In the past week, the cryptocurrency market has noticeably warmed up, with the total market capitalization rising from $2.21 trillion to $2.64 trillion, and daily trading volume climbing from $40 billion to as high as $162 billion. For a more momentum-driven crypto market, an increase in trading activity often strengthens market sentiment and further drives prices up.

However, daily trading volume has now retreated to about $109 billion, and whether it can stabilize above $100 billion remains a key factor in determining market momentum. If it falls below this level, a short-term pullback may occur; but from a broader market structure perspective, Bitcoin has already broken free from the bear market structure and entered a new bull market cycle, with overbought signals not necessarily indicating that the upward trend has ended.

$100 billion trading volume returns, but new funds have not clearly followed

The market capitalization of stablecoins remains an important indicator for observing fiat currency inflows into the digital asset market. Currently, overall changes are limited, with only the USDC issued by Circle recording a slight increase in market capitalization. In contrast, from August 2024 to October 2025, the market capitalization of USDT rose from $120 billion to $196 billion, while USDC increased from $35 billion to $75 billion. Since October 2025, similar fund inflows have not occurred again, so whether stablecoin market capitalization can expand again remains a key indicator for determining whether this round of increase is driven by new funds or short-term leveraged speculation.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin's market capitalization share has basically remained at 58%-60% over the past few months and increased slightly in August. Although some altcoins have seen significant rises, the conditions necessary to drive a broad "altseason," such as retail capital, consistently expanding trading volume, and fiat currency flowing into the stablecoin market, have not yet formed. Therefore, compared to high beta digital assets, continuing to allocate Bitcoin as a core position still offers a better risk-adjusted return profile.

The options market signals a bullish trend, with $82,000 becoming the next key level

Recently, the skew of Bitcoin options has shifted from previously deep negative values to positive values, reflecting increased demand for call options. This change in the options pricing structure is the first of its kind since October 2025. Meanwhile, the implied volatility of September-expiration options rose from 33.8% to 41.1%, then retreated to 38.5%, with some traders beginning to roll over call options to October and December, or managing short-term pullback risks through covered call strategies.

On the price front, Bitcoin currently faces short-term technical resistance in the range of $78,214–$82,139. Although it has entered the overbought zone after this round of increases, the overbought status in a momentum-driven market may persist for a long time, and there is a risk of missing out while waiting for a deep pullback. As long as Bitcoin maintains above $70,973, the main upward trend is expected to continue; if it subsequently breaks above and remains above $82,000, market risk appetite may further increase.

Overall, the market structure of Bitcoin has shifted from a bear market to a new bull market, but whether this round of increases can continue still requires further confirmation from trading volume and fund flows. It would not be surprising to see consolidation near the resistance range of $78,214–$82,139 in the short term, while $70,973 remains an important support level for maintaining a bullish outlook. After entering September, as institutional funds and asset management firms start to deploy funds at the new moon, the market is expected to welcome new buying pressure. The upcoming key factors for determining the next phase of the trend will be whether daily trading volume can remain above $100 billion, whether stablecoin market capitalization can expand again, and whether Bitcoin can break through $82,139.

Some of the views above are from BIT on Target, Contact us to get the full report from BIT on Target.

Disclaimer: The market has risks, and investment must be cautious. This article does not constitute investment advice. Digital asset trading may carry significant risks and volatility. Investment decisions should be made after careful consideration of personal circumstances and consultation with financial professionals. BIT is not responsible for any investment decisions made based on the information provided herein.

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