Brothers, in the journey of the river and lake, fear not the distance; in the process of gaming, one encounters like-minded friends. Hello everyone, I am Jiang Ye.

⚠️ The following is only a technical logical deduction of the market, for reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is highly volatile, and contracts must strictly control positions and set stop losses carefully.

Yesterday on the public account and video account, I focused on a topic with everyone: This rebound, is it a repair of a downward continuation or the beginning of a trend reversal? Today, the morning market has already provided the answer in the most direct way — the rebound is weak, and we are once again probing lower.

Bitcoin dropped from 79400 all the way to 77000, Ether fell from 2534 to 2384, and gold dropped even more severely, crashing from 4490 directly to 4407, with all three products plunging simultaneously, erasing yesterday's slight rebound completely with a single bearish candle. This is what I have repeatedly emphasized: Before there is no significant warming in the macro environment, all rebounds should be treated primarily as repairs, and do not easily call for a reversal.

1. Current Real-Time Market Status

Bitcoin Current Price 77452

• 1-Hour Cycle

  : TD-Down7, downcount is progressing, price is operating near the lower Bollinger band at 77440. The MACD green bars continue to expand, DIF-91 crosses below DEA-58, bearish momentum is being released. KDJ is at a low of around 33, and has not fully entered oversold territory.

• 15-Minute Cycle

  : TD-Up1 has just started, MACD DIF-216 crosses above DEA-230 forming a golden cross, red bars appear, KDJ is turning up from a low position. A small-level oversold rebound signal has appeared, but this is only a repair at the 15-minute level, the strength is limited.

• The high was 79400, the low was 77000, currently stabilizing near a low position.

ETH (Ethereum) Current Price 2408

• 1-Hour Cycle

  : TD-Down7, price is closely sticking to the lower Bollinger band at 2402. The MACD green bars are expanding, DIF-8 crosses below DEA-2, bears are dominant. KDJ K24, J7, has entered the oversold area.

• 15-Minute Cycle

  : TD-Down3, the downcount is still progressing, MACD is struggling near the zero axis, KDJ K25, J5, is deeply oversold. The rebound momentum is weaker than Bitcoin, and no clear golden cross signal has appeared.

• The high was 2534, the low was 2384, currently weakly oscillating near the low.

XAU Gold Current Price 4409

• 1-Hour Cycle

  : TD-Down7, price has broken below the lower Bollinger band at 4436, MACD green bars are expanding, KDJ K21 is oversold.

• 15-Minute Cycle

  : TD-Down9! The downcount has completed number 9, and a time inflection point has appeared! KDJ K10, J-9, is deeply oversold to the extreme. Although the MACD green bars are still present, TD9 + oversold resonance means that a retaliatory rebound may occur at any moment.

• The high was 4490, the low was 4407, currently oscillating at a low level after a sharp drop this morning.

2. Macro and Geopolitical Background

Last week, Wall Street's Jackson Hole speech was overall neutral, not releasing clear interest rate hike signals, but also not hinting at a rate cut. The core statement is: This year's inflation has not yet reached expectations, current policy still relies on data, and may maintain interest rates unchanged. This means the market has neither major bullish nor bearish signals, and the overall environment is in a "waiting for data" oscillation pattern.

However, this morning there is a new variable: The geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have escalated, causing oil prices to skyrocket instantly. By common sense, geopolitical conflicts should drive up gold as a safe haven, but today gold instead plummeted, and the reason is simple — a strong dollar suppressed precious metals, while risk appetite in the market decreased, leading to capital flowing out from risky assets (cryptos) and precious metals simultaneously, creating a four-killing scenario of "stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies."

However, it should be noted that geopolitical conflicts are a double-edged sword; if the situation worsens further, gold's safe-haven property will be reactivated, so the current sharp drop in gold may actually present a short-term oversold opportunity.

3. Jiang Ye's Core Judgment: Rebound or Reversal?

The topic discussed yesterday has been answered by the market today: It is not a reversal, but a consolidation after a drop. There are three reasons:

First, The rebound lacks volume. The rebound from the low yesterday had small K-line bodies and shrinking trading volume, indicating that bulls had no incremental funds entering, it was merely a passive rebound caused by short covering. Such a rebound will retract as soon as it meets pressure.

