Institutions are madly buying, and regulation has completely shifted! SEC loosens restrictions + U.S. Treasury injects liquidity + short sellers are caught, the Federal Reserve maintains zero interest rates but forces a sharp rise! BTC breaks 69000! Is this a reversal or a lure?
Bitcoin surged 6000 points violently in two days, breaking through the 69000 mark overnight and peaking at 70000, marking the largest single-day increase since March; many people suddenly found themselves out of the market, and others panicked at the high point.
Firstly, this round of skyrocketing is not a coincidence, but a strong resonance of macro liquidity, regulatory good news, and short squeezing.
Let’s first discuss the core macro good news! Last night, the U.S. Treasury made a big move, directly expanding the buyback scale of long-term Treasury bonds, doubling the single-operation limit from 2 billion to 4 billion dollars. Once the news broke, long-term U.S. Treasury yields fell, the dollar index plummeted, reaching its largest drop in three weeks, directly driving the rebound in the gold and crypto markets; market liquidity instantly widened, which is the core trigger for this round of market movement.
However, there is a risk point that everyone must pay attention to: the latest release of the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes shows no voting whatsoever for interest rate cuts, completely diverging from the market’s previous expectations of rate cuts. Currently, the pressure on prices in the market continues to exist, combined with the deadlock in the U.S.-Iran situation, the limitation on oil transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, and rising oil prices. The inflationary pressure is hard to alleviate, making it highly probable that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in September, with even discussions of rate hikes; the macro environment is not entirely positive.
Now, looking at global market linkage. The Bank of Japan has released significant news, indicating that it plans to end negative interest rates as early as September or October, reversing the carry trade with the yen, which will continuously affect global capital flows. Additionally, investment mogul Rogers has publicly liquidated his U.S. stocks, only holding shares in China and Uzbekistan, explicitly stating that current U.S. stock valuations are too high, and the upcoming crisis could be worse than in 2008; global capital market risks remain.
Focusing on the crypto market, the most critical emotional catalyst for this round of increases is the comprehensive warming of U.S. regulation. On August 18, the SEC officially introduced a customized regulatory framework for crypto assets, launching safe harbor clauses, providing clear compliance paths for the industry. Cross-border projects can raise up to 5 million within four years, and large projects can have an annual financing limit of up to 75 million. This means U.S. crypto regulation has completely moved away from the past model of “regulation by enforcement” toward compliant development, significantly restoring industry confidence.
Not only that, but the White House crypto summit is currently in full swing, with Trump’s team collaborating with top platforms like Coinbase and Blockchain attending, significantly boosting policy expectations in the industry and completely dispelling market fears of regulation.
On the funding side, it also strongly supports this! MSTR, heavily held by institutions, saw 12 out of 15 major institutional shareholders choose to increase their holdings in the second quarter, collectively adding 1.2 billion dollars. In the two quarters, nearly 5.8 billion flowed in, with top institutions like BlackRock and Vanguard firmly controlling the market, and major funds have been quietly setting up positions.
At the same time, this round of explosive growth also has a strong amplifier—short seller liquidation. BTC saw a maximum daily increase of 8%, with over 1 billion dollars liquidated from shorts in just one hour, and the overall liquidation scale reached 1.5 billion dollars in 24 hours. A large number of short positions were passively liquidated and reversed bought, further pushing up the coin price, forming a positively reinforcing cycle with increasingly fierce rises.
The 69000 mark for Bitcoin is absolutely the most critical line of life and death, as it is the 200-day moving average and also the dividing line for short-term bull and bear markets. If it stabilizes here, it opens up space above, aiming for 73000 to 75000; if it fails to hold, it is highly likely to quickly retest the 67000-68000 range.
Finally, talking about what everyone is most concerned about regarding future operations, remember my core viewpoint: this wave is a strong rebound at the end of the bear market, not the start of a new bull market.
Public account: Big Bull Says Market
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