Two major data releases are about to trigger a significant shift! Whales quietly offload billions! Everyone is greedy! BTC violently rises by tens of thousands before diving! Is it a short-term shakeout or the peak of a bull market?

First, looking at the current market, Bitcoin surged to over $81,200 on Monday before quickly retracting, currently oscillating around $78,800, leaving a significantlong upper shadow, overall in a phase of high-level profit digestion.

Reviewing last week's market, BTC rose from $62,800 up, with a weekly increase of over 22%, very strong momentum. Meanwhile, the market’s capital continued to warm up, with Bitcoin ETF seeing a net inflow of $1.9 billion in a week, setting a near 10-month best record. Industry indicators have also warmed up across the board,CryptoQuant bull market scoring index surged from 30 to 80 in a week, with eight out of ten core indicators bullish, creating a fully filled bull market atmosphere.

But here I want to remind everyone that the short-term market is clearly overheated, and the risk of a correction is accumulating. Yesterday, the crypto market greed and fear index neared the extreme greed zone, currently returning to greed, with traders' unrealized profit rate reaching 20.5%. As early as August 20 to 22, short-term main whales began to take profits in batches, with a total offload of about $1.2 billion over three days, including a single-day offload of $614 million on the 20th, setting a stage record.

At the same time, the influx of BTC to exchanges rose to 53,000 coins, the highest level since June. Various signals indicate that the market is under short-term pressure, with sufficient demand for a correction.

This week, the market does not look at technical analysis but focuses only on two major significant events that directly determine the future direction of price movements.

The first event, at 8:30 PM tonight, the U.S. Julycore PCE data will be released. The market expects the year-on-year figure to remain at 3.3%, which has exceeded the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target for 65 consecutive months. The core impact of this data is that a 3.3% value signifies that the cooling of inflation has come to a halt, with no sustained improvement, failing to meet the Federal Reserve’s criteria for a sustainable return to 2% inflation.

If the data meets expectations, the market will only oscillate at high levels without a significant drop, but it also cannot support a breakout; if the data exceeds expectations, market expectations for a rate hike in September will increase, directly triggering a correction in the short term.

The second core event, also this week’s true decisive factor, is the main speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Waller in Jackson Hole at 10 PM Friday. This is the most critical policy signal of the week, which will directly affect Bitcoin through U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar's movement. Several investment banks have warned that if Waller adopts a hawkish tone, emphasizing inflation risks and not ruling out further rate hikes, U.S. Treasury yields will continue to rise, putting persistent pressure on Bitcoin. Plus, current market expectations for positive developments have already peaked; Waller is unlikely to release any dovish signals. If he emphasizes caution regarding inflation, the narrative for market rate cuts will directly loosen, greatly intensifying correction pressure.

Combining market movements and news, I will outline three precise probability scenarios.

The first scenario, with the highest probability of 55%, the market oscillates at high levels and then retraces, repeatedly hovering between 78,000 and 80,000, ultimately triggering profit-taking and retracing to the key support level of 73,500 to 75,500.

The second scenario has a 30% probability.PCE data significantly below expectations, combined with Waller releasing dovish signals, creates a double positive resonance, allowing BTC to break through to 82,000 to 83,000, completely confirming the continuation of this bull market.

The third scenario has a 15% probability and is categorized as a low-probability extreme situation. If PCE exceeds expectations + Waller gives a strong hawkish statement, a combination of double negatives and massive whale sell-offs may lead to the market deeply correcting to around 72,000. Everyone must ensure proper risk control.

Short-term operation strategy: Currently at the 78,800 position, definitely do not chase highs, no directional bets before the data release. Friends holding low-position long positions should move the trailing stop-loss up to below 77,000 and take profits in batches above 80,000. Those who missed the opportunity should not rush, patiently wait for stabilization signals around 74,000 to 76,000, or follow-up after a substantial breakout above 82,000. Friends looking to short can try lightly around 80,000 if met with resistance, setting a stop-loss at 81,500, with the first target at 75,000 and the second target between 71,500 to 73,500.

In summary, this week’s core observation sequence: tonight’s PCE data, Friday’s Waller speech, confirmation of the 82,000 breakout. In trading markets, patience is always more important than judgment; wait for the correction to stabilize before discussing trend continuation.

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The market recap does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, and contract trading carries significant risk; please control your position size judiciously.

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