If you have carefully observed the market surface, you should have noticed that in the past 45 days, Bitcoin has formed a very standard volume-price divergence + narrow range fluctuation trend.

Whether in the daily or four-hour timeframe, the market volume has been continuously shrinking, and the price fluctuation range is constantly narrowing, with the overall market structure continuously converging. Friends familiar with the market know that such prolonged horizontal convergence and fluctuation accumulation will definitely not remain stable forever; it will inevitably usher in an extreme trend change.

The subsequent market has only two possibilities: either a power accumulation breakthrough leading to a substantial rise, or a breakdown downward leading to a deep correction. So the key question arises: this time's trend change, will it break upwards or crash downwards?

I believe the market has a high probability of directly initiating a downward trend change below 67500; there is a small probability that it will first have a slight rebound, rising to the range of 68000 to 69000 and then quickly retreating and crashing; as for a rebound pushing towards 72000, the probability is almost zero and can be completely disregarded.

First, the first point, which is the most core signal: continuous shrinkage of volume and inability to rise is already a settled matter.

For a whole month now, Bitcoin's daily trading volume has been continuously declining, with each rebound's volume peak consistently decreasing, from the initial 25000+, shrinking all the way down to 21000, and finally dropping directly to 17000. You can intuitively compare that the price remains stable around 65000, but the market volume has been directly halved.

When trading, everyone must remember a phrase: volume precedes price, all price increases without volume are false increases. It is now evident that with each rebound, the high points continuously decline, corresponding volumes also continuously shrink, which is not a structure of bulls accumulating strength to attack, but rather a clear bearish signal indicating that bullish strength is weakening and rebound momentum is continuously exhausting. Looking only at volume dimensions, the market is 100% pointing towards a downward trend change.

Second point, in terms of space dimension: there is heavy resistance above, making it difficult to break through that strong wall.

In the range of 65500 to 67500, there are a total of 2.4 million Bitcoin holding chips accumulated across the network, making it the largest historical chip cost concentration zone. As long as the price rises to this range, a large amount of trapped positions will concentrate on selling, with continuous selling pressure firmly suppressing the market.

Moreover, 67500 is not only the high point of July's rebound but also a strong resistance level at the weekly level. To effectively break through this key position, it must meet three conditions simultaneously: volume-driven rise, sustained buy orders, and macro positive catalysts. However, in the current market, none of these three major conditions are in place.

Furthermore, the market has tested the pressure around 67500 three times, all of which have faced pressure and retreated. In trading markets, three times is the limit; failing to break the peak three times greatly increases the probability of a subsequent drop. Therefore, in terms of space structure, the market is basically locked in top and retreat below 67500.

Third point, macro fundamentals: rate cut expectations are not beneficial but rather carry hidden risks.

Currently, the market widely speculates on the Fed's rate cut expectations in September, but everyone must remain clear that this rate cut is not a strong bullish signal for Bitcoin, but rather a potential bearish signal.

First, the market's expectations of interest rate cuts have already been overdrawn and fully priced in, and when it actually materializes, there is a high probability of a good news turning into bad news sell-the-fact market; secondly, the Fed's rate cut essentially signals weakness in the US economy, and various consumer data has been continuously deteriorating, putting sustained pressure on the overall sentiment towards risk assets; finally, there is uncertainty in the Fed's internal policy, and once inflation data rebounds, the expectations of rate cuts will instantly cool down or even reverse. The superimposition of multiple macro factors does not support Bitcoin making a violent push towards 72000.

Fourth point, fund dimension: the market lacks new influx of capital, and the momentum to strengthen the market is weak.

You can review the current market funding situation, which is entirely a game of existing volume. ETF funds are repeatedly shifting back and forth, with no sustained net inflow; MicroStrategy and Bitcoin miners continue to sell their holdings; and Asian retail investors show no signs of capital inflow, with stablecoins lacking incremental funds entering the market.

At present, the market is barely maintaining a fluctuation trend relying on existing funds, with no sufficient incremental funds to drive a significant rise. Even if the subsequent market briefly rises to 68000 to 69000, it will only be a false rise driven by short covering and market sentiment, without real capital support, coming quickly and falling even faster; it is essentially a false bullish rebound, dead cat bounce.

In summary: the current fluctuation in the range of 65000 to 67000 is not a bullish accumulation for an attack, but the last attempt to lure the bulls, the desperate struggle of the bulls. Everyone should focus tightly on three key signals: first, if the price rises to 66500 to 67000 but the volume continues to deplete, it is a clear signal to lure bulls; decisively position short; second, if the market volume breaks below the key support of 62500, it is a confirmation signal for a decline; directly follow the trend and short; third, if neither breaking nor expanding volume occurs, simply maintain a wait-and-see attitude during the fluctuation.

Official Account: Big Bull Talks Market Trends

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