1. Review of Yesterday: Highs Followed by Retreat, Divergence in Main Lines
Yesterday, ETH rose to a high and then retreated, leaving an upper shadow. Market sentiment did not continue the previous single-sided strength, but rather entered a stage of fluctuations at high levels.

In the storage chip sector, SanDisk and SK Hynix had mixed performances, indicating signs of divergence within the industry, with increasing funding disagreements and a lack of sustainability in short-term hot spots.

2. Fundamentals: Jackson Hole Concludes, Hawkish Signals Materialize
The highly anticipated Jackson Hole Central Bank annual conference officially concluded yesterday, but this time the protagonist was not the doves, but the hawks.

Key points of information:

1. No Substantial Improvement in Inflation. Waller explicitly released hawkish signals for the first time, stating that there has been no substantial improvement in the underlying trend of inflation; if core inflation does not clearly recede to the 2% target, "there is still work to do".

2. Denial of the Validity of Forward Guidance. He emphasized that financial conditions do not show restrictive signs, paving the way for future interest rate hikes, suggesting that policy tools still have room for adjustment.

3. Rapid Shift in Market Expectations. According to CME data, the market is betting that the probability of an interest rate hike in September has risen to nearly 60%, with the probability of a hike before December exceeding 90%.

Impact Interpretation: The warming of hawkish expectations has strengthened the dollar, and tightening liquidity expectations have emerged. Mainstream cryptocurrencies, represented by ETH, are under significant pressure, with most mainstream coins generally rising and then falling yesterday, consistent with this policy background.

3. Technical Analysis: Range Fluctuations Not Broken, Short-Term Bearish

4-Hour Structure
ETH remains in a 2535–2360 wide range fluctuation on the 4-hour level, with the overall direction not broken, belonging to a high-level consolidation pattern within a bullish trend.

Hourly Structure
On the hourly line, it has broken below the key support level of 2480 yesterday, with short-term bearish momentum dominating, and a continuation of downward adjustment is expected today.

Today's Trading Strategy
Given that the major trend remains a high-level consolidation under a bullish background, the tone for today is set for short trades:

Entry Range: Short in the 2465–2447 range
Stop Loss Setting: 2483 (upper defense)
Target Level: First look at 2388, then at 2360

4. Risk Warning
This analysis is based on the current market and policy environment, and the situation can change rapidly. Please be sure to set strict stop-loss and control position size.
If hawkish expectations show any marginal easing, it may trigger a quick rebound, so short-term trading requires flexible responses.
The above content is only a personal trading thought sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The market has risks, and one should enter with caution.
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