After waiting for the Nvidia earnings report to be published, I didn’t get to the content of the conference call! The earnings report dropped by 4%, but the conference call was so explosive that it jumped back up by 5%, showing a total fluctuation of 9 points and over 450 billion US dollars in movement, truly exciting! 🧐 $NVDA
The data released in the earnings report actually doesn't have much to discuss; exceeding expectations is already the standard answer, consistent with our early predictions, representing a positive outcome that was directly revealed!
The three core points that became the focus of the conference call were the reasons for the explosive growth. The first was the guidance for Q3 revenue, which was set at 108 billion US dollars, excluding the contribution from the Chinese market. If this factor is taken into account, it could potentially exceed 110 billion. This aligns closely with the most optimistic expectations from buyers of 110 billion, giving institutions confidence.
The second point is the Rubin production capacity, which is currently ramping up significantly, transitioning smoothly from the Blackwell to Vera Rubin cycle. The market's concerns about a gap in new product demand are no longer present, and the impact on gross margin is only about 1%. The guidance for gross margin will decrease to 74% in the third quarter.
The third point is demand. The conference call stated that management expects Nvidia's CPU revenue to double in the fiscal year 2028. Furthermore, demand significantly exceeds capacity: “If there are no restrictions, our growth would be much higher.” This undoubtedly acts as a strong stimulant, directly activating market enthusiasm. It was also revealed that Amazon will significantly purchase 2 million Nvidia GPU products.
It is worth noting that during the conference call, Bank of America Securities raised a question about the 500 billion US dollars needed for AI infrastructure and cyclical financing, as well as the recent release by OpenAI of the Jalapeno inference chip, which outperforms Blackwell. Personally, I feel that Nvidia's CFO was somewhat evasive in their response, stating that currently those "top AI laboratories (like OpenAI) lack funding and computing power; our investment can bring extremely high equity returns, and this does not belong to merely shifting power from one hand to another, but is a long-term strategy.
From my personal perspective, Nvidia used to simply sell products, but now it is getting involved in tough tasks, helping customers tackle challenging issues related to a lack of electricity, land, and funding. Jensen Huang is attempting to tie the entire AI industrial chain to his own vehicle. From a risk control perspective, this means Nvidia has tied part of the credit and asset depreciation risk to itself; with shared fortune comes shared loss. Although the vision and framework are indeed remarkable, a mistake could lead to devastating consequences for the industry!
In summary, this earnings report and conference call largely cleared away all negative speculations, and Nvidia's fundamentals remain quite robust; it continues to be the most profitable and irreplaceable absolute core within the global AI wave. Moreover, its conclusion also provided strong confidence for the shovel stocks in the AI supply chain to continue being promoted.
The only hope is to not drain funds from cryptocurrencies! 😂
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