"Jiang Feng Trading Strategy Diary" Issue Thirty-Five
Last night, Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's hawkish remarks caused Bitcoin's price to plunge to around 768500, which also expedited our views from Issue Thirty-Four for short positions to take profit at 80800～81500 and 2515～2600. Currently, the first targets at 78000 and 2400 have been achieved.
Last night, Waller emphasized:
Inflation remains too high. Although recent CPI and PCE have improved, it is still insufficient to prove that inflation is sustainably approaching the 2% target.
If inflation cannot decline at a sufficient pace, the Federal Reserve may still tighten policy further, even raising interest rates. He clearly stated that the Federal Reserve still has work to do.
Waller no longer provides the market with clear forward guidance, and subsequent policies will rely more on economic data. After the speech, market expectations for a rate hike in September rose sharply from 36% to about 60%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield also quickly climbed to 4.2%, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to around 4.72%, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 5.19%.
On Friday, Bitcoin ETF ended a nine-day streak of net inflows, turning into a net outflow of 201.9 million, setting a new single-day net outflow record in nearly two weeks.
Recently, we need to focus on the support and resistance levels around 76000 for Bitcoin and around 2400 for Ethereum. If these levels are effectively broken, we may face a new round of adjustments. Therefore, if you firmly believe that the bull market has started, pay close attention to these two levels.
Personally, Jiang Feng still leans towards the market experiencing a deep pullback adjustment before entering a new round of upward movement. However, based solely on the chart, the trend remains relatively strong. As long as we do not effectively break below 76000 and 2400 and fail to stabilize after a rebound, the bullish trend still prevails. Therefore, in recent operations, whether long or short, attention must be paid to position control, and one should not trade blindly with large positions!
In the short term, Bitcoin faces resistance around 79300, 80800, and 81500, with an extreme case at 82600 as the main resistance. If you also expect a deep pullback, you may consider short positions at these levels, with a stop loss above 82600, targeting the downside around 77000～76000～74500～72000～70000.
For Ethereum, pay attention to resistance around 2485～2535～2600, with an extreme case near 2680. If you also believe in a deep pullback, these levels can be used to consider short positions, but remember to participate with a light position. The stop loss should be placed above 2680, and those who cannot accept a wide stop loss should reduce their positions! The targets are around 2400～2300～2250～2050～1950.
⚠️: The downside targets may not all be reached. The target positions are basically near the support levels, so for short positions, it's recommended to take profits in batches after reaching the target while ensuring capital protection and then continue trading!
If you are firmly bullish, you can attempt to play the long side with light positions and a small stop loss around 76000 and 2400. Pay attention to the entry points for shorts above and take profits in batches! I hope everyone can approach the above viewpoints rationally. The market will never present absolute certainty; every trade we make is merely a gamble at critical points. Therefore, no matter how you operate, I hope it is a decision made after thoughtful consideration rather than blindly following trends!
⚠️: All entry and exit points above may have deviations: BTC: ±100, ETH: ±5 points. Regardless of whether you are bullish or bearish, remember to participate with light positions and always maintain a stop loss! Wish everyone smooth trading!
Written by: Jiang Feng Capital
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