Brothers, the journey in the Jianghu is not afraid of distance, and one meets kindred spirits along the way. Hello everyone, I am Jiang Ye.

⚠️ The following is purely a technical analysis of the market, for exchange and reference only, and does not constitute any investment advice. The market is highly volatile; contracts must have strict position controls and stop losses must be set. For real-time levels during market fluctuations, we can communicate and follow up together. Follow the public account Jiang Ye's Strategy.

Tonight is the true anchoring star of this week. At 10 PM Beijing time, Federal Reserve Chairman Waller will give the most anticipated public speech since taking office at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference. He has always advocated reducing forward guidance, allowing the market to interpret the data itself, but Wall Street precisely wants to grasp his "reaction function." If the speech continues to focus only on long-term topics such as productivity and demographic structure, the bond market will interpret the silence itself as a policy signal.

Before the speech, the market will not move cleanly in one direction; it is likely to be high-level turbulence with continuous probing tests. A slight drop is quickly recovered, evidently not wanting short positions to enjoy profits, but the upward momentum has clearly slowed down. In such a market, it is most unwise to chase up and kill down; patience is required to wait for positions, and one should only enter short positions on price divergence while temporarily abandoning long positions.

1. Three varieties linked: simultaneous TD9 peaks, collectively entering a correction cycle.

When comparing BTC, ETH, and gold on the 1-hour and 15-minute charts, the signals are very clear: all three reached their phase highs nearly simultaneously, completing the TD-Up9 upward time turning point together, and then collectively reversing downwards. This is not an independent market for a single cryptocurrency but a collective correction of funds at the asset class level cashing out profits.

BTC (Bitcoin)

High point 81478, TD-Up9 complete top turning point, 1-hour TD-Down1 correction sequence officially started, with price falling below the upper Bollinger band and converging towards the middle band. 15 minutes TD-Down5, MACD death cross moving down, KDJ quickly falling into oversold territory.

Resistance: 80000-80500 (Bollinger middle band conversion resistance), high point 81478

Support: 79175-79200 (Bollinger lower band first support), strong support 77630

Qualitative: Major uptrend comes to an end; the rapid decline on the 15-minute chart with an oversold KDJ may see a rebound repair, but the rebound is primarily viewed as a downward continuation.

ETH (Ethereum)

Phase high point 2566, TD-Up9 peaks, 1-hour in a correction pattern, 15 minutes TD-Down5 continuously testing the lower range of the box. Price has broken through multiple short-term moving averages, MACD green bars continue to release, KDJ enters oversold territory, highly resonating with BTC.

Resistance: 2505-2508 (Bollinger middle band strong resistance), secondary resistance 2532-2541, high point 2566

Support: 2474-2480 (box life line), if broken, see 2463 Bollinger lower band

Qualitative: Following BTC's synchronous correction, if 2474-2480 holds, it will oscillate back and forth; if broken, downward space will open up.

XAU Gold

High point 4700.63, TD-Up9 top signal then turns down, 1-hour TD-Down8 bearish count approaching timing turning point. 15 minutes finished TD-Down9 and then showed a weak TD-Up2 repair signal, KDJ slightly lifted from oversold. Three days ago, forecasted downward, from 4700 the lowest has reached 4565, the thought continues to be short on the rebound.

Resistance: 4620-4622 (Bollinger middle band resistance), high point 4700

Support: 4575-4576 (Bollinger lower band strong support), below 4565, 4500

Qualitative: Each round of rebounds lacks sufficient momentum to refresh new highs, belonging to a typical rebound and repair market, with lower highs continuously dropping, and rebounds provide shorting opportunities.

2. Cycle strength differentiation and core contradictions

BTC, ETH: 1-hour TD-Down has just started, and the large cycle correction process has begun; the rapid decline on the 15-minute chart with oversold KDJ may see a rebound repair, but the rebound is a continuation of the decline, not a new uptrend. Although weekly and daily lines are in good bullish arrangement, the 4-hour high of 812 was pulled back for repair due to profit-taking pressure, and the short-term is approaching resistance, do not chase long.

