CoinW Research Institute
As of the market close on August 21, Yushi Technology reported 672.41 yuan, a decrease of 2.12% for the day. The stock opened low at 659 yuan, dipped to 636 yuan in the early session, then rebounded to 706.98 yuan, before fluctuating downwards in the afternoon, closing above the opening price. Compared to the opening price of 1100 yuan on the first day of listing, this represents a cumulative drop of 38.87%; compared to the closing price of 845 yuan on the first day, it is a drop of 20.42%. The trading volume for the day was 5.139 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 25.28%, both continuing to decline from the previous two trading days; the closing price was slightly below the average transaction price of 675.65 yuan for the day. The day displayed a pathway of low opening, bottoming out, rebounding, and then fluctuating downwards, indicating a slight easing of the continuous downward trend, with the trading focus yet to move up continuously.
On the same day, the robotics sector shifted from a broad decline to differentiation, with Greedy Harmonics up 1.40%, Astan up 2.44%, and robotics down 0.40%; Yushi Technology also rebounded from the intraday low, but still recorded a drop at the close. Market divergence then shifted: Is the current market phase a short-term rebound or the starting point of a new price center formation? Based on the closing price on August 21, the company's market value is approximately 271.966 billion yuan, with a static price-to-sales ratio of about 160 times calculated on 2025 revenue, still 4.46 times the initial market value upon issuance.
The retreat has compressed part of the initial listing premium, and the current price still implies high growth expectations. Whether the current price can hold is dependent on whether revenue growth can further translate into industrial repurchases, profits, and cash flow. If the stock price can consistently stay above the average transaction cost, showing improved relative sector performance, and with operational data confirming this, the reversal logic would gain support; if the rebound continues to be constrained by the average price, and operational data does not improve, the market conditions remain closer to a short-term remedy.
Bullish Logic: Leading Product Delivery and Scarcity of Circulation Shares
After this round of retreat, the basis for bullish logic does not lie in the decline itself, but in the fact that the company has crossed the first threshold of product, delivery, and profitability. In 2025, the company will achieve revenue of 1.699 billion yuan, including 868 million yuan from humanoid robots, with sales of 5,215 units and a gross margin of 63.18%; in the first half of 2026, revenue will be 1.152 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 48.54%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 274 million yuan. These data indicate that the company is different from competitors who are still in the prototype and financing stages.
Production capacity and investment arrangements provide a second layer of support. As of July 2026, the cumulative production of the bionic biped humanoid robot is approximately 18,000 units. The production model disclosed during the IPO roadshow is based on sales-driven production with safe inventory. However, it should be noted that the company's historical investment intensity in research and development is not high: in 2025, R&D expenses were approximately 145 million yuan, with a research and development expense ratio of 8.53%, significantly lower than comparable companies like UBTECH and AUBO. If more entities can bring back real task data and enhance model generalization capability, the current decline can be understood as a market shift from extreme scarcity pricing to a reevaluation of long-term product strength.
The most vulnerable point in this logic lies in whether two transformations can be completed: the conversion of delivery into data, and the conversion of data into general operational capabilities. If the third-quarter financial report, to be disclosed no later than October 31, shows that cumulative revenue growth year-on-year falls below 30%, and that operational cash flow and contract liabilities do not improve, along with a lack of verifiable industrial customer repurchases, the bullish logic will lose its fundamental support.
The trading structure can also amplify short-term volatility. The prospectus indicates that at the beginning of Yushi Technology's listing, the circulating shares available for unrestricted trading were 30.877 million shares, accounting for only 7.44% of the total share capital after issuance. The turnover rate on August 21 was 25.28%, equivalent to approximately one-quarter of the circulating shares changing hands again that day; a smaller circulation would simultaneously magnify both sell-off and repurchase elasticity. After the stock closed on August 21, the real-time funding rate for CoinW’s UNITREE perpetual contracts was -0.07256%, with a period of 4 hours, and the next settlement time at 20:00; if the rate remains negative until settlement, shorts would need to pay longs, indicating an increase in short holding costs, and providing a signal to determine whether the short trading on the contract side is overcrowded. If the negative rate persists across multiple settlement periods and expands in absolute value, while the stock trading focus shifts upwards, short covering may enhance the rebound elasticity; if the rate returns to near zero or turns positive, and the stock price still fails to stay above the average transaction cost, this evidence will weaken.
