Many people didn't understand this wave of Ethereum's market. At the beginning of August, it was still hovering around 1850, and in less than three weeks, it surged to 2566, then started to fall back. The current price is around 2441, and the 4-hour MACD has already crossed to the downside—short-term is weak, but the larger cycle's upward structure hasn't broken. Today, let's clarify the market and focus on two key levels.

01 4-hour level: Pullback after reaching 2566, high-level bearish crossover

First, look at the larger cycle. Ethereum's recent rise has been strong: from 1852.37 on August 8, it reached a peak of 2566.26, with an increase of about 38% in less than three weeks. This was the strongest bullish trend in August.

However, after peaking, the price wasn't able to hold, and it has now fallen back to around 2441, down about 5% from the high. This is not a minor correction—the middle band of the 4-hour Bollinger Bands (20,2) is at 2482.55, the upper band is at 2524.09, and the lower band is at 2441.02. The current price has dropped below the middle band and is touching the lower band, indicating that this pullback is real, not a fake drop.

A more critical signal lies in the MACD. The DIF (24.83) has crossed below the DEA (29.63), and the histogram has turned negative (-9.60), forming a high-level bearish crossover. This pattern usually indicates a depletion of upward momentum; for new highs in the short term, a re-accumulation of strength is needed below.

02 Smaller level: 2386—2534 range oscillation, moving along the lower edge

Chart 1: ETH small-level candlestick, recently oscillating in the 2386—2534 range (source: user-provided market screenshot)

Switching to the smaller level for a clearer view: ETH has been oscillating between 2386 and 2534, currently at 2441, which is in the lower half of the range.

The middle band of the smaller Bollinger Bands is at 2507.05, and the price is below this middle band; the MACD also shows a bearish crossover (DIF 3.42 below DEA 7.15, histogram is negative).

This means that the signals from both the larger and smaller levels are consistent: short-term weakness, focus shifting downwards. However, note that the lower edge of the 2386 range has not been broken— as long as it holds, it can still be seen as oscillation, and one shouldn't rush to call for a bearish trend.

03 Key positions: Focus on these two today

For upper resistance, look at 2486—2507. This area is the range from the lower to the middle band of the smaller Bollinger Bands and has been a point of contention before. If the price rallies to this level and cannot break above with volume, it will be an opportunity to reduce positions or lightly test the shorts.

For lower support, look at 2386. This is the lower edge of the smaller range and is also the lifeline for bulls. As long as 2386 holds, the oscillation around 2441 remains within normal range; once it breaks down with volume below 2386, the next target will be to test 2350 or even lower areas.

As for the larger levels of 2566 and 1852—one is the peak of this rise, and the other is the starting point, both are relatively far from the current short-term situation, and can just be regarded as background references without needing to watch them daily.

04 Trading references (for reference only, not investment advice)

Bearish strategy: If the price rebounds to 2486—2507 and meets resistance, with a small candle formation on the smaller level, a light short position can be tried, with a stop-loss set above 2520 (corresponding to the Bollinger upper band area of 2524—2528), targeting first at 2386.

Bullish strategy: If the price pulls back to stabilize at 2386—2400, and a stopping signal appears on the smaller level, a light long position can be tried, with a stop-loss set below 2360, and targeting at 2441 and 2486.

Core discipline: Now it is a range oscillation; it is most taboo to chase orders in the middle position. Regardless of the direction, positions should be light, and stop-losses must be in place.

The above content is a technical logic inference based on market screenshots, for reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, and contract trading carries significant risk, please make rational decisions based on your own risk tolerance, strictly control positions, and set stop-losses.

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