The recent trend of capital outflow from the market is becoming increasingly fierce. Last week, thanks to news and incremental funds, it barely climbed to the 65,000 position before showing signs of fatigue. Especially in the altcoin market, one by one, they jumped out to harvest liquidity, with many speculative coins bouncing all over the place, while retail investors chasing high prices are basically destined to take the losses.
Let’s do some calculations on the institutions' selling accounts, and you’ll see how significant the selling pressure is now. From June 29 to July 5, Strategy sold 3,588 BTC in just one week, cashing out about $216 million; from July 27 to August 2, they sold another 1,638 BTC, taking away $105 million; just past August 3 to 9, they sold another 1,690 BTC, cashing out $109 million. The cumulative total has reached nearly 7,000 BTC, and they are specifically targeting points of ample liquidity to sell off, mostly to retail investors who entered the market with faith. However, from another perspective, after this round of concentrated selling pressure is released, the next bottom range should not be far away.
Speaking of this, one must mention the contrast from Trump. His media technology group just released quarterly financial reports showing that the company currently holds 9,477.16 BTC, valued at about $557.1 million, a subtle decrease of 65 BTC compared to the end of March, which had 9,542.16 BTC. Affected by the decline in cryptocurrency asset prices, the company lost about $360 million in the first half of this year.
Previously, he repeatedly said "the United States will never sell Bitcoin," but now his own company is secretly reducing its holdings, which certainly feels like a slap in the face.
Currently, market expectations are highly consistent: everyone is waiting for the final drop. This morning, a large smart money operation was exposed, directly smashing over $100 million in short orders—famous trader DoshiAtoll opened a 40x short position of 1,576.23 BTC at 8 AM, valued at $100 million, with an opening price set at $64,039.
Prior to this, a giant whale had already positioned itself with a $102 million BTC short position and this morning increased the position three times, adding 1,010 BTC, boosting the total position to a new high of 1,792.56 BTC, valued at $114 million, with the average opening price updated to $63,999.
Looking back at the technical aspects, the daily level volume-price divergence is still in effect, with prices repeatedly stagnating around 64,000, but the volume never keeps up, indicating that this wave of rebound is fundamentally weak.
Using the Fibonacci retracement framework, from 57,800 to 67,500 in this round of increase, the 0.786 level is at 65,300. The first support is the range of 63,000-63,500, so keep an eye on that position for observation.
Switching to the 4-hour level, if it effectively falls below 62,000, the next step will likely test the 50,000 range. However, this kind of short-term scalping operation is too exhausting, and there’s no rush to enter; it's wiser to wait and observe clearly.
After discussing Bitcoin's market, let's talk about gold, which has been trending strongly lately.
I mentioned the opportunity for gold layout last week; I wonder if any friends followed? This week, the price broke through the 4,400 mark directly. At this trend, silver will likely start up soon too, and the gold and silver market is likely about to fully unfold.
This wave of gold price increase is not without reason: central banks around the world have greatly increased their gold holdings in the second quarter, and new central banks have been entering the market one after another, compounded with Tether consistently making large purchases, all signals indicate that the trend for gold has officially begun.
If you want to participate in the gold market, generally, there are a few common methods: one is to trade gold itself with leverage, direct and rough; the second is to layout gold-related targets, such as gold mining companies; the third is to engage in spot contracts, which can be participated through Aster or other exchanges.
Here’s a look at some official data to feel the strength of this wave of central bank accumulation: in the second quarter of 2026, global central bank gold purchases increased by 62 tons year-on-year, reaching 289 tons, marking the largest single-season increase since the fourth quarter of 2024. Compared to the previous quarter, purchases surged by 231 tons, marking an increase of 407%. So far this year, central banks have accumulated over 345 tons of gold and are still continuing to add positions.
According to the market's usual rhythm, it’s likely that various KOLs will follow suit and discussions will spread widely, fully bringing the market into public view. In the short term, pay attention to the 2,100 position; the cost-effectiveness of fitting in will be higher then, but of course, it should also be assessed with the news at that time.
Now, the overall market sentiment is leaning downward, so we need to wait for rebound opportunities, but we mustn’t rush in.