Bearish Logic: Humanoid Robots Lack Commercial Scenarios, Industry is in a Very Early Stage
The core evidence from the bears does not lie in the stock price, but in the revenue structure. The company's response to inquiries indicates that in the first three quarters of 2025, humanoid robot revenue was composed of 73.60% from scientific research and education, 17.39% from commercial consumption, and only 9.01% from industry applications; among these, corporate tours and other scenarios accounted for 50% to 70% of the industry applications, with revenue explicitly used for intelligent manufacturing and smart inspections amounting to 15.702 million yuan, accounting for about 2.6% of the humanoid robot revenue during the same period. The company has proven that humanoid robots can be produced and sold at scale, but has not yet proven that they can be replicated as productivity tools in industrial sites on a large scale.
The founder Wang Xingxing cited this risk very directly during his statement at the World Robot Conference on August 20. He stated that robots have not been widely promoted in factories and homes mainly because current efficiency and capability remain insufficient. In fixed scenarios, the success rate of well-trained models can approach 100%, but it significantly drops when items or environments change. He believes that completing about 80% of daily tasks in unfamiliar environments is the hallmark of the industry crossing the critical point, which could be as fast as 2 to 3 years or as slow as 5 to 10 years.
Meanwhile, financial data provides corroborative evidence. In the first half of 2026, the company’s net profit excluding non-recurring items was 244 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.34%; net cash flow from operating activities was approximately 232 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.53%. If industrial orders and repurchases do not follow, R&D, sales, and product price drops will continue to suppress profit and cash conversion.
The bearish logic also has a premise: that industrialization will continue to progress slowly, but the progress of generalization capability may not be linear. If the third-quarter financial report shows cumulative revenue growth maintaining above 40%, with a gross margin of no less than 55%, a continued narrowing of the decline in non-recurring profit, improvement in operating cash flow, and verifiable bulk orders and repurchases from industrial customers appear, then the negative judgment on the commercial value of humanoid robots will need to be reassessed.
Summary: Short-Term Focus on Support, Verification Through Third-Quarter Financial Reports
Three days since the listing, the daily drop for Yushi Technology has narrowed to 2.12%, with trading volume and turnover rate continuously declining, and the closing price still running below the average transaction price for the day. The core issue in the short term is whether support can emerge. In the next trading day, first look to see if the average price line of 675.65 yuan can be recaptured, and whether continuous buying can be obtained during the decline; simultaneously observe the mark price, index price, and funding rate of UNITREEUSDT. Meanwhile, before the end of the World Robot Conference forum on August 22, the company will also gradually release new statements regarding models, products, and industrial scenarios, which could potentially influence market conditions in advance.
From the trading port perspective, aside from the launch of UNITREE perpetual contracts (UNITREEUSDT), CoinW has also simultaneously launched contracts covering various aspects of the robotics industry chain: for midstream machinery, there are TERUSDT (Teradyne, collaborative robots and AMR), TSLAUSDT (Tesla Optimus), HYUNDAIUSDT (Boston Dynamics under Hyundai Motor), and ONDSUSDT (Ondas, drone and ground robot platform); for downstream applications, there are CATUSDT (Caterpillar, unmanned mining vehicles) and AMZNUSDT (Amazon, warehouse logistics automation); and for upstream, there are NVDAUSDT (Nvidia, robotics AI chips), TSMUSDT (TSMC, wafer foundry), and TXNUSDT (Texas Instruments, analog and control chips). If only Yushi Technology and its perpetual contracts continue to re-price, while peers differentiate, it will be more related to the company’s own valuation issues; if machinery, downstream applications, and upstream chips all weaken simultaneously, the industry demand expectations will need to be reevaluated.
The further verification checklist can be compressed into six signals: trading volume and trading focus, contract price spreads and funding rates, revenue growth rate in the third quarter financial report, gross margins and non-recurring profit, operating cash flow and contract liabilities, as well as bulk orders, repurchases, and actual operating time from industrial customers. Among these, it is the third quarter report that can truly verify both bullish and bearish logic, and investors can further observe.
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