Although oil prices still haven't reached my expected level, it is becoming increasingly clear that the momentum of the rise is weakening. Based on current information, there are likely two solutions. The first is that Iran opens up its shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to some countries, using fees to compensate for the US blockade of Iranian ports. However, this is more of a temporary fix than a fundamental solution. While it can lower oil prices and alleviate political pressure on Iran, it does not offer much relief for the living pressure on the Iranian people.

The second option is to return to the ceasefire agreement with the United States from June. This possibility was quite substantial before, but currently, Trump seems somewhat resistant to dialogue. Moreover, Iran has recently been quite vocal, leading the White House to declare that it will not revive the temporary agreement from June. However, this option could also force inflation and prices to rise in the US, so it appears both sides need a way to step back.

Regardless of which route is taken, a long-term blockade of Hormuz is definitely not advisable. The most we can hope for now is that certain countries tacitly allow Iran to impose fees in exchange for opening up shipping routes. After all, it's not just oil; fertilizers and food also pass through Hormuz in significant quantities.

Returning to the market, today's debut by Waller at the Jackson Hole annual meeting was interpreted by the market as a consideration for raising interest rates, increasing expectations for a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve. This led to declines in both bitcoin:native and the US market. From my personal perspective, the probability of a rate hike in September is almost nonexistent; even if inflation rises in August compared to July, it will not be very high.

Moreover, with the midterm elections only two months away, if Trump attends with oil prices this high, I estimate the Republican Party will really struggle.

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