This kind of market really isn’t suitable for frequent short-term trades; a sudden news event can bring about one to two thousand points of fluctuation, and it’s not impossible to chase shorts down to 2,100. It's much steadier to consider taking a short after a rally.
Today, I’ll share a portion of my observations from the market perspective, and more solid content will follow gradually. Let’s also talk about the Aster platform; I recently compared a few similar competitors, and its data performance is quite outstanding. Every public chain is developing DEX now, and Aster’s airdrop incentives have always been noteworthy. Recently, new coin transactions can enjoy a 1.2x points bonus, so the cost-effectiveness of participating in new coin trading is very high if you want to get airdrops.
The rules are simple: season points = trading volume × 1.2x bonus (exclusive to new coins). The newly listed coins include \(SNXX,\) LYTE, $MUBARAK, $1000CAT, and $IOTX. Trading any of them will automatically enjoy a 1.2x points weight. Coupled with the fact that the platform’s transaction fee is relatively low, this translates to a very low cost to earn an additional 20% of season points, while waiting for the airdrop incentives to be distributed in August.
It's not complicated to operate; after opening the official website, first connect your wallet on the right side and switch to the Chinese interface.
After connecting successfully, click on the "Tokens" option on the left side and select the "New Listings" section to participate in trading.
Many of these newly launched coins are related to US stock investment targets, allowing you to layout related sectors while trading.
Many new friends have asked how to quickly get started; I have compiled a simple guide for beginners. Following it for a few minutes will get you sorted out.
Aster is a multi-chain decentralized perpetual contract exchange, supporting high-leverage trades and cross-chain operations, with overall costs being relatively low. It doesn't require traditional account registration; you can use it directly by connecting your wallet.
The first step is to prepare your wallet, like MetaMask or WalletConnect, both of which support multi-chain.
Then, add the networks supported by Aster in your wallet, like BNB Chain, Ethereum, etc.
The second step is to open the Aster official website, click "Connect Wallet" on the page, and choose your wallet to complete the authorization connection.
The third step is to transfer a small amount of USDT as starting capital from a centralized exchange once connected successfully, and you can start trading.
The dashboard on the homepage allows you to check your balance, and you can freely choose between spot or perpetual contract modes. Newcomers are advised to transfer a small amount for testing and to gradually adapt to the interface and rules starting from low leverage.
The fee rates for their perpetual contracts are very low, and combined with the funding rate mechanism, the actual trading costs can be kept very low.
Finally, I want to share some thoughts on this market.
In fact, the current industry landscape is completely different from earlier years. Just like how Robinhood has sparked a wave of retail investors in US stocks, new projects continue to emerge on-chain, and the enthusiasm and construction rhythm of the community often determine the direction of an ecosystem or even flagship projects.
In this wave of market movements, many MEME coins simply cannot get listed or deliver excess returns; people are afraid of losses, crowding into short-term high-frequency trading just to make a little money and then exit.
However, the truly valuable pre-positioning signals have long since left the public timeline. They are hidden in the directional tendencies of smart money’s addresses on the chain, in the anomalies of OI and capital flow, within the internal communities of projects, and within the circles of small-scale traders.
It's not that social platforms have lost value; rather, their functions have changed. They used to be used to discover opportunities, but now they are more often used to amplify opportunities. If your sources of information are still limited to public timelines, you are already sitting at the lower end of the information chain.
This is also why, in the Crypto field moving forward, competitive advantages will not stem from the number of KOLs you follow but rather your ability to capture the tendencies of capital movements earlier and whether you can enter higher-quality information networks. In a way, wallet addresses are becoming new personal trading business cards.
Currently, the chain is full of those making short-term bets; many medium to long-term investors are getting involved in counter trades and are actually losing money. But from another angle, for those who are truly committed to long-term logic, now is actually a good time to slowly accumulate chips.
Short-term trading is only suitable for day's swing operations; do not apply short-term fluctuation logic to long-term value judgments, or you may end up being the one buying at high positions.
Whether it's Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, or other targets in the sectors, all can be observed and gradually laid out; try to do less high-frequency betting operations; maintaining a steady rhythm is the key to long-term success.
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