Second, The large cycle bearish structure has not been broken. BTC and ETH on the 1-hour TD-Down have only reached 7, the downcount has not been completed, the MACD is operating below the zero axis, and moving averages are turning downwards to exert pressure. Gold also has a 1-hour TD-Down7, similarly in a downward process. No signals for a bottoming reversal have emerged in the larger cycle.

Third, The macro environment has not warmed. Walsh is neutral but not dovish, inflation is below standard, interest rates are maintained at high levels, and geopolitical conflicts bring uncertainty. In such an environment, funds will not flow back to risky assets on a large scale.

However, The demand for a short-term oversold rebound does exist. Gold has a 15-minute TD-Down9 + deep oversold, BTC has a 15-minute MACD golden cross + TD-Up1 starting, these are all small-level rebound signals. Therefore, today's rhythm is very clear: In the daytime, there will be a slight decline and small-level divergence, followed by a rebound repair; in the evening, we will observe the direction in the US market. Overall, it is still a consolidating box, and until a breakthrough occurs, we should not expect too much drastic drops, but neither should we hope for a one-sided large increase.

4. Daily Operational Strategy

Overall Rhythm

The daytime will mainly be a fluctuating trend with bullish repairs, do not chase long positions; wait for the rebound to reach resistance levels, then layout short positions in the evening's US market. The current price is experiencing a gradual decline, and small-level divergences are constructing, a rebound is imminent but the height is limited, exit at resistance.

Bitcoin Operations

Long Position (Daytime Repair, buy low and do not chase)

• After a pullback stabilizes in the 76500-76000 range, which is supported by the 4-hour golden line, long positions can be set, stop loss at 75700, target 78200→78600.

• For aggressive traders, lightly try long positions near 77000, stop loss at 76700, target 77800→78200.

Short Position (Rebound under pressure, focus on US market)

• Real-time short positions at the rebound 78500-78600, stop loss at 79000 (400 points), targets 77500→76500→76000.

• For cautious traders, wait for a stagnation near the resistance zone 78300-78900 to short, strong pressure at 79300-79800.

Ether Operations

Long Position (Daytime Repair, buy low and do not chase)

• After a pullback stabilizes in the 2400-2385 range, layout light long positions, stop loss at 2360, targets 2460→2480.

• A deeper pullback 2370-2340 offers stronger support; stabilization allows for increased long positions.

Short Position (Rebound under pressure, focus on US market)

• Short positions near the rebound 2480, stop loss at 2500, targets 2410→2360.

• For cautious traders, layout short positions under pressure 2435-2465, strong pressure at 2500-2530.

Gold XAU Operations

After a quick drop this morning, currently TD-Down9 + deep oversold, the demand for a short-term rebound is strong.

• Long Position (Oversold Rebound)

  : After a pullback stabilizes near 4430-4445, consider going long, targets 4460, and for upward breakout see 4480-4530. Stop loss below 4400.

• Short Position (Rebound under pressure)

  : If there is resistance at the rebound to 4479-4499, consider going short, targets 4450, and if it breaks below look to 4430-4400.

• Note: Gold is currently very volatile, prioritize risk control in oscillating markets, do not rush to chase prices when they rise; wait for the trend to stabilize before taking action.

5. Key Price Summary

Summary: Yesterday's "rebound or reversal" has already been answered by today's market — it is not a reversal, but a consolidation after a drop. Currently, all three products are collectively oversold, during the day, first look for small-level repair rebounds, but the height of the rebound is limited, at the pressure level it is still an opportunity to short. In terms of operations during the day, buy low and do not chase long; in the evening, the US market is under pressure on rebounds and then short, maintaining a range oscillation approach, strictly controlling positions, and all trades must carry stop losses.

⚠️ Risk Warning: The above content is only a technical logical deduction of the market for reference and communication, and does not constitute any investment advice. The financial market is highly volatile, and contract trading is extremely risky, please trade rationally, strictly control positions, set your own stop losses, and be responsible for your profits and losses.

Thank you to all family members for your trust and companionship; the market changes rapidly, and stable compounding is the long-term path. I am Jiang Ye, see you in the next issue.

For on-the-spot changes during trading, if you want real-time points, we can communicate and follow up together. WeChat, three lines jyx9188

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