Bitcoin rebounds to $63,500, but market sentiment shows no significant warmth

On Monday morning in Asia, Bitcoin returned to around $63,500, rising about 1% for the day.

Meanwhile, Ethereum rose over 1%, nearing $1,900; Dogecoin increased nearly 1%, SOL had a slight rebound, and BNB remained around $604.

On the surface, the crypto market appears to be rebounding.

However, if we extend the time frame, it becomes clear that the market has not yet escaped the recent fluctuation pattern.

In particular, BTC, although back around $63,500, still has a considerable distance to truly break above the resistance area.

In other words:

This looks more like a short-term repair rather than a change in trend.

Why hasn’t BTC surged despite the weakening dollar and cooling interest rate expectations?

This market rebound has a fairly clear macro background.

First, the dollar.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index continues to weaken, declining for the third consecutive trading day and hitting lows not seen since May.

At the same time, the latest U.S. retail sales data showed a clear slowdown, with the monthly decline reaching its highest level in over a year.

This indicates that U.S. consumer spending is cooling down, and market concerns about overheating in the U.S. economy have eased somewhat.

More importantly, expectations for further rate hikes from the Federal Reserve are also significantly decreasing.

Currently, the swap market expects the probability of the Fed raising rates next month to drop to about 25%, down from nearly 50% a week ago.

Theoretically:

Weakened dollar + decreased rate hike expectations + improved liquidity expectations should be important positives for Bitcoin.

However, BTC only rebounded to around $63,500, without showing a significant trend breakthrough.

This indicates that the current market issues may not entirely stem from the macro environment.

Rather, they arise from the crypto market’s own funds and risk preferences.

If you want to understand how these macro data impact BTC, ETH, and the entire crypto market daily, you can follow the public account "Crypto Spring and Autumn," where we will continue to dissect the logic behind the market.

HYPE continues strong, major coins show significant divergence

From the performance of different assets, the internal divergence in the market is quite pronounced.

Hyperliquid's HYPE remains one of the standout assets recently.

HYPE rose over 3% on the day, reaching around $59, with a nearly 9% increase over the past 7 days.

In contrast, while ETH rose over 1% on the day, it still fell about 1% over the past 7 days.

XRP returned to around $1, but it still dropped about 3% over the past week.

SOL rebounded to around $75, but its weekly decline is still close to 2%.

BNB has essentially remained stagnant.

This trend suggests that the current market is not fully entering a risk-on state.

To be more precise:

Funds are rotating among sectors.

Some funds are flowing into relatively strong assets, but the overall market still lacks sufficient incremental funds.

Therefore, even if BTC makes a short-term rebound, it is difficult for the market to quickly form a comprehensive upward trend.

ETF fund slowdown, a key issue for Bitcoin's continued rise

Currently, one of the biggest pressures on BTC comes from institutional funds.

LVRG Research points out that the inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF funds has significantly decreased recently.

This change is worth noting.

Because for some time, one of the important driving forces behind Bitcoin’s rise has been institutional funds brought in by the U.S. spot ETF.

When ETF consistently sees net inflows, the market can gain relatively stable marginal buying support.

However, when ETF funds begin to slow down, even with a weakened dollar and decreased rate hike expectations, BTC may experience:

"Macro positives, but prices do not rise."

This is actually a very typical state of the current market.

Thus, the next judgment on whether BTC can truly break through cannot solely rely on whether the Fed lowers rates or decreases rate hike expectations.

There is also a need to observe a more direct data point:

Whether institutional funds have returned.

Two major catalysts this week may decide the market's next direction

Next, there are two important events in the market worth paying attention to.

The first is the Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes.

The minutes from the Fed's meeting on July 28-29 will be released this week.

The market will focus on one question:

How worried was the Fed about inflation and interest rate hikes at that time?

If the minutes release dovish signals, the market may further lower rate hike expectations, thus providing support for BTC.

However, if the minutes show that there are still strong hawkish voices within the Fed, then the recent rebound in the crypto market may be suppressed once again.

The second is progress related to the White House’s crypto policy meeting.

Regulatory policy remains an important variable in this year's crypto market.

If the policy level presents clearer positive signals, it may improve institutional expectations for the long-term development of the U.S. crypto market.

Therefore, what BTC truly needs this week is not merely a price rebound.

But rather:

Macro positives + regulatory catalysts + fund inflows.

Only with all three appearing simultaneously is there a greater chance of truly pushing the market to break through.

📌 The most important thing for BTC next is not just $63,500

Currently, the rebound around $63,500 does indicate that short-term buying interest has resurfaced in the market.

However, this is not enough to prove that a new round of upward trends has begun.

The biggest contradiction in the current market is:

The macro environment is improving, but the funds in the crypto market itself have not clearly flowed back in.

The dollar is weakening.

Rate hike expectations are decreasing.

U.S. consumption data is cooling.

These factors are all improving the environment for risk assets.

However, if ETF funds continue to be weak, BTC may still continue to fluctuate within a key range.

Therefore, there are three signals worth paying attention to next:

📌 Can BTC further break through recent key resistance areas
📌 Will U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs see sustained net inflows again
📌 Will the Fed's meeting minutes and White House crypto policies yield positive signals

If these factors begin to resonate, then $63,500 may just be the starting point of the next round of market movement.

However, if funds continue to hold back, BTC may still very likely maintain a fluctuating pattern.

—— I am Mr. Web3 X, closely following the changes in the crypto market, macroeconomics, and global financial markets.
If you want to further understand the logic behind market trends, policy changes, and the directions that funds are truly focusing on, feel free to follow the public account "Crypto Spring and Autumn," and let’s look at the daily market hotspots more clearly together.

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