The market has not yet ended, but the upward space for September has been partially exhausted, August 25.
This article is solely my personal market opinion and does not constitute investment advice. Any losses or gains resulting from trading based on this article are your own responsibility.
Let me summarize my personal views: Currently, this pattern of increase has exhausted the upward space for September. I tend to view September as a wide range of fluctuations, and after some time of oscillation, there may still be a final acceleration.
1. My understanding of the market
By looking more at K-line charts, one can see that a complete upward market consists of a direct rise as the first wave; then there is a fluctuation; followed by a sloping upward trend with lower gradients; and finally, another acceleration. A complete market is thus concluded. Of course, there will be a secondary test to confirm that no further increases can be made.
Basically, every round of the market follows this pattern, differing in the speed and magnitude of increase during each phase, creating various wave markets.
However, looking through phenomena to see essence, the first wave of a direct rise is a rapid climb following the completion of chip accumulation. Since sell orders have almost been fully absorbed (from early July to mid-August, that is, from Yi Wei month to Ding You month), during the rise, there weren't many sellers, hence it rose the fastest (from August 17 to now).
Next comes the oscillation period, as the increase has already been significant and is nearing the trapped positions, leading to short-term profits being taken and trapped positions being sold off, causing the price to fall back. Meanwhile, those who missed earlier buy opportunities and still hold optimism about the future market choose to enter during the correction, which forms support. As bulls and bears interact, an oscillation handover zone forms at this time.
I personally expect that somewhere between 80k-84k, we should start to build a short-term top, followed by oscillation. 84k is near the 120-week moving average + Fibonacci positions + the top near May (strictly speaking, the range from 79k to 83k in early May is a trapped region), and it should be a consensus pressure point. Therefore, I believe oscillation will begin here.
As for the magnitude and time, it depends on the strength comparison between new buying pressure and selling pressure, which is hard to predict. But theoretically, the longer the oscillation lasts, the more fully the handover occurs, and the greater the potential for subsequent movements. The shorter the oscillation time, the more likely the market is to quickly end. The reason is quite simple: the more profits taken in a short time, the more exits occur.
A 10% increase over half a month may not impress you, a 20% increase may bring a slight smile, a 30% increase may start to waver your resolve, and at a 50% increase, many would likely sell, especially for large volumes like BTC.
Among all types of oscillation, the most powerful is an upward sloping oscillation, which indicates that the market trend is very strong (for example, from late October to late November 2023, this is rare).
If buyers maintain their strength, there will be a continued rise after a period of oscillation. However, since a large portion of the buying strength has already been consumed during the oscillation process, and as prices rise, both locked positions waiting for release and profit-taking orders also increase, it is normal for the rise rate to slow down.
The final sprint is generally due to short-squeezing, breakthroughs at key positions, or FOMO, all with the core objective of—triggering large liquidity in a short time to reduce exit costs. This usually involves longer upper shadows; a less obvious case is that the upper shadow may not appear on the daily chart but can manifest at the 2-day or 3-day levels (with a large bullish day followed by a bearish day that engulfs the bullish one).
2. Personal trading behavior reference
The above is my basic view of a segment of the market, and I will also understand the upcoming market based on this line of thinking. Currently, I believe the first phase of direct rise is nearing its end.
In terms of trading behavior, I have personally reduced my BTC position by half, and slightly reduced my ETH position as well. Currently, I have not seen any complete signals indicating the end of the market.
3. View from an Eight Characters perspective
Overall, I still hold a positive outlook for September, but due to the rapid and large increase in August, which is nearly 30% in just 9 days, it is difficult to see another significant upward market. This point also requires maintaining calm.
From the Eight Characters perspective, one can look at the market trend after the decline from May 25 to June 5 as a reflective understanding. In June, the Jia Wu month, from an Eight Characters perspective, is a month of significant decline, but since the downward momentum was largely released at the beginning of the month, the entirety of June still saw a decline, but in the latter half, it merely set a slightly lower low.
Therefore, the Eight Characters can serve as a directional reference but cannot determine the strength of the market; the specific trend still needs to be combined with the trends that have already occurred. A bearish month, if it has already been aggressively sold off, might evolve into a secondary bottom test (like in the Jia Wu month). If the decline is significant enough, it could turn into oscillation digestion (definitely unable to rise), like in the Yi Wei month, the imagery of the Yi Wei month itself represents "weak rebounds, oscillation, downward trends, stepwise wear."
September is similar; purely from an Eight Characters perspective, it should be a continuation of the upward trend, but since most of the upward momentum was already released at the end of August, one should not expect September to suddenly surge again. Generally, it may still trend upwards, but the rhythm, strength, and path will likely see changes.
4. Has the bull returned?
After a substantial increase in recent days, the call for the bull has risen, and many friends in the backend have privately messaged me asking if the bull market has arrived and if the bear market is over.
My view is that it is not necessary to focus on bulls and bears. Many people base their thoughts on the performance of BTC in past cycles where it has long-term rises during bull markets, believing that as long as they bottom buy during the bear market, they can hold until the end of the bull market and maximize profits, thus always trying to catch the bottom in a bear market.
If you have this kind of thinking, you will never manage to hold for years until the end of the bull market. Those who can truly hold never have the mindset of a one-time bottom buy; they have already started to enter in phases.
The cognition reflected behind human behavior is consistent. If you have bottom-buying thoughts, you are destined to have exit thoughts. If you want to escape the top, you certainly will not get the last bit. Therefore, do not let a beautiful imagination blind you. As long as you focus on the transition between bulls and bears, you cannot partake in the entirety of the bull market.
5. The meaning of “Riding the Wave”
The market is always phase-oriented, so the binary labels of bull/bear markets hold very little value for trading (it is necessary to break free from such notions). What I focus on is which phase the current and next market resides in.
This is also the meaning of “Riding the Wave.”
Since the beginning of this year, I have renamed my public account to “Riding the Wave,” which means “discovering the wave (trend), riding the wave (trend),” flowing with the current rather than being confined to oneself.
“Riding the Wave” rather than “Riding the Waves,” is because I only want to grasp the significant parts and let go of the smaller segments, without thinking of capturing every single market movement. Focused on trend trading, it is enough to be bullish when it is time to be bullish and bearish when it is time to be bearish. If I obsessed over bulls and bears, I would either miss out or suffer from worse scenarios like short selling disasters. Long-term followers should have a clear impression of the several drops this year and the reversal this month; details might differ, but the trend has never been wrong.
Therefore, I hope all of you do not get caught up in the bull and bear narratives. Try to minimize the time spent on observers who proclaim the bull is back or the bear market has ended; it’s of little meaning and spreads emotions and anxieties. Especially those bloggers who suddenly pop up after price increases, a common flow; many of them have been discarded over the years. The account is yours; do not let emotions lead you astray.
Follow me to earn maximized trend profits with minimal operations.
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