Today is Friday, and the most noteworthy event this week is the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll Data.

Over the past few days, the cryptocurrency market has maintained a range-bound pattern. Although it has occasionally been influenced by fluctuations in the U.S. stock market, it has not developed into a true one-sided trend. Each time it tests the upper resistance levels, it lacks sustained incremental capital to follow through, quickly retreating back into the range after a breakthrough.

The biggest issue in the market remains insufficient liquidity.

The technical structure is gradually leaning towards the bulls, but the upward momentum has not been able to form sustainable volume, resulting in the market only advancing through pullbacks to build momentum—then testing highs again, rather than developing a smooth trending market.

The non-farm payroll data released tonight could very well become an important catalyst for short-term directional choices. If the data significantly deviates from market expectations, BTC and ETH could potentially break through the current range.

Therefore, before the data release, the risks of chasing price movements remain high, making it more suitable to wait for the market to provide a clear direction before following the trend.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

View: Waiting for a breakout, 65000 remains the key watershed.

BTC is still in a typical converging triangle pattern:

• Highs are consistently declining;

• Lower highs are continually rising;

• Volatility space is becoming smaller.

This structure typically indicates that the market is building strength, and once a breakout occurs, subsequent volatility often significantly amplifies.

The most critical position remains around 65000.

• If it breaks 65000 with volume and holds, the bear stop-loss orders may be triggered, pushing the market further towards 65400 or even 66200;

• If it faces resistance again, one must still guard against the price retesting 64000 or even 63200 support.

In terms of technical indicators:

• Daily RSI remains neutral;

• Daily MACD negative value continues to narrow, but has not formed a golden cross;

• ADX remains low, indicating that the trend has not truly started;

• 4-hour MACD has shown divergence, indicating certain short-term pullback pressure;

• 1-hour MACD green bars are shortening, suggesting bear momentum has weakened.

It is worth noting that the current buy-sell order depth ratio is about 2:1, with buy orders significantly thicker than sell orders below, indicating that once market sentiment improves, the buying force below is still expected to provide support.

Overall, we are still in the waiting for a breakout phase, and tonight’s non-farm data could become an important variable in driving the market’s direction choice.

Key Positions

Support: 64000-63200

Resistance: 65048-65400-66200

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

View: Strongly fluctuating, still dominated by BTC movements.

ETH has recently performed slightly better than BTC overall, but it still has not completely established an independent trend.

Currently:

• 4-hour structure remains relatively strong;

• Daily continues to maintain a range-bound structure;

• Prices are continually contesting around the 1900-1927 area.

The capital situation still provides some support:

• Spot ETH ETF continues to see net inflow;

• Large on-chain holding addresses are continuously increasing, indicating that some long-term capital is still positioning.

However, the current rise is more about coordinated recovery rather than an independent bullish trend.

Key positions to focus on next include:

• Holding above 1909 and breaking 1924 would likely continue to challenge the resistance near 1950;

• If it falls below 1892, the market may re-enter a defensive rhythm, continuing to maintain the range-bound fluctuation.

Overall, until BTC shows a clear breakout, ETH is likely to continue fluctuating within the repair trend.

Key Positions

Support: 1890-1895-1872-1850-1860

Resistance: 1926-1950-1982

This article is originally published by 【Huiying Community】 and represents personal opinions only. Due to certain delays in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make rational judgments and operate cautiously.
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