Gold: 1-hour TD-Down to 8, very close to a bearish timing turning point, the 15-minute chart has shown repair signals, entering the oversold game window before the cryptocurrency market. However, 4-hour level shows narrow fluctuations after testing low support, overall weak, it belongs to the oscillation digestion after rising, and short-term bullish momentum is significantly decaying.

Core risk point: In the cryptocurrency market with two varieties, as long as BTC does not stabilize above 80500, and ETH cannot stabilize above 2508, the correction pattern will not truly reverse. The US stock market has remained strong, but cryptocurrency prices are obviously not as strong, and once the US stock market retracts, it will definitely lead to a market crash. For real-time levels during market fluctuations, we can communicate and follow up together. Follow the public account Jiang Ye's Strategy.

3. Two scenarios for Waller's speech tonight

The speech is expected to rise gradually, showing strong performance at a big level, but high-level turbulence will not have much market movement, with only continuous probing tests.

Explosion of positive scenario: If the speech is dovish, the market will spike and probe, which is exactly a good opportunity to short, diverging on the spike and then shorting.

Explosion of negative scenario: If the speech is hawkish, a large bearish candle will crash down, followed by a rebound repair.

In both scenarios, the core strategy remains unchanged: combine data and news, after spiking then diverging short, only take short positions on price divergence while temporarily abandoning long positions.

4. Specific operation strategies for the day

BTC

Aggressive short positions: directly enter a position in the current price range of 81000-81500, short on price divergence at 81000 and 81600, stop loss 81900, target 78900→77700→77000→76200.

Cautious short positions: enter at 82000-82300, defend at 83000, target 79000→78500→78000; if broken, look at 77500→77000→76000, continue to move the stop-loss to safeguard profit.

Temporarily abandon long positions: current prices should not chase long, just take profit gradually on shorts. If really wanting to go long, consider waiting for a pullback stabilization in the box at 78500-76500, but it is not recommended before the speech.

ETH

Aggressive short positions: continue shorting at 2525-2550, short on price divergence at 2550 and 2580, stop loss 2595, target 2500→2480, second profit at 2430.

Cautious short positions: enter at 2570-2600, defend at 2640, target 2450→2430→2400; if broken, look at 2370→2350, continue to move the stop-loss to safeguard profit.

Market rhythm: current prices returning to 2500 and 2480 will spike again to break, 2550 and 2580 showing divergence, which is a typical probing washout, and the spikes represent shorting opportunities.

Gold XAU

Main strategy for shorts: short around the rebound at 4620, with targets at 4550→4500. Continue to short on a stagnation around the rebound at 4620-4630, with targets at 4600; breaking through look at 4560.

Long (for reference only): if stabilizing after a pullback at 4580-4600, can consider short-long with a target at 4620; if breaking through, look at 4660. However, the overall thought continues as shorting on the rebound, as lower highs continuously drop, do not blindly chase long.

5. Summary of key price levels

Important reminder: BTC and ETH are currently in a large cycle correction + small cycle oversold, the most likely scenario is "drop-rebound-drop" oscillating grinding market. A slight drop is recovered, and the upward force is slowing down; this is a typical feature of high-level profit-taking. Tonight's Waller speech is a catalyst; do not bet on a single direction before the speech, wait for a spike and divergence to short, and all positions must have strict stop losses, do not hold onto positions.

⚠️ Risk warning: The above content is purely a technical analysis of the market, for reference and communication only, and does not constitute any investment advice. Financial markets are highly volatile; contract trading carries high risks, so please trade rationally, strictly control positions, set your own stop losses, and bear your own gains and losses.

Thank you to all family members for your trust and companionship. The market is changing rapidly, and steady compounding is the long-term strategy. I am Jiang Ye, see you next time.

For real-time levels during market fluctuations, we can communicate and follow up together. Follow the public account Jiang Ye's Strategy.

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