Beijing time, August 8, 2026, Saturday.
Yesterday, Bitcoin's overall trend remained relatively stable, continuing to maintain the previous oscillation pattern. After the employment data was released, some changes occurred in the market, with prices briefly attempting to surge to $65,300, but failed to break through effectively, subsequently returning to below $65,000.
Employment data released, market expectations changed
The employment data released yesterday was quite special, with a decrease of 23,000 jobs, significantly lower than the previously expected increase of over 80,000. Meanwhile, the data for May and June were revised downward by around 100,000. The unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1%, but the labor participation rate also dropped to around 61%.
Therefore, this data cannot be simply understood as "the unemployment rate has decreased, and the economy is stronger," as it is closer to indicating that the job market is cooling down, while some people are withdrawing from the labor market. For short-term risk assets, liquidity expectations are relatively positive.
Hourly line peaks, $65,300 remains key resistance
From the hourly perspective, yesterday at noon, the price reached as low as around $64,100 but did not break below the $64,000—$64,100 range. The price then began to rebound, with the focus rising throughout the afternoon, reaching $65,000 at 7 PM and further spiking to around $65,300 at 8 PM.
Although the price briefly broke through the previous high of $65,022, this breakout did not hold, and the price returned below $65,000. In the early morning, there was another attempt to push higher, but it fell back again, currently hovering around $64,800.
Thus, the characteristics of the current market are very evident: **there has not been continued momentum after the upward surge, and there has not been continuous decline following the downturn.** This suggests that the market is temporarily in a phase of high-level digestion.
The same is true on the 4-hour chart. Since August 2, the price has found support around $62,280, and on August 4 and 5 there were two bottom-testing sessions that did not break through, followed by an upward correction. At 4 PM on August 7, a significant bullish candle appeared, breaking through the previous consolidation area.
However, by 8 PM, after attempting to peak at $65,300, the price fell back again. The following two 4-hour candles, while not managing to stay above $65,300, also did not drop below around $64,600. Therefore, the current structure resembles high-level consolidation after a breakout, rather than the beginning of a second-phase upward movement.
What truly needs to be watched next is the $65,300—$65,500 range. If a solid breakout occurs and the price stabilizes above it, there is a chance for further upward movement; if it cannot break through, then the high-level oscillation will continue.
Daily and weekly charts remain in oscillation structure
On the daily chart, there is currently no significant damage to the bullish repair structure. The closing on August 6 was around $64,300, not breaking below the previous repair area; the closing on August 7 came to $64,800, above $64,600—$64,700, but still not breaking through $65,300. Therefore, the daily chart is still in a high-level digestion phase.
The weekly chart similarly remains within a large range, still oscillating around $63,200—$66,000. The previous failure to break $66,000 has seen the price retreat to around $63,200, followed by another rebound. It is still within this range.
Changes in open interest, more like high-level turnover
In terms of open interest, from 8 PM to midnight yesterday, while the price was rising, open interest increased, yet the price did not continue to push higher, indicating intense competition for positions around $65,000.
From midnight to 8 AM today, open interest began to decline, but the price essentially did not show significant drops, appearing more to reflect high-level turnover and slight deleveraging rather than a clear withdrawal of funds.
In terms of moving averages, currently the 5-day, 7-day, 20-day, and 60-day moving averages have formed dense support, with prices standing above all these averages, making the $64,500—$64,600 area a relatively important support zone.
If the price can continue to maintain above this area, then the short-term structure still leans bullish. Conversely, if it effectively breaks below $64,600, it will require reevaluation of the upward judgment.
Multiple indicators still lean bullish, but trend strength is lacking
The signals from the Bollinger Bands and the Vegas indicator are also quite similar. On the 4-hour chart, prices remain above the middle band, with the EMA12 around $64,600, providing support. This indicates that the mid-to-short-term repair structure has not been damaged, but the Bollinger Bands have not shown a clear expansion, so the surge last night cannot be temporarily defined as the start of a trend.
Regarding MACD, the hourly chart has already shown a death cross, suggesting that the short-term upward momentum is cooling and needs to recharge; however, the 4-hour chart still maintains a golden cross and is above the zero axis, indicating that repair momentum still exists. The daily chart also maintains a golden cross.
DMI indicates that the hourly and 4-hour charts are still bullish, but the daily ADX is only around 6, suggesting extremely low trend strength in the larger cycles.
For RSI, the hourly chart has returned to the neutral zone, while the 4-hour and daily charts remain above the 50 axis. Therefore, there are no clear signals indicating a bearish reversal, but the cost-effectiveness of continuing to chase upward in the short term is starting to decrease.
ATR also indicates that the overall market volatility is declining. The daily ATR has fallen to around 1,400, and the 4-hour ATR is around $500. At the current volatility level, $65,300 still falls within the normal testing range, but whether it can truly break through requires confirmation from the 4-hour closing.
In terms of Fibonacci, the 0.786 level on the 4-hour chart is around $64,700, and the current price is just above this level. If it can hold above $64,700, there would still be support below; if it breaks below, then further attention will need to be on $64,100.
Today focuses on two areas
Based on comprehensive analysis of naked candles, moving averages, Bollinger Bands, Vegas, MACD, DMI, RSI, ATR, and Fibonacci, the market signals are quite unified: short-term leans upward, but the trend is not strong, and high-level consolidation remains the main state.
Below, $64,600 is currently a significant defense level for bulls, with further attention on $64,100. As long as $64,600 is not effectively broken, the overall structure can still be viewed as leaning towards bullish repair.
Above, first watch $65,000, then $65,300, the real breakthrough needs to happen at $65,400—$65,500.
Today's market judgment
Today, I personally tend to lean towards: narrow oscillation, bias towards the upside.
The market may first attempt to test $65,200—$65,300, but whether it can truly break through $65,500 will determine if it can transition from oscillation to further upward movement.
If around noon today, the 4-hour candle can close above $65,000, then the narrow oscillation may have a chance to shift to an upward trend; if it cannot hold, the market will continue to digest.
Conversely, if the following 4-hour chart effectively breaks below $64,600, then the current upward judgment fails, and the price will need to be re-evaluated for $64,100 or even lower positions.
Therefore, there is no need to overly guess the direction; what truly needs to be awaited is the breakthrough of $65,300—$65,500 and the results of defending $64,600.
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