Over the weekend, 900 million in funds were liquidated! The favorable effects of U.S. treasuries were fleeting! Institutions had a net inflow of billions! The debt spiral continues to ferment! Against the backdrop of a weakening dollar, how should we position BTC in the medium to long term?

BTC is currently fluctuating in a narrow range around 77,500, building momentum at a high level. As the market reaches this point, the real super test week has just begun. This week, three heavyweight events are about to unfold: early Tuesday, NVIDIA's earnings report, followed by PCE inflation data in the evening, and the Jackson Hole annual conference speech on Thursday. These three major events will directly impact the short-term market direction!

A while back, the U.S. Treasury increased the long-term bond repurchase quota, which briefly lowered U.S. treasury yields, but this good news was merely short-lived, as it was digested by the market within a day. Currently, the ten-year U.S. treasury yield is back at 4.73%, and the thirty-year yield is rising simultaneously, indicating that the market does not buy into the narrative, continuously pricing in the massive debt risk of the U.S. Today, the total U.S. national debt has officially exceeded 40 trillion, two years ahead of expectations, with annual interest expenses soaring. The unsolvable debt spiral has formed. Because of this, Bridgewater's big shot Dalio publicly endorsed Bitcoin, stating that in an environment of global financial pressure, scarce non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin are an excellent hedge.

The macro benefits do not end here; the dollar index has fallen to a three-month low, and gold is surging strongly. Combined with Japan and South Korea's continued fiscal expansion and industrial investment, expectations for global liquidity easing are rising. The overall macro environment is lifting risk assets, providing solid medium-term support for BTC. Meanwhile, the fundamentals of the cryptocurrency industry are consistently improving, as Trump once again urged Congress to pass the CLARITY cryptocurrency bill, reducing uncertainty around industry regulation. Additionally, last week saw over 1.92 billion USD in net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. stock market, as institutional funds continued to enter, completely taking over the short liquidations and becoming the core buyer in this round of market cycling.

Looking back at this round of market activity, BTC rose from 62,800 to nearly 80,000, an increase of over 24%, leading to a historical-level short liquidation and firmly establishing a bullish trend. Many friends are worried about the sudden dip during the weekend; there is no need to worry at all. This pullback is the result of three overlapping factors: a large amount of profit-taking before, a shift in market risk aversion, and the short-term tug from the U.S. Treasury narrative, leading to nearly 900 million in contracts liquidated throughout the day. Essentially, it was just a cleaning up of high-level short positions. After the market bounced back quickly after testing the key support at 75,650, it proves that the bullish foundation is solid, and the current high-level fluctuations are only to digest profit-taking chips.

In summary, this week is undoubtedly a macro verification week. NVIDIA, as a bellwether in the AI track, can see earnings fluctuations of up to ±6%, directly affecting the tech stock and risk asset sentiment; the PCE inflation data and the Jackson Hole annual conference speech are crucial for determining short-term liquidity direction. Simply put, BTC can only stabilize at the 80,000 mark and break the 82,470 bull market confirmation line if all three conditions are met: NVIDIA's earnings exceed expectations, PCE inflation data is mild, and the conference speech leans dovish. If any of these data points fall short of expectations, the market will face short-term pullbacks for cleansing; however, it is important to note that it will absolutely not undermine the bottom structure of the current medium-term uptrend.

Having built up strength for a long time, a turning point is imminent. Will this week see the bulls break through new highs or the bears retaliate and cleanse the market? Keep a close eye on key data, and let's go with the flow together, waiting to see!

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Market review does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency is highly volatile, and contract trading carries extremely high risks. Please manage positions reasonably.

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