Why is Bitcoin fluctuating at this stage?

1️⃣ The previous surge happened too quickly and needs to be digested.

This round of increase was initially triggered by a historical-level short squeeze, followed by about $2.23 billion in ETF funds taking over. However, the short squeeze fuel along the way has been largely consumed, so the marginal momentum of the previous 'squeeze' increase is declining.

2️⃣ The resistance above 81K–85K is not an ordinary pressure level, but a genuine chip wall. This is actually the most important reason I believe for the fluctuations. In other words, every time BTC rises to around 81K or 82K, it encounters increasingly real selling pressure.

3️⃣ Around 75K is not a very comfortable shorting position.

Recently, ETF funds have shown a significant return flow again. Farside data shows that from August 17 to 27, there were almost continuous positive inflows, with a net outflow of about $202 million reappearing after Warsh's speech on the 28th.

This indicates that there is money ready to step in below, but the strength of the funds has not stabilized enough to create a one-sided trend.

The main point is to look at the macro environment itself, which is currently a “counterforce between two forces.” Treasury vs. Federal Reserve, money printing anxiety pervades everyone in America. We are currently stuck at a very typical re-pricing stage of "support below, supply above."

Therefore, there is neither enough reason for a drastic drop nor enough new funds to completely absorb the chips above 85K at once.

What can we do if it doesn’t fluctuate?

However, fluctuation is a good thing, it grows horizontally and rises higher!

Let’s just be patient!

The Bitcoin:native range at this stage (75000-82000) is similar to the value range that started after the last bear market (34000-47000).

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