Source: BIT Securities

In the past week, Bitcoin surged over 20%, and cryptocurrency-related stocks in the U.S. stock market also rose accordingly. Especially, Circle, which was previously burdened with negative news, has shown quite remarkable performance recently. Its stock price fell to around $57 in early August but has now climbed back to approximately $87.

Moreover, Cathie Wood, known as "Wood Sister," recently stated in a tweet: with technology disrupting the traditional world order, Circle will become a major beneficiary. This statement has heightened market expectations for Circle.

1. Let's Review: Why Was Circle Previously Hammered?

The trigger for Circle's recent plunge was the positive entry of OpenUSD.

On June 30, the Open Standard Alliance, consisting of over 140 payment, banking, technology, and cryptocurrency companies such as Visa, Mastercard, Stripe, BlackRock, Google, and Coinbase, announced the launch of the stablecoin OpenUSD (OUSD), which is expected to be officially launched within the year. Its approach directly targets Circle’s core: under the traditional model, the interest generated from the reserves of stablecoins is solely kept by the issuer, while OpenUSD aims to proportionally share this revenue with channels and ecosystem partners, offering zero fees for minting and redemption without limits. On the day the news was announced, Circle’s stock price plummeted by about 17%.

In simple terms, the market's bearish logic regarding Circle was straightforward: the company is too singular in its operations – issuing USDC and earning reserve interest. This type of business lacks a protective moat, and once a competitor of OpenUSD’s level enters with a “profit-sharing model,” the stock price is bound to be hit first.

2. Wood Sister's Bullish Logic: You Are Using an Old Map to Find a New Continent

If Circle were truly only a “US dollar stablecoin interest-earning company,” its prospects would indeed be limited, not justifying a high valuation.

However, the core argument in Wood’s tweet is: the market is still pricing Circle using the framework of the Visa and Mastercard era, while Circle may be participating in creating the next generation of payment and financial infrastructure. To translate this – the size you are measuring has been wrong from the start.

So, what are the specific points of potential explosion in this "next-generation infrastructure" narrative?

3. Arc Exclusive Chain and CCTP, Infrastructure is Already Underway

For the narrative of building the next-generation payment and financial infrastructure, Circle indeed already has some projects that are being realized.

The first achievement is Arc – Circle's self-developed Layer 1 exclusive blockchain designed specifically to carry USDC and on-chain financial transactions. Its design is ingenious: when transferring on general chains like Ethereum and Solana, transaction fees must be paid in ETH and SOL respectively, while transactions on Arc can be settled directly in USDC, allowing users to avoid the need to purchase other currencies just to spend dollars. Arc is tailored for large financial institutions, with built-in compliance frameworks and KYC verification, essentially constructing a highly regulated financial private network. This project has gained support from numerous traditional financial institutions, and JPMorgan has made significant investments.

Another initiative is the CCTP (Cross-Chain Transfer Protocol): Through a “burn and mint” mechanism—destroying on Chain A and minting an equivalent amount on Chain B—it allows native USDC to travel seamlessly across dozens of public chains without using third-party cross-chain bridges, thus avoiding the old issues of bridge hacks.

With a dedicated chain and cross-chain protocol, Circle is transforming itself from a "token issuance company" into an "internet financial operating system."

4. AI Agent, a Demand Curve That Nobody Has Valued Before

There is also a further space for imagination: AI Agent.

Machines inherently prefer payment methods that are low-cost, real-time, globally accessible, programmable, and API-native—these characteristics are perfectly tailored for stablecoins. As the Agent-to-Agent and Machine-to-Machine economies take off, every automatic settlement between AIs might create an entirely new demand curve for stablecoins.

5. In Conclusion: The Imagination is Great, but the Assignment is Not Yet Submitted

Lastly, it must be stated honestly. Most of the stories above are still at the narrative stage – Circle has not yet delivered sufficient results to prove that it has actually built the next-generation payment and financial infrastructure. The potential for imagination is vast, but the realized tasks are relatively limited.

Therefore, if you are considering investing in Circle at this moment, the correct mindset should not be to bet on it doubling next month, but rather to treat it as a long-term infrastructure option: plan for long-term holdings, manage positions reasonably, and trade time for the realization of narratives.

Wood Sister's optimism is never about next quarter’s earnings report, but about the financial trajectory of the next decade. Whether you join or not depends on your time scale.

This article is independently written by an invited author and represents only the author's personal views and analysis, not the official position of BIT, nor does it constitute any investment advice, offer, or solicitation. Cryptocurrency assets and related securities experience significant price volatility, and investors may face the risk of capital loss. Past performance does not represent future returns. Please assess risks independently and consult professional advisors before investing.

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