Cryptocurrency Market Performance
The current total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.2 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.9%, which is $1.3 trillion. The market value of stablecoins is $300.3 billion, a decrease of 0.12% over the last 7 days, with USDT accounting for 61.05%.
Among the top 200 projects on CoinMarketCap, most have risen and a few have fallen, including: BTC with a 7-day increase of 1.35%, ETH with a 7-day increase of 0.54%, SOL with a 7-day increase of 0.67%, HYPE with a 7-day increase of 4.34%, and PUMP with a 7-day increase of 24.72%.
Market Forecast (August 10-16):
The RSI index is at 54.9 (neutral), the Fear and Greed index is at 26 (fear), and the Altcoin Season index is at 46 (neutral).
BTC: $61,000 - $66,000 (with $62,000 as short-term support; if it falls below this, $60,000 will be seen)
ETH: $1,800 - $2,000 (underperforming)
SOL: $70 - $80 (weak consolidation)
HYPE: $50-$60 (relatively strong)
Currently, it is essentially about seeking probabilities in a highly uncertain market. The cryptocurrency market is at a delicate crossroads: macroeconomic advantages are emerging, but internal capital is rotating violently, and market sentiment has not yet emerged from "fear." July and August are typically the off-peak trading months each year, and it is now in the midst of a deep bear market. The probability of continued fluctuation in the market next week is high. The gains and losses of BTC at $62,000 will be key to judging the short-term direction. If this level is effectively broken, market sentiment may quickly turn pessimistic; conversely, if it stabilizes here with increased trading volume, it may challenge resistance levels above again.
Risk Warning:
“Liquidity Trap” in the Market: A concerning signal is that global stock markets are hitting new highs due to the AI boom, and macro advantages such as the Hormuz Strait Agreement have not been able to boost cryptocurrency prices. This indicates that the current selling pressure or exhaustion of buying power is a structural issue within the market. If the advantages cannot be converted into upward movements continuously, the market could face risks of a rapid downturn once new negative factors emerge.
The Double-Edged Sword of Leverage Liquidation: Last week saw large-scale leveraged liquidations in the market, with a very high percentage of short positions (86% of BTC short positions were liquidated). This "short squeeze" scenario has pushed prices higher in the short term, but it has also consumed a large amount of buying power.
Understanding Now
The U.S. CLARITY Act Faces Key Senate Vote Window, but Passing Probability Drops Significantly
This week, the CLARITY Act, seen by the market as the "most important legislation" for the U.S. cryptocurrency industry, enters a critical stage before the Senate vote, with August 7 regarded as an important milestone before the August recess. However, as controversies escalate (involving terms like stablecoin interest payment and restrictions on officials' participation in cryptocurrency business), its passing probability has dropped significantly. Wall Street firm Bernstein warns that if the bill fails to pass, it could trigger a short-term sell-off in the cryptocurrency market. As of August 3, prediction market Polymarket shows that the probability of the bill passing before the end of 2026 has fallen to 31%, a decrease of 7 percentage points within a week.Japan's FSA Officially Establishes "Cryptocurrency and Stablecoin Department"
The Japan Financial Services Agency (FSA) officially established a dedicated "Cryptocurrency and Stablecoin Department" on August 7. This marks the elevation of cryptocurrency asset regulation from decentralized lower-level offices to an independent department aimed at addressing challenges in financial digitalization and laying the organizational foundation for future regulatory reforms (such as the reclassification of cryptocurrency assets, lowering tax rates, and possible approval of spot ETFs).G20 Urges Global Regulators to Monitor Cryptocurrency Asset Risks
This week, G20 finance ministers and central bank governors issued a joint communique calling for international regulatory bodies such as the Financial Stability Board (FSB) to monitor cryptocurrency asset risks and consider taking multilateral responses when necessary. While the communique acknowledges that technological innovation can bring benefits, it remains vigilant about issues related to investor protection and anti-money laundering.Bitcoin Under Pressure with Market Sentiment Still in "Fear" Zone
Bitcoin faced downward pressure this week, fluctuating between $62,000 and $65,000, failing to maintain the rebound momentum from July. Influenced by macroeconomic uncertainties, unclear U.S. regulatory outlook, and ETF capital outflows, the cryptocurrency market sentiment indicator (Fear and Greed index) remains in the "fear" zone. However, with signs of easing geopolitical tensions, risk appetite has somewhat rebounded, leading Bitcoin to rise above $64,000 on August 6.Institutional Strategies Diverging: Bitmine Aggressively Increases ETH Holdings, Strategy Pauses BTC Purchases
Institutional giant Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) announced this week that it has paused Bitcoin purchases and raised cash reserves by selling stock, keeping its holdings at 843,775 BTC unchanged. Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining company Bitmine Immersion Technologies continues to increase its holdings of Ethereum (ETH), currently holding 5.79 million ETH (about 4.8% of total supply), with approximately 85% already staked, expecting an annualized staking reward of about $299 million.Divergence in Fund Flows between Bitcoin and Ethereum Spot ETFs
