One Hour Gold K-Line Chart

I. News Analysis

• Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and Officials' Statements and Interest Rate Cut Expectations: Recent speeches by Federal Reserve officials suggest a further shift towards easing monetary policy within the year, reigniting strong market expectations for future interest rate cuts, benefiting gold as a non-yielding asset directly.

• Global Geopolitical Risks and Macro Hedge Demands: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East and certain regions continues to fluctuate, combined with multiple central banks globally increasing their gold reserves, creating a resonance of hedging and long-term allocation funds, providing a solid foundation for gold.

• Profit-Taking Pressure from High Long Positions: After gold prices surged to historical highs, triggering some early profit-taking and the release of funds from previous highs, short-term constraints limit the continuation of price upward movements.

II. Technical Analysis (1-Hour Level)

• Price and K-Line Patterns: The current price is at 4615 USD, with a previous high reaching 4640 USD, setting a new historical high. After breaking through, prices showed a small bearish candle for repair, currently solidifying at the upper level of the upward channel.

• Moving Average System (MA):

  • MA5 (around 4615) and MA10 (around 4615 USD) formed a high-level death cross, suppressing prices for short-term corrections towards the moving average support.

  • MA30 (around 4580 USD) and MA52 (around 4550 USD) show a strong golden cross bullish formation diverging upwards to the right, indicating that the medium to long-term bullish trend remains very healthy.

• Technical Indicators:

  • TD Sequence: Precisely triggered the TD 9 structure near the previous high of 4640.53 USD, indicating that short-term bullish momentum has temporarily exhausted, prompting technical repairs and consolidation.

  • RSI (6,13,24): RSI2/RSI3 runs in the 63.38 – 65.04 range, retreating from the previous extreme overbought area (>75) to the bullish strong zone, releasing short-term overbought pressure.

• Key Support/Resistance Levels:

  • First Resistance Level: 4640 USD (today's historical high)

  • Second Resistance Level: 4660 USD (upward extension target)

  • First Support Level: 4600 - 4607 USD (today's intraday pullback low and integer level)

  • Second Support Level: 4580 USD (strong support at MA30)

III. Operation Strategy Suggestions

Currently in the stage of "the dominant trend remains bullish, short-term TD9 high-level repair," it is recommended to adopt a strategy of mainly long positions with the trend and light short positions under high resistance:

• Long Position Layout (Main Strategy):

  • Entry Point: Stabilize upon a pullback to 4595 - 4605 USD and attempt long positions in batches (defending around the integer level of 4600).

  • Add Position Point: After stabilization, if it rebounds and breaks through 4625 USD, lightly follow the trend to add long positions; or add more on a deeper pullback to 4580 USD (around MA30).

  • Stop Loss Point: Strictly stop loss below 4570 USD (breaking MA30 indicates a breach of the 1-hour ascending channel).

  • Take Profit Point: First take profit level of 4635 - 4640 USD, with further targets at 4655 - 4660 USD.

• High Short Attempt (Auxiliary Strategy):

  • Entry Point: If a second upward surge fails to break through 4638 - 4642 USD, consider light short selling for a very short term.

  • Stop Loss Point: Stop loss at breakout of 4648 USD.

  • Take Profit Point: Look down to 4615 - 4605 USD.

• Position Management: With gold prices at historically absolute high levels, and increased volatility, it is recommended to control the first position size at 10% - 15%, with total position size strictly controlled below 25%.

IV. Risk Warning and Response Plan

• Risk of Forming a "Double Top" at High Levels: If the bulls cannot effectively break through 4640 USD during a second upward assault, a 1-hour level "double top" structure may form, leading to a significant pullback to the 4550 USD suppression area.

  • Response Plan: It is strictly prohibited to blindly chase long positions at high levels (above 4630 USD); long positions must wait for a pullback to key support areas to show signs of stabilizing before laying out.

• Data and Officials' Speech Disturbances: Close attention should be paid to the dynamics of the US market in the evening and speeches by Federal Reserve officials; sudden data changes may trigger sharp short-term "upward and downward spikes."

  • Response Plan: All positions must have strict hard stop losses set, and any high-level holding operations are rejected.
    

    

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