Golden One Hour K Line Chart

I. News Analysis

• The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes are about to be released, and the market is cautiously waiting: The market's focus is on the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting minutes, as investors are eager to find clear signals regarding future interest rate trends, leading to a weakening of the willingness to buy at high positions, while profit-taking by bulls suppresses prices.

• Moderate U.S. economic data cool down interest rate hike expectations: Previously moderate inflation and employment data have alleviated market concerns about a hard tightening, providing fundamental support for the medium- to long-term trend of gold.

• Risk aversion and geopolitical sentiment intertwined: The uncertainty of the situation in the Middle East and geopolitical developments has maintained market risk aversion support, preventing gold prices from experiencing a sharp decline.

II. Technical Analysis (1 Hour Level)

• Price and K Line Formation: The current price is at 4353 USD. After peaking at 4449 USD, a retracement occurred, with volume breaking below the previous dense support platform and reaching a low of 4323 USD; subsequently, a candlestick with a lower shadow was recorded, showing the willingness of bottom buyers to support.

• Moving Average System (MA):

  • MA5 (4338.14) has halted and turned upward, with prices back above MA5, indicating a weakening of short-term downward momentum.

  • MA10 (4344.35) follows closely, providing initial short-term support; however, above MA30 (4380.75) and MA52 (4389.23) still showcase a dead cross divergence and turn downward, forming an upward pressure zone for rebounds.

• Technical Indicators:

  • TD Sequence: A TD Down 9 bottom signal was precisely triggered near 4323.80 USD, with the current sequence recalculated as Up 2, indicating a technical demand for short-term rebound repair.

  • RSI (6,13,24): RSI2 is at 41.72, RSI3 is at 42.61, indicating that the indicators have exited the previously oversold area (25–30) and are approaching the midpoint, with oversold correction currently underway.

• Key Support and Resistance Levels:

  • First Support Level: 4338 - 4344 USD (MA5 / MA10 moving average overlapping area)

  • Second Support Level: 4320 USD (today's intraday extreme low defense line)

  • First Resistance Level: 4380 - 4390 USD (MA30 / MA52 dense pressure zone and previous breakout node)

  • Second Resistance Level: 4420 USD (previous platform rebound high point)

III. Operational Strategy Recommendations

Currently in the "TD9 oversold rebound after a big drop" phase, it is advisable to adopt a high sell low buy, strictly control position oscillation approach:

• Rebound Try Short (Main Strategy / Following Resistance):

  • Entry Point: After the rebound stabilizes and is blocked at 4380 - 4388 USD resistance pressure zone, lightly position short.

  • Increase Position Point: If rebounds are weak or break down, trend-following short lightly when it drops below 4340 USD.

  • Stop Loss Point: Strict stop loss if it breaks and stabilizes above 4400 USD.

  • Take Profit Point: Look down to 4345 USD, and if broken, watch 4325 USD.

• Low Buy Speculation (Supplementary Strategy / Oversold Rebound):

  • Entry Point: If stabilize without breaking previous lows while retracing to 4335 - 4340 USD, may try a short-term light buy.

  • Stop Loss Point: Stop loss if it drops below 4320 USD (which damages the TD9 rebound structure).

  • Take Profit Point: Look up to 4368 - 4378 USD for partial liquidation.

• Position Management: In the oscillation and repair market, control the first trial position at around 5%, with a total position cap not exceeding 15%.

IV. Risk Warning and Response Plan

• Oversold rebound hindered by moving average pressure: MA30 (4380) and MA52 (4389) are descending rapidly; if rebound volume is inadequate, a second bottom probe may occur near 4380 USD.

  • Response Plan: Long positions should not be greedy; approaching the 4380 USD pressure zone must decisively cash out, and avoid blindly buying at high levels.

• Liquidity withdrawal before major event release: As the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes approaches, market liquidity thins out, which can easily trigger up-and-down "pin" breakouts.

  • Response Plan: Clear short-term overnight positions before the major event is released during the US trading session, and refuse to hold without stop loss.

    

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