The market has yet to find direction

Currently, Bitcoin's market is still moving very slowly.

The core expectation on the 6th was very clear: waiting for the price to pull back again after completing the entire adjustment, and then continue to move upward; after this upward movement is completed, consider looking for shorting opportunities at high levels.

Now it is already the 11th, and five days have passed, with the price still hovering around $64,000 to $65,000, basically just oscillating back and forth, with overall movement very slow.

However, from the perspective of the larger cycle, mid-term structure, and future trends, the current judgment has not changed significantly.

In the short term, the core viewpoint from the 6th remains: the previous pullback has occurred, and the next key observation is where this pullback can reach and whether the bullish structure remains valid after the pullback.

If it stabilizes after the pullback, then there is still the expectation of continuing to challenge previous highs; but if the structure is damaged, then we need to be cautious of the market entering a new downward phase from the current position.

Larger cycle: currently in the supercycle four-wave adjustment

From the perspective of the wave theory's larger structure, Bitcoin's wave count is relatively clear at the moment.

Starting at $19,800, this can be defined as the first wave of the supercycle, followed by a second wave adjustment.

After that, Bitcoin rose to around $110,000 last year, which corresponds to the third wave of the supercycle.

Currently, the market has entered the fourth wave adjustment of the supercycle.

During this fourth wave adjustment process, Bitcoin reached a high of $126,000.

This $126,000 high is essentially a very strong B-wave rebound.

The rise from $74,000 to $126,000 is not a motive wave nor a terminal wedge. A more detailed analysis of this structure has been done previously, and here I will provide the conclusion directly.

After $126,000, Bitcoin entered a large C-wave decline.

From the current structural judgment, this C-wave is more likely adouble three-wave structure rather than a triple three-wave structure.

The possibility of a triple three-wave structure was also considered before, but after repeated scrutiny and comparison, the current judgment favors the probability of a double three-wave structure.

The Y wave is not over, and $57,700 is not the final low

From $126,000 to $80,600, this segment can be defined as the W wave.

Subsequently, the price rebounded to $97,800, forming the X wave.

And from $97,800, we are now in the Y wave.

It is particularly important to emphasize:

$57,700 is not the final low of the Y wave; the Y wave has not yet ended.

The current structural judgment of the Y wave is a triangular structure.

At this stage, the market is operating the fourth wave rebound of the triangle.

The typical performance of the fourth wave of the triangle is:

It can't go up, and it can't go down.

Prices will continue to be pulled, making the market look very entangled, with gradually narrowing fluctuations, yet unable to truly choose a direction.

This exactly matches the current performance of the market.

After the fourth wave rebound, there is one last drop

According to the current structure, after the fourth wave rebound is completed, there will still be one pullback targeting the third wave.

The pullback target is approximately around the 50% level of the third wave, and at present this position has coincided with the lower boundary of the trend line.

Besides the spatial correspondence, the time cycles are also quite harmonious.

Therefore, whether from the perspective of movement characteristics, space, or time, understanding this segment of the market as the fourth wave of the triangle has a high level of consistency.

This means that the next thing to wait for is not an endless bearish market, butthe final drop after the fourth wave rebound ends.

This drop is likely to test or even break the left-side low again.

However, regarding the downward space, one should not have overly high expectations.

It has been repeatedly emphasized before:

Near $55,000, even with extreme market conditions, the downward space is relatively limited.

It can be understood that around $55,000, plus or minus $1,000, is a very important area.

Even if a situation arises in which the left-side low is broken later, it does not mean that the market will continue to experience substantial and sustained declines.

Do not mechanically apply past bearish bottom indicators

Here, it is necessary to reiterate a viewpoint.

Some bottom indicators often used at the end of past bear markets may not be effective in this round of the market.

There is already a wealth of mature theories and judgment methods in the market regarding various indicators for the end of a bear market.

But the problem is,the historical patterns of bear market bottoms cannot be simply replicated in the current market.

Therefore, one should not directly conclude "the bear market is over" or "the bottom has been found" just because a few indicators appear.

This round of the market needs to focus more on the current structure, price, and market operation method, rather than mechanically applying past experiences.

The most worthwhile trade is this last drop

Therefore, the core opportunity that is truly worth focusing on right now is very simple:

Wait for the final drop.

Regardless of whether the market is ultimately defined as a double three-wave, a triple three-wave, or a triangular structure, there is an upcoming downward expectation with a high degree of certainty.

If it ends up being a triple three-wave, then after this wave of impulse rebound ends, there will be an X wave rebound followed by later impulse declines.

If it ultimately is a triangular structure, then after the fourth wave rebound is completed, there will still be one last down movement.

So, regardless of which structure is used to explain it, the trading opportunity pointed to is the same:

The most worthwhile wait right now is for the final drop.

“Everyone is bearish, so it won't fall” has no logical basis

There is often a saying in the market:

“Now everyone is bearish; will the market end up not falling?”

Or:

“Everyone is bullish, so will the big players not let it rise?”

These types of judgments actually lack a logical foundation.

For institutions, market makers, and smart money, when the market truly needs to choose a direction, there are essentially only two directions:

Up or down.

The difference is that they often conduct a lot of groundwork in terms of positioning, liquidity, and market structure before choosing a direction, creating conditions for the direction that is about to emerge.

It is not because “retail investors are all bearish” that the market will definitely not fall.

The simplest example is a bull market.

After adjustments in a bull market, the market often turns bullish again, with retail investors being bullish and institutions also being bullish.

Does everyone being bullish mean that the market will not rise?

Clearly not.

When it is time to rise, it will still rise.

Therefore, one cannot simply deduce the market's ultimate rise and fall direction based on whether retail investors are bullish or bearish.

Short-term strategy: wait for stabilization, then look for high shorts

Returning to the current market, the most important thing at this stage is still patience.

If Bitcoin shows clear stabilization signals during this pullback, one can consider entering a short-term long position to capture the space of the fourth wave rebound.

But it needs to be clear:

Short-term longs are not the current core trading direction.

The truly important opportunities to capture continue to be the high shorts after the fourth wave rebound ends.

Therefore, the current trading logic can be summarized as:

Pullback → Wait for stabilization → Short-term long → Observe rebound strength → Look for shorts at highs → Wait for the final drop.

The specific price area for high shorts has been judged previously; the subsequent focus should be on whether the price can enter the corresponding area and whether there are clear reversal signals on the chart.

Ethereum is relatively weak

Currently, there is not much that needs to be elaborated on regarding Ethereum.

Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's movement is clearly more bearish.

Therefore, even if Bitcoin can break the left-side high later, Ethereum may not necessarily break in sync.

Currently, Ethereum's structure is already relatively complete, which is also why its subsequent performance may be weaker than Bitcoin's.

So at this stage, the focus of trading and observation should still be on Bitcoin.

Conclusion

The current large cycle structure has not changed significantly.

Bitcoin is in the fourth-wave adjustment phase of the supercycle, currently running a large C-wave since $126,000, and the Y wave has not yet ended.

At this stage, it is more inclined to understand the market as a triangular structure within the Y wave, and it is now running the fourth wave rebound.

Therefore, what is most worth waiting for next is not endless decline, but:

the final drop after the fourth wave rebound ends.

In the short term, if stabilization occurs after the pullback, one may consider a short-term long; however, after the rebound, the more important trading opportunity remains to find high shorts.

At the same time, do not simply use "everyone is bullish/bearish" to judge the market's final direction, nor mechanically apply past bear market bottom indicators.

The most important thing currently is still the structure, price, and actual movement.

Patience in waiting for the market to complete the last structure is what is most worth doing right now.

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