Brothers, in the journey of the rivers and lakes, do not fear the distance, encountering kindred spirits along the way. Hello everyone, I am Jiang Ye.

⚠️ The following is only a technical analysis of the market and is for communication and reference purposes only. It does not constitute any investment advice. The market is highly volatile; contracts must strictly control positions and set stop losses.

On the first day of September, there were no surprises in the market. It experienced high-level fluctuations with no substantial positive news. The favorable conditions in the long cycle have yet to arrive, and the major players are quite conservative at the end of the month and the beginning of the next. Overall, it is a pattern of wide fluctuations and tug-of-war. The core variable this week is the non-farm payroll data on Friday, which will directly affect the expectations for the mid-month CPI and subsequently determine the Federal Reserve's policy direction in September. From the current data, the probability of a rate hike in September is not yet prominent, and it is more likely to maintain a flat interest rate. Therefore, before the data is released, the market is unlikely to show a clean trend, instead, it will continue to fluctuate.

1. Current Real-Time Market Status

Bitcoin

• 15-Minute Cycle

  : TD‑Down 8, the downward count has reached 8, only one step away from the 9’s turning point. The price is running near the lower Bollinger band of 78203, MACD green bars are releasing, KDJ K21, J20 has entered the low-overbought area. If it drops a bit more, once the TD9 turning point appears, a short-term rebound will trigger.

• 1-Hour Cycle

  : TD‑Down 5, the downward count is still progressing, the price is running below the middle Bollinger band of 79165, MACD shows green bars, KDJ J value at -5 has already dropped to the oversold level. The long cycle leans bearish, but the short-term drop speed has become too fast, creating a demand for rebound repair.

• High point 79250, low point 78189, currently fluctuating at a low level, likely to trigger TD9 rebound at any time.

  

Ethereum

• 15-Minute Cycle

  : TD‑Down 8, synchronized with Bitcoin, downward count has reached 8, approaching the 9’s turning point. The price is near the lower Bollinger band of 2455, MACD green bars are weak, KDJ K29 is at a low position. If it drops a bit more to TD9, there will also be a rebound.

• 1-Hour Cycle

  : TD‑Down 5, the price is running below the middle Bollinger band of 2487, MACD green bars have almost disappeared, KDJ J value of 2.89 is oversold. The long cycle is bearish, but the short-term is oversold.

• High point 2490, low point 2453, currently fluctuating at a low level, highly consistent with Bitcoin’s rhythm.

  

XAU Gold Current Price

• 15-Minute Cycle

  : TD‑Down 2, price has broken below the lower Bollinger band of 4436, MACD green bars are expanding, KDJ K13, J-8.95, deeply oversold.

• 1-Hour Cycle

  : TD‑Down 2, price is near the lower Bollinger band of 4425, MACD red bars are weak, KDJ K48, J22 is at a low point.

• Last Friday, after effectively breaking below 4570, this position has turned from support to resistance. The short term is clearly bearish. However, the long cycle's bullish trend has not been completely destroyed; the key is to watch the defense at 4340-4317. Only effective breaking below will truly turn it bearish. Currently, it is oversold but the bottom has not been confirmed; do not directly enter at the bottom, wait for a secondary bottoming signal.

2. Jiang Ye's Core Judgments

First, today's rhythm: down first and then up, overall bearish fluctuations.  Bitcoin and Ethereum are at TD‑Down 8 for 15 minutes; if they drop a little more, they will hit the 9’s turning point, and a short-term oversold rebound is imminent. Therefore, today’s trend is likely to be: consolidate and drop a bit, create a TD9 low point, and then surge again. After the surge, it will reach the resistance level and then pull back. Overall, it is a slow fluctuation that leans bearish, neither a one-sided drop nor a one-sided rise.

Second, the two "do not chase" principles must be obeyed. Do not chase shorts below the 4-hour golden line— the price has dropped near support, chasing shorts may easily be swept out by the TD9 rebound; do not chase longs above 2500, 78500— chasing longs near resistance has a poor risk-reward ratio and may easily encounter a surge followed by a drop. These two positions represent not chasing shorts at support and not chasing longs at resistance; the intermediate range is the operational space.

Third, no favorable conditions in the long cycle, watch out for the continued upward trend.  Powell's speech was neutral, inflation hasn't met expectations, and interest rates remain high; this week's non-farm payrolls are key. Before the data is released, there will be no large-scale entry of funds, and the market will just fluctuate within a range. For Bitcoin, closely watch the level around 82000 above, and 76500 support below; Ethereum persists in the wide fluctuation of 2500-2400, with 2200 and 2800 being key levels for future bulls and bears.

Fourth, gold is short-term bearish, while the long cycle's bullishness is not broken.  The short term leans bearish after breaking below 4570. Today will likely continue the fluctuation or weak rebound. However, the mid-line bullish structure has not been completely destroyed, and 4340-4317 is the last line of defense. Currently, it is oversold but do not enter at the bottom; wait for the appearance of a secondary bottoming signal; the core focus is on the non-farm payrolls on Friday.

3. Daily Operational Strategy

Overall Rhythm

Down first and then up, overall bearish. TD8 is near the turning point; if it drops a bit more, it will trigger a rebound; then short at the resistance. Operate within the range, do not chase a one-sided trend.

BTC Operation

Short Position (Main Idea, Rebound Under Pressure)

• In the live room, continue holding the short position at 78500, or add to the short position on a rebound at 79000-79100, with a stop loss at 79500 and a target of 76700→76000.

• For aggressive traders, lightly try shorting near the current price of 78368, with a stop loss at 78700 and a target of 77500→76700.

• Note: Do not chase shorts below the 4-hour golden line. If it has dropped below 77500, do not continue chasing shorts; wait for a rebound to short.

Long Position (Place Orders for Low Acquisition, Do Not Chase)

• Place buy orders at 75800, stop loss at 75400, target 77500→78500.

• Establish a slight long position near 76500 if it stabilizes, stop loss at 76000, target 78000→78500.

ETH Operation

Short Position (Main Idea, Rebound Under Pressure)

• Aggressive traders can hold short positions at 2466, or enter again when it rises; short at the rebound of 2500-2510, with a stop loss at 2525 and a target of 2420→2400.

• Try shorting lightly near the current price of 2459, with a stop loss at 2480 and a target of 2420→2400.

• Note: Do not chase longs above 2500; once near 2500, it is a chance to go short.

Long Position (Buy on Support, Do Not Chase)

• 2366-2355

  Start paying attention to long positions; 2320 is strong support; stabilize before placing long positions, take profit at 2460→2480.

• If it pulls back near 2380, try a slight long position, stop loss at 2350, target 2450→2480.

Gold XAU Operation

Short-term bearish, do not enter at the bottom; prioritize rebounding to short.

• Short Position

  : Short at the rebound of 4490-4530 pressure range, target 4430→4400, if it breaks down, look at 4340-4317.

• Long Position (For Reference Only, Wait for Signals)

  : If it stabilizes at the key support of 4340-4317, consider going long after a secondary bottoming signal appears; current advice is to not directly catch the bottom.

• Key focus on Friday's non-farm payroll data; operate cautiously before the data is released.

4. Summary of Key Price Levels

Summary: The opening of September is dominated by fluctuations, and without any substantial positive news, there is no one-sided view. BTC/ETH 15-minute TD8 is nearing a turning point; down first and then up, rebound to pressure before going short. Do not chase shorts below the 4-hour golden line; do not chase longs above 2500/78500. Operate high short and low buy within the range. Gold is short-term bearish and oversold, do not catch the bottom, wait for the secondary bottoming signal; the non-farm payrolls on Friday will determine the direction. Strictly control positions, and ensure all trades have stop losses.

⚠️ Risk Warning: The above content is only a technical analysis of the market for reference and communication purposes, and does not constitute any investment advice. The financial market is highly volatile, and contract trading carries extreme risks; please engage in rational trading, strictly control positions, and implement stop losses at all times, as profits and losses are self-responsible.

Thank you to all the family members for your trust and companionship. The market changes rapidly; steady compounding is the long-term approach. I am Jiang Ye, see you next time.

For real-time changes during the session, if you want real-time price levels, feel free to communicate and follow up. WeChat, three lines jyx9188

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