1. Qualitative Analysis of Market Structure (ETH 4-Hour Cycle)

From the perspective of the Bollinger Bands and box structure, this round of market movements is following the rhythm of the large box defined previously. The short positions set up in the 1910-1940 high-pressure area have seen prices retreat as expected, currently operating within the mid-range of the box at 1860-1880.
The upper Bollinger band is forming strong resistance, with multiple upward attempts rebounding, and bullish momentum is weakening; the middle Bollinger band serves as the short-term dividing line between bulls and bears. Currently, the price is oscillating below the middle band, indicating a continuation pattern after a high-level retreat, and it has not yet established a unidirectional trend.
Key support is found at 1830-1840, which corresponds to the lower Bollinger band and the bottom area of the box; resistance above is at 1900-1920, coinciding with the previous oscillation platform and the upper Bollinger band pressure zone.

2. Two Short-term Market Scenarios

1. Downward Test: Currently, the price is oscillating in the mid-section of the box, and there exists potential for a secondary downward movement, with targets primarily looking toward the 1830-1840 bottom support of the box. This level is a key defensive area for bulls, and only an effective break will open deeper downward space.

2. Rebound Correction: In the short term, there is also potential for a rebound correction, with rebound targets looking at the pressure near 1900. Touching this area remains a bearish outlook and consists of a rebound resistance structure within the oscillation.

3. Trading Thought Process

The current stage is in the middle area of the box, marked by repeated oscillations and more pin bars, indicating a high-stakes area. Both bulls and bears have short-term opportunities, but the margin for error is low.
Prudent Thought: Do not actively place frequent trades in the middle section; patiently wait for prices to touch the boundaries of the box.

• If it touches the 1900-1920 pressure zone above, then consider configuring high short positions;

• If it retraces to the 1830-1840 bottom support, look for a stabilization signal before considering low buy positions.

4. Core Summary

The overall structure is still within box oscillation, and no unidirectional breakthrough has occurred. Do not make subjective anticipations of breaks in advance; instead, wait for confirmation signals at key support/resistance before taking action. Prioritize trading boundary opportunities with high risk-to-reward ratios to reduce ineffective trades during mid-range oscillations. Managing position size and frequency of action is the key to surviving in an oscillating market.

Public Account - Bitcoin Bear X

(Note: 📣 Due to the time sensitivity and depth limitations of information on public platforms, the market changes rapidly. Key turning points, precise operational strategies, and sudden risk alerts must be synced immediately on the public account. Here you can obtain: Real-time strategy updates, in-depth analytical support, interactive Q&A, risk warnings specific to personal positions, and optimization suggestions. 🚨 Remember: The market always rewards those who act faster and possess more accurate information! Be a winner in the minority.)

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。