1. Today's core news summary

1. Capital front: Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow for three consecutive days, institutional buying momentum has weakened
As of August 14th, Eastern Time, the American Bitcoin spot ETF recorded net outflows for three consecutive trading days, with a single-day net outflow of approximately 56.2 million dollars yesterday, ending the continuous inflow trend since the beginning of the month. Among them, BlackRock’s IBIT had a single-day inflow of 114.4 million dollars, but this was not enough to offset the large redemptions from products such as Grayscale’s GBTC and Ark’s ARKB, resulting in a overall pattern of "leading players holding firm while overall outflows occur." Ethereum ETF experienced balanced fund inflows and outflows yesterday, ending the previous trend of consecutive days of net inflows.

2. Clearing data: 166 million dollars in leveraged liquidation in 24 hours, with longs being the main affected party
In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount in the entire market's derivatives reached approximately 166 million dollars, involving about 88,500 traders, among which long liquidations totaled 97.29 million dollars, accounting for about 58.6%, while short liquidations were 68.64 million dollars. The liquidation scale for Bitcoin as an individual asset was the highest, with significant stop-loss orders triggered when prices dipped near 62,800 dollars, leading to further declines in market leverage levels and a temporary release of selling pressure.

3. Macroeconomic front: Inflation falls but rebound is absent, consumer confidence drops sharply suppressing risk appetite
The July CPI met expectations by hitting a four-month low, yet it did not drive the cryptocurrency market out of a trend-like rebound, mainly because institutional funds failed to form effective follow-ups, as fund flows increasingly followed price momentum rather than macro data. Meanwhile, the preliminary Michigan consumer sentiment index for August in the U.S. was only 51, significantly lower than the previous value of 55.2, raising marginal concerns about economic recession which suppresses overall risk appetite.

4. Industry dynamics: Public chain security incidents escalate, established exchanges withdraw from the stage
The vulnerabilities from Harmony's cross-shard replay attacks continue to escalate, with the scale of over-issued tokens far exceeding expectations. The team has initiated a chain rollback plan, sparking community debates on decentralization principles. The established derivatives exchange BitMEX officially announced it will cease operations on September 23, marking a complete reshaping of the industry landscape as it was a pioneer for perpetual contracts. On the technical side, the Ethereum Foundation announced it would abandon the Poseidon hash algorithm in favor of SHA-2 and BLAKE2, gearing towards a post-quantum cryptography route expected to achieve full-stack deployment by 2028.

5. Market sentiment: Cautious mood prevalent over the weekend, fear persists
The cryptocurrency fear and greed index remains in the 29-30 range, still in a "fear" state. Weekend market liquidity has significantly decreased, with trading volume shrinking by approximately 30% compared to working days. Traders are inclined to reduce positions to avoid uncertainty, overall displaying typical weekend characteristics of narrow fluctuations and shrinking volume.

Mainstream coin strategy and entry point reference
The following is a technical analysis summary for market reference only and does not constitute any trading advice.

1. Bitcoin (BTC)
Market characterization: Approaching the lower edge of the 62,800-64,500 dollar fluctuation range on the 4-hour level, with short-term moving averages in a bearish arrangement, MACD bearish column slightly amplifying, and volume continuing to shrink; 62,800 dollars represents the core divide between bulls and bears for the day, a break below could open up further downward space, prone to pinning events due to thin weekend liquidity.

• Key support:
◦ First support: 62,700 - 62,900 dollars (day's short-term acceptance point, recent fluctuation lower edge)
◦ Strong support: 62,000 - 62,200 dollars (bull-bear dividing line, breaking below would revert to the downward channel)

• Key resistance:
◦ First resistance: 63,500 - 63,600 dollars (day's fluctuation center, short-term pressure point)
◦ Strong resistance: 64,000 - 64,200 dollars (integer threshold + previous dense transaction area)

• Reference thoughts:
◦ Stabilize on pullbacks in the 62,600–62,900 range for light positions to bet on rebounds, with stop-loss placed below 62,200 dollars
◦ Shorting when rebounding to the 63,500–63,700 range under pressure, with stop-loss placed above 64,100 dollars

◦ Due to poor weekend liquidity, avoid chasing up and down; focus on quick entries and exits within the range, controlling individual position sizes to an extremely low level.

2. Ethereum (ETH)
Market characterization: Significantly stronger than Bitcoin, stable performance at the support range of 1,870-1,880 dollars, with ETF funds providing fundamental support; maintaining a neutral oscillation structure on the 4-hour level, with the integer level of 1,900 dollars still exerting pressure, generally moving in tandem with Bitcoin but with better elasticity.

• Key support:
◦ First support: 1,865 - 1,875 dollars (day's short-term acceptance point, lower edge of fluctuation center)
◦ Strong support: 1,845 - 1,855 dollars (bull-bear dividing line, breaking below would slow down rebound rhythm)

• Key resistance:
◦ First resistance: 1,895 - 1,905 dollars (integer threshold + day's high-point pressure)
◦ Strong resistance: 1,925 - 1,935 dollars (100-day moving average pressure)

• Reference thoughts:
◦ Stabilizing on pullbacks in the 1,860–1,870 range for light positions to test long, with stop-loss placed below 1,845 dollars
◦ Shorting when rebounding to the 1,895–1,905 range under pressure, with stop-loss above 1,920 dollars

◦ If volume effectively stabilizes above 1,905 dollars, one can look to see it near 1,930 dollars; breaking below 1,845 dollars would suggest maintaining a cautious stance.

3. Solana (SOL)
Market characterization: Following the broader market with weak oscillations, the effectiveness of the support around 75 dollars is to be validated, on-chain activity is flat, lacking independent catalysts; overall operating in the 73-77 dollar fluctuation range, with movement attached to Bitcoin, showing elasticity between BTC and ETH.

• Key support:
◦ First support: 74.5 - 74.8 dollars (day's short-term acceptance point)
◦ Strong support: 73.5 - 73.8 dollars (bull-bear dividing line, breaking below would revert to weakness)

• Key resistance:
◦ First resistance: 76.0 - 76.3 dollars (day's rebound pressure point)
◦ Strong resistance: 77.0 - 77.5 dollars (previous dense transaction zone)

• Reference thoughts:
◦ Stabilizing on pullbacks in the 74.3–74.7 range for light positions to test long, with stop-loss placed below 73.5 dollars
◦ Shorting when rebounding to the 76.0–76.5 range under pressure, with stop-loss placed above 77.2 dollars

◦ Breaking below 73.5 dollars is advised to be avoided; do not rush to bottom-fish; only follow through if there is a significant breakthrough above 77 dollars.

Operational supplement reminders

1. Weekend market liquidity is thin, prone to extreme pinning events; suggest very light positions, strictly setting stop-loss, with positions controlled within 50% of weekday levels.
2. Key variables for daily observation: U.S. pre-market risk appetite, movement of the dollar index, and potential regulatory and industry news over the weekend.

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