Source: BIT Securities

Last Friday, at the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Waller finally spoke, and his opening remarks were clear hawkish signals: If the core inflation in the United States does not clearly and quickly fall back to the 2% target, the Fed "has work to do".

He did not promise a rate hike in September, but outlined the policy path clearly—2% is a hard target, short-term interest rates are the main tool, and if inflation does not meet expectations, the work is not done.

1. The Hawkish Confidence: Data Indeed Does Not Favor

Waller's hawkish stance is backed by data support. The inflation indicator most focused on by the Fed—the PCE price index—has a 12-month change rate of 3.7%, with a six-month change rate even reaching 4.1%; the comparable CPI index is also at a high level, and both the core PCE and CPI indicators cannot be brought down.

These indicators are not perfect, and the picture pieced together is clear: The U.S. economy is not weak enough to need a rate cut for relief, and inflation is not good enough to warrant a wait-and-see approach. With neither end to rely on, the Fed can only choose to endure.

The market immediately voted with its feet: The three major U.S. stock indices closed down collectively, and Bitcoin, which had been rising, also encountered resistance and fell back to around $78,000.

2. A Thought-Provoking Question: Will the One Promoted by Trump Really Act Impartially?

Waller's hawkish remarks naturally suppress U.S. stocks in the short term. However, a thought-provoking question arises: Does this person, who was personally promoted to the position of Chair of the Fed by Trump, truly intend to act impartially?

Not necessarily. From another perspective, at this juncture, Waller taking a hawkish stance might be more meaningful than adopting a dovish approach.

First is the maintenance of credibility. He must maintain a clear and firm attitude towards inflation, or else doubts in the market will likely not cease.

Second is the compromise with reality—he really cannot easily raise interest rates. Currently, a significant portion of U.S. inflation stems from rising oil prices due to the U.S.-Iran conflict and the chain reaction of tariff policies, which are fundamentally linked to Trump's policies. Using interest rate hikes to suppress this inflation is inefficient and could directly harm Trump's electoral prospects during a sensitive period before the midterm elections.

Therefore, using hawkish remarks for expectation management, while not implementing rate hikes for now, has become the most cost-effective choice for Waller: it maintains the independence of the central bank's image while not harming the political interests of his promoter.

3. Following This Logic, a Counterintuitive Deduction

If this judgment holds, then the current concern among some investors that "U.S. stocks will continue to decline before the midterm elections" may not hold water.

The logical chain is as follows: Waller's interest rate hike resembles a feint, with the policy focus essentially aimed at stabilizing the situation; and for Trump’s electoral prospects, U.S. stocks might actually continue to rise before the midterm elections.

Of course, it must be emphasized that this is just a set of conjectures. Investors can certainly layout based on this reasoning, but conjecture is simply conjecture—wise practice involves hedging risks in judgment.

4. Before the September Meeting, Two Pieces of Data Determine Fate

Before the September Fed meeting, there is still a nonfarm payroll report and a CPI inflation report to be released, along with several key data points interspersed.

The Fed under Waller clearly relies more on data than its predecessors. Interestingly, the recent several employment reports have all fallen short of expectations, and not by a small margin—this means that any further signals of weakening could severely undermine the market's bets on a rate hike in September.

5. Final Thoughts

If we break down Waller's speech, there are actually two layers: On the surface, it is a strong stance against inflation, maintaining the independence of the Fed; underneath, it is a web woven from political constraints and the structure of现实 inflation, determining that there is a high probability of a gap between "saying" and "doing".

For investors, rather than betting on whether the "hawkishness" is genuine, it is better to focus on something more honest—the nonfarm payrolls and CPI. Statements can manage expectations, but data will not cooperate with performances. Before September, every intense market fluctuation will likely revolve around these two reports.

Disclaimer: This article represents the author's logical deductions and market analysis based on public information, does not represent the views of BIT, and does not constitute buy or sell recommendations for any securities, derivatives, or trading platforms. The specific brokerage names or trading strategies mentioned in the text (such as options hedging) are for theoretical case illustration only and do not constitute any form of business promotion or trading guidance.

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