Does the SOL spot ETF build positions in the same direction as the whales, and does this establish a bullish signal?

CN
4 hours ago

According to AiCoin data, during the statistical period from August 24 to 28, 2026, the SOL spot ETF recorded net inflows of approximately $154 million, with Bitwise's SOL spot ETF (BSOL) contributing about $99.47 million in weekly net inflows, accounting for around 60% of the total, making it one of the main channels for institutions to increase their SOL holdings through traditional products in the US stock market. Additionally, the historical total net inflow for BSOL has accumulated to about $1.02 billion, indicating a continuous accumulation characteristic of the ETF channel's allocation to SOL. Following this, from August 31 at 23:15 to 08:44 the next day, within a window of less than 10 hours, an on-chain address starting with 0x13da continuously opened long positions on SOL, accumulating about 282,700 SOL, corresponding to a transaction amount of approximately $29.623 million, with a weighted transaction price of about $104.794 per coin, which closely aligns with the current price of SOL reported as around $104.8, making this price point a major cost area and current price range for whales. In the ETF segment, concentrated net buying within a week and large on-chain addresses rapidly establishing long positions of nearly $30 million nominal size in subsequent time windows show a synchronous bullish resonance pattern for these two types of funds. Whether this signal has sustained bullish reference value will be the main variable for further analysis.

ETF Weekly Inflows of $154 Million, US Market Continues to Bet on SOL

From the perspective of the US stock market, the demand for SOL allocation continues to be reflected through the spot ETF channel during the recent statistical period. According to a single external statistic, between August 24 and 28, 2026, the SOL spot ETF recorded total weekly net inflows of about $154 million, with Bitwise's BSOL product contributing approximately $99.47 million, accounting for around 60% of the total net inflow, continuing to play a key role as a main entry point for traditional market allocation to SOL. The nearly $150 million in net buying indicates that US market funds had already been increasing their SOL positions at a relatively substantial pace before the whales concentrated their positions on-chain.

When looking at the accumulation period since the product's launch, BSOL's historical total net inflow stands at about $1.02 billion, showing no significant reversal of funds entering SOL through the ETF channel since its inception, but rather a continuous accumulation characteristic. However, it is important to emphasize that all current ETF-related data comes from a single external source, with a medium level of internal confidence, and the report does not provide a longer-term comparison series, making it impossible to determine the specific percentile position of this week's $154 million net inflow in history. Therefore, at this stage, the net inflow from the US market can be viewed as a bullish signal of reference value, but its strength and sustainability still rely on further validation with subsequent multi-period data and multi-source statistics.

Bitwise BSOL Accounts for 60% of Net Inflows

During the statistical week from August 24 to 28, 2026, Bitwise's SOL spot ETF—BSOL—recorded net inflows of approximately $99.47 million, representing nearly 60% of the total net inflow of about $154 million from all SOL spot ETFs during the same period. In other words, of the new funds entering SOL through the ETF channel disclosed this week, more than half were allocated through the single product BSOL.

From the structural perspective, BSOL is no longer just "one of many products" but has become one of the main entry points for institutions to participate in SOL allocation through traditional market tools, with its subscription and redemption scale serving as a significant barometer for short-term sentiment and allocation tendencies. However, the report currently only provides specific net inflow numbers for BSOL, while data on other SOL spot ETFs' weekly net inflows or outflows have not been disclosed, making it impossible to further break down the fund distribution among different products, the differences in investor structures, or whether any significant substitution effects exist. Therefore, the current judgment that "BSOL accounts for 60% of net inflows" can only remain within the structural observation based on publicly available data.

30,000 SOL Acquired in 10 Hours, Long Whale Emerges

According to AiCoin data, an on-chain wallet starting with 0x13da began large-scale long positions on SOL at 23:15 on August 31, 2026, with the long position operations extending overnight until 08:44 the following day, with a window for complete position establishment of less than 10 hours. During this period, the address accumulated approximately 282,700 SOL, corresponding to a nominal transaction amount of about $29.623 million, with a weighted transaction price of about $104.794 per coin. The report mentions that the current price of SOL is approximately $104.8, indicating that the cost area for this concentrated long position closely aligns with the current price, resulting in a short-term profit and loss fluctuation mainly around the cost line.

Behaviorally, acquiring nearly $30 million in long positions in less than 10 hours is closer to concentrated position building following clear directional judgment rather than the conventional method of probing the market with small incremental purchases: the concentrated timing, unified scale, and relatively converged price range typically indicate that the operator holds a strong short-term bullish view in this price area. However, existing materials only broadly record as "long SOL" and "long positions," without specifying the exact contract form (perpetual or delivery), disclosing leverage multiples, or providing more background on the funding sources and historical operation styles of the 0x13da address. Under the premise of unclear contract types, leverage levels, and operator attributes, this position's risk exposure and motive interpretation can only remain at cautious observation at the behavioral level, and should not be simply viewed as a validated bullish signal.

$104 Becomes Whale Cost Zone, Short-Term Bull-Bear Showdown

According to AiCoin data, 0x13da concentrated on buying about 282,700 SOL on August 31, with a weighted transaction price of about $104.794 per coin, which can be regarded as the main cost zone for this address's current SOL long position. The report also notes that the current market price of SOL is around $104.8, nearly overlapping with this area. This means that at this moment, the nominal position of the whale is basically at the breakeven zone, where every fluctuation around $104 may directly affect whether they choose to continue holding, reduce their position, or adjust their position structure, making this price point potentially sensitive to short-term bull-bear battles.

However, from a technical perspective, existing materials only provide this single address's weighted cost and its proximity to the current price, without offering longer-term price trends, areas of dense trading, or order book distribution, and lack transaction concentration information for other addresses at the same price range. In the absence of broader market depth and technical indicators supporting these points, the $104 area can only be marked as "an observation area where the whale's cost overlaps with the current price," rather than being seriously recognized as a consensus support or resistance level; whether it evolves into a key technical threshold remains to be further validated by subsequent on-chain and market data.

Institutional Participation Combined with On-Chain Large Holders, SOL Bullish Story Has Just Begun

According to AiCoin data, at the current stage, SOL presents two aligned signals in the same direction: on one side, the US stock market's spot ETFs recorded approximately $154 million in weekly net inflows between August 24 and 28, 2026, with BSOL contributing around $99.47 million and historical cumulative net inflows of about $1.02 billion, reflecting a continued purchase through ETFs in the traditional market; on the other side, the on-chain address 0x13da concentrated on opening long positions of approximately 282,700 SOL in less than 10 hours, with a nominal size of about $29.623 million and a weighted cost price of about $104.794, closely aligning with the current price of around $104.8, forming a structural bullish narrative support for "ETF net buying + concentrated long building by large on-chain whales" within the same time window. It is important to emphasize that the above ETF and address data comes from a single statistical source, with a medium level of internal confidence, and the current material also clearly does not provide any quantitative forecasts for subsequent net inflow sizes, whale liquidation rhythms, or price paths. Therefore, whether this bullish resonance can continue needs to be closely observed with three variables: whether the SOL spot ETF maintains or enhances its net inflow trend, whether the proportion of BSOL in the overall ETF net inflows continues to remain high or shows significant changes, and whether the 0x13da address chooses to expand its position, reduce its holdings, or remain on the sidelines within the current price range. Before these key indicators become clear, investors should regard the current signals as structural observations with medium confidence rather than definitive directional guidance, maintaining sufficient risk awareness and position flexibility.

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