Data shows that on August 4 (Eastern Time), Bitcoin spot ETF had a total net inflow of $211 million, with BlackRock's IBIT leading the inflow at $170 million. However, looking at a longer period, the U.S. Bitcoin ETF recorded a net outflow in July, while the European market maintained a small inflow, creating a contrast.Coldcard Hardware Wallet Vulnerability Attacked, Loss Estimated at Nearly $89 Million
A significant security incident broke out this week: addresses related to Coldcard hardware wallets from Canadian company Coinkite were attacked, quickly affecting about 4,500 addresses, with estimated losses close to $89 million. This incident shows that even "cold storage" is not absolutely secure, and the operational risks of self-custody cannot be ignored.Wall Street Giants Promote Asset Tokenization, DTCC Launches Production Testing
The penetration of cryptocurrency technology into traditional finance is accelerating. Nearly 40 financial institutions, including JPMorgan, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Vanguard, and the New York Stock Exchange, are participating in a tokenization pilot by the U.S. Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), tokenizing assets such as stocks (like Microsoft), ETFs, and U.S. government bonds, and have begun limited production trading.Shifts in Capital in South Korea Market, Some Stock Market Funds Flowing into Cryptocurrency Exchanges
During the recent decline of the South Korean stock market (KOSPI), signs of some funds flowing into cryptocurrency assets have emerged. Data shows that the trading volume of the Korean won against Tether (USDT) on major exchange Upbit surged 600% in a short time, possibly reflecting some investors seeking new opportunities amidst stock market fluctuations.Germany Plans to Adjust Cryptocurrency Tax Policies
The German Federal Minister of Finance plans to change the tax rules for capital gains from cryptocurrency assets. According to current regulations, holding cryptocurrencies for over a year is tax-exempt, but the new plan intends to impose a fixed withholding tax rate of 25% on cryptocurrency gains (similar to stock gains), sparking widespread attention from the German cryptocurrency community.
Macroeconomics
On August 5, the U.S. ADP employment figures for July indicated 44,000 new jobs, below the expected 70,000, and the previous value was revised downward from 98,000.
On August 6, the U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending August 1 stood at 199,000, below the expected 202,000, with the previous value revised upward from 197,000 to 198,000.
On August 7, according to CME's "FedWatch," the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in September is reported at 44.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike stands at 55.4%.
Envisioning the Future
Industry Conferences
Conviction 2026 will take place from August 14 to 15 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Coinfest Asia 2026 will be held from August 20 to 21 in Bali, Indonesia.
Bitcoin Hong Kong will occur from August 27 to 28, 2026, in Hong Kong, China.
Important Events
On August 12 at 20:30, the U.S. will release the July unadjusted CPI year-on-year data.
On August 13 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce initial jobless claims for the week ending August 8 (in ten thousand).
Project Progress
Loopring announced that its smart wallet addresses holding NFTs will adopt artificial refunds, with a deadline of August 15, 2026, and users can send emails to the official email address for identity verification to claim.
The CDP lending protocol Superseed L2 chain will officially terminate on August 15, migrating the entire ecosystem to the Ethereum mainnet. Users holding assets such as USDC, USDT, cbBTC, and ETH must complete cross-chain transfers before this date; after the deadline, the official cannot guarantee asset recoverability.
Token Unlocking
Babylon (BABY) will unlock 139 million tokens on August 10, valued at approximately $1.53 million, accounting for 5.49% of the circulating supply.
Linea (LINEA) will unlock 1.08 billion tokens on August 10, valued at approximately $2.42 million, accounting for 3.5% of the circulating supply.
io.net (IO) will unlock 13.25 million tokens on August 11, valued at approximately $1.63 million, accounting for 3.46% of the circulating supply.
Aptos (APT) will unlock 11.3 million tokens on August 12, valued at approximately $6.65 million, accounting for 0.66% of the circulating supply.
Starknet (STRK) will unlock 125 million tokens on August 15, valued at approximately $3.25 million, accounting for 3.61% of the circulating supply.
Sei (SEI) will unlock 89.26 million tokens on August 15, valued at approximately $3.66 million, accounting for 1.42% of the circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research, as the core investment research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, is dedicated to transforming professional analysis into practical tools for you. We analyze market contexts through our "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Reports"; utilizing the exclusive column "Hotcoin Selection" (dual screening by AI and experts), we highlight potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers also engage with you face-to-face through live broadcasts, interpreting hot topics and predicting trends. We believe that warm companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize value opportunities in Web3.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investing inherently carries risks. We strongly advise investors to fully understand these risks and invest under a strict risk management framework to ensure capital safety.
Website: https://www.hotcoin.com/r/Hotcoinresearch
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
