"Jiangfeng Trading Strategy Diary" Issue 26

Review of Strategy Issue 25 from Yesterday:

The article from yesterday stated:

📌BTC: Short position around 65300
📌ETH: Short position around 1935

Subsequently, Bitcoin rebound to a maximum of around 65348 before starting to fall, with a minimum touching around 63788, the first target has been achieved.

Ethereum faced resistance around 1930, not reaching the expected pressure around 1935.

Currently, part of the prior high position short has been reduced, and the remaining position continues to be held for breakeven betting.

So today’s thinking remains unchanged:

Do not chase shorts, wait for a rebound; do not heavily invest, wait for confirmation.

🚀August 11 BTC/ETH Market Strategy Issue 26: Entering undervalued stage and treat tomorrow's CPI data with caution

📌Ethereum: Short first position near (1905~1915), add short near 1950
🏁Target 1850~1815
🏁Target 1780~1720
🏁Target 1680

📌Bitcoin: Short first position near 64800~65000, add short near 65700,
🏁Target 63800~63500
🏁Target 62600~61300
🏁Target 60800~59000

⚠️: Pay attention to position control, do not heavily invest all at once, participate lightly, and maintain a steady flow! The targets mentioned above are mostly support levels, decide on taking profits in batches according to one's actual situation! If the above strategy has not been triggered for entry, just continue holding the short positions from issue 25 and issue 24!

What is the most critical thing to focus on today?
Rather than merely watching the fluctuations in BTC by a few hundred points, today what truly needs attention is the US July CPI. The market currently expects the July US CPI year-on-year to be around 3.4%, with core CPI around 2.5%. CPI will be released in the evening of August 12th Beijing time, one of the most important macro data for the market this week.

Why do I repeatedly emphasize CPI? Because what the market is truly trading now is not simply "whether inflation is high or low," but:

Will the expectation of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September change after the CPI data comes out?

If inflation is significantly below expectations, the market may re-trade the expectations of interest rate cuts, and risk assets may have a chance to gain support.

But if CPI is above expectations, especially if core inflation is relatively strong, then the market's expectations for interest rate cuts may cool down again, putting short-term pressure on BTC and ETH.

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