Yesterday it was still grinding around 2441, today Ethereum has returned to 2463. More importantly, the 4-hour MACD has re-crossed to golden cross from a death cross last week—this means the short-term "bearish" judgment needs to be corrected. Additionally, there's a lot of news: the US-Iran conflict is escalating, Trump is calling for interest rate cuts, and Strategy continues to increase positions. This article will break down the market conditions and news, so you will know which positions to watch.

01 Market: 4-hour MACD re-crosses to golden cross, short-term stabilizes from bearish

The price has risen from 2441 to 2463, above the 4-hour EMA7 (2461.03) and EMA30 (2455.78) short-term moving averages. This indicates that this rebound has buying support and is not merely a retracement.

The most obvious signal is the 4-hour MACD: DIF (1.16) has crossed above DEA (0.14), and the histogram has turned positive (+2.60). Last week it was in a high position death cross indicating bearishness, and now it has re-crossed to a golden cross, suggesting that the downward momentum has weakened, and the short-term is entering a stabilization and recovery phase.

The 1-hour level is also in a golden cross (DIF 13.36 greater than DEA 9.90, histogram +6.91); although the smaller level is still in a death cross, the histogram value has shrunk to -0.77, close to the zero axis, indicating that the pullback is narrowing.

Conclusion: The resonance repair of large and small cycles means that yesterday's "short-term bearish" judgment should be corrected to "oscillation stabilization." However, stabilization does not equal reversal; whether it can continue upwards depends on the upper pressure.

02 Key Positions: Use Fibonacci to outline attack and defense zones

This wave has fallen from 2566.26 to 2386.00, which is a complete retracement. Using Fibonacci, the key levels are marked as follows:

• First upper resistance 2497.40 (61.8% retracement level), standing above here means the rebound can continue.

• Second upper resistance 2527.68 (78.6% retracement level), corresponding to the previous rebound high area.

• Strong upper resistance 2566.26 (previous high), the peak of the entire wave up.

• Lower support 2428.54 (23.6% retracement level), which is also a platform that has been oscillating repeatedly recently.

• Lower lifeline 2386.00 (0% retracement level), a low that has been tested multiple times previously; falling below here confirms a reversal to bearish.

Conclusion: The current price is 2463, which is in the range of 2428—2497. Look upwards at 2497 and downwards at 2386; whoever is effectively broken first will make the direction clearer.

03 News: Three things determine short-term sentiment

First, the US-Iran conflict is escalating (bearish). Trump stated he would respond to Iranian attacks on US troops, and the US is considering a limited strike plan against Iran; Brent crude oil has already risen by 3% to $91. The rise in geopolitical risks will suppress risk assets, which is the biggest uncertainty right now and could lead to sudden moves at any time.

Second, Trump calls for interest rate cuts (neutral to bullish). He said the US GDP could grow by 20% and urged the Federal Reserve to cut rates. However, note that the current actual growth rate is only 1.5% and inflation is 3.7%; "GDP growing by 20%" is clearly an exaggerated statement, and the market will discount this. Such statements may add fuel to rate cut expectations in the short term, but real outcomes depend on the September interest rate meeting—do not treat it as a sure thing.

Third, institutions and reserves continue to increase holdings (bullish in the medium term). Bessenet states that the value of US Bitcoin reserves has exceeded $15 billion; Strategy has purchased 4,603 BTC at an average price of $80,318, costing $369.7 million; the net inflow into BTC exchange wallets over the past 30 days is only 319 BTC, indicating overall selling pressure is not large. These are the supportive logic at the medium term level, not reasons for chasing higher in the short term.

04 Operational Reference (for reference only, not advice)

Bullish thoughts: If it stabilizes around 2428—2440, and the 4-hour does not break 2441, one can try longing with a light position, stop loss below 2386, targets 2497, 2527.

Bearish thoughts: If it rebounds to 2497—2527 encountering pressure, and the 4-hour closes bearish, one can try shorting with a light position, stop loss above 2530, targets 2454, 2428.

Core discipline: Currently, it is oscillating and stabilizing, not trending; the most taboo is chasing high and cutting losses. Plus the geopolitical news could spark sudden moves at any time, so positions must be light, and stop losses must be in place.

The content above is based on technical logic derived from market screenshots and publicly available information and is for reference only, not constituting any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, and contract trading carries significant risk; please make rational decisions based on your own risk tolerance, strictly control your positions, and always use stop losses.

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Data source: The market data and candlestick charts in this article come from user-provided ETH market screenshots (4-hour, 1-hour, smaller levels, 2026-09-01); news comes from AiCoin's September 1st news snapshot and Jinshi data, and the points and data in the text are as indicated in the screenshots. | Verification date: 2026-09-01

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