Today, let's talk about something practical. We've discussed too much theory earlier, so today it's time for practice. Whether you're in the futures position or a spot user, you can take a look. Previously, we mentioned not to chase after price increases; many friends are thinking about short selling? Where should one consider short selling or the opportunity to cut losses? Users who have been observing the market can see that currently, there are two struggling points: one is the high point at 80,000, and the other is the support at 78,000. Although both have had short-term breakouts, the recovery strength shows that they can basically be reclaimed during the Asian or US trading session, meaning the recovery time will not exceed 12 hours. Both sellers are competing in this range, and during such a situation, we need to consider the impact of news. Today, the U.S. military operations against Iran were announced, and the short-term competition has been won by the air force. This point was explained last weekend, so there’s no need to elaborate further. The result displayed is a breakout at 78,000, achieving the position of 77,350, and currently, it has fallen again, with the price near 77,800.

Especially in the context of other news, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates by 25 basis points in September has risen to 57%. Let me remind everyone that this kind of probability in the market has rarely been wrong if it exceeds 60%; furthermore, if there is no rate hike in September, the probability will only increase further. Economic data and non-farm data all indicate that the problems faced by the U.S. are greater than we think. After today's military operations, Brent crude oil prices rose by 3% to $91, and U.S. bond yields followed suit. Earlier, I noted that if the Iranian problem is not resolved during the rate-cutting cycle and oil prices rise, then rate hikes will definitely come. What problems will rate hikes bring to the cryptocurrency market? It has been discussed that once rates are raised, investment in the cryptocurrency market by tech companies will inevitably decrease, and even profitable firms may withdraw. The capital flight will pose a fatal blow to the crypto market.

To summarize: the above issues can only affect the short and medium term; regarding interest rate hikes, do not think the probability is extremely low. The key point is that rate hikes can save U.S. bonds and reduce inflation. Currently, what is maturing and needs to be repaid are mostly short-term old U.S. bonds, and rate hikes can continue to borrow new to repay old. There is a certain probability of rate hikes this year. For those considering short selling or cutting losses, levels around or above 80,000 can be considered; as for those looking to go long, it’s better to reconsider after the rate hike, at least wait for the U.S. to review the plan for limited strikes against Iran. The short-term downward pressure is enough, but entering short positions at the wrong time is risky; the closer to 80,000, the safer it is. It’s the most stable way to enter short positions above 80,000. As for the depth of the decline, do not estimate it too deeply; being able to exit at the 73,000 level can mitigate risks. If you want to go long, wait for notification!

The original article was produced by the public account "On-chain Science." For assistance, please contact directly!

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。