Yesterday the market once again verified a fact: the bulls have the willingness, but lack the funds to sustain the market momentum.

BTC continuously attempted to breach the same resistance area six times, but was unable to effectively break through, ultimately choosing to adjust downward during the US stock trading session, officially beginning a daily-level correction.

Currently, the cycles below 4 hours have basically completed their adjustments, while the 8-hour, 12-hour, and daily cycles have yet to fully rectify. If today continues to fulfill the time and space corrections, then a higher-level bullish resonance may be expected in the future.

The biggest variable this week remains the US CPI data to be released on Wednesday.

The market has already entered a wait-and-see mode in advance, with recent volatility dropping to a yearly low, typical of the **“calm before the storm”**.

• If CPI is below market expectations, expectations for interest rate cuts may rise, and risk assets could see opportunities for recovery;

• If CPI is above expectations, the market might increase expectations for tightening policies in September, adding short-term pressure on the cryptocurrency market.

Therefore, before the data is released, it is more important to focus on position management rather than betting on direction in advance.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

Viewpoint: Primarily short on rebounds, focus on the adjustment rhythm before CPI.

BTC has finally broken below its previous consolidation platform after a prolonged sideways movement.

Previously, the price maintained a long-standing range around 64600—65400, where the bulls repeatedly attempted to break through but failed to do so, continuously consuming bullish momentum. With the critical support broken, short-term bears have begun to regain the initiative.

Currently, the technical setup shows:

• The 4-hour MACD death cross continues to expand, and bear momentum has not yet fully released;

• The price is running along the lower Bollinger band on the 4-hour chart, with the trend still skewed to the downside;

• The 1-hour RSI is about 33.8, though it's close to being oversold, it has not yet entered the extreme oversold area, leaving room for further adjustment;

• The market shows a high proportion of active sell orders, indicating that short-term buying interest remains insufficient.

Overall, unless it stabilizes above 64300, it is still advised to either reduce positions or take profits at high levels during rebounds.

If a significant drop occurs with volume breaking through critical support, attention should be given to opportunities to follow the downward trend; if a distinct stop-loss signal surfaces after a rapid decline, one may wait for a near-term recovery.

Key Levels

Support:

• 63300-63500

• 62200-62600

Resistance:

• 64300

• 64800-65200

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

Viewpoint: Primarily short, focus on recovery opportunities after sharp declines.

ETH has continued to show weaker overall movement compared to BTC recently.

Though the daily chart remains in a recovery phase, the overall structure has not shown significant improvement, and pressure from the moving averages above remains concentrated.

Currently, it appears that:

• EMA30 and EMA60 are concentrated between the 1870—1905 area;

• The 4-hour Bollinger bands are continuously narrowing, with moving averages entangled as bulls and bears await a new direction;

• The ETH/BTC exchange rate remains under pressure, indicating that ETH has greater short-term elasticity, but also higher risk of downward volatility.

It should be particularly noted that:

If BTC further breaks below key support, ETH typically experiences a larger decline; however, if a rapid drop occurs accompanied by clear stop-loss signals, it may also present short-term recovery opportunities.

The current market still belongs to a low liquidity environment, technical rebounds after sharp drops are still worth noting, though trading should primarily focus on light positions with quick entries and exits.

Key Levels

Support:

• 1860-1870

• 1847-1855

Resistance:

• 1890-1900

• 1910-1933
  
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This article is originally published by 【Huiying Community】 and represents personal views only. Due to a certain delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please judge rationally and operate cautiously.
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