Recently, the US stock market has been soaring, with technology stocks leading the charge. In this kind of market, almost everyone has the same question in mind: Is the US stock market entering a new bull market?
It's often said that the US stock market is either reaching new highs or on the way to new highs, giving people the impression that it's hard to get stuck once you're in, and this is indeed very appealing. However, today let's take a different analytical perspective.
Instead of listening to various analysts' opinions or guessing whether the news will lead to a rise or fall, let's just open Hyperliquid and see what real money on the chain is betting on.
Today, we will mainly discuss three things: Is the strong performance of the market a result of genuine bullish participation or just a rebound from squeezed shorts; is there incremental capital willing to chase the AI chip sector; and what is the outcome of that 17 million dollar SPCX long position in commercial space?
We will also demonstrate the recently launched on-chain features of AiCoin at the end of the article.

You can mount a wallet address onto the K-line chart to visually see at what price large holders opened positions, when they added to their positions, and whether they later had stop losses; you can also set address alerts so that whenever a large holder makes any adjustment, you will receive a reminder.
Everyone can vote in the comments section:
A. The US stock market has returned to a bull market.
B. It's just a rebound now.
C. The index is bullish, but there is significant divergence among individual stocks.
After looking at the data on the chain, I personally lean towards option C. When looking at the SPX and XYZ100 contracts on Hyperliquid, one can clearly feel the strong power of short covering, with the scale of short positions far exceeding that of longs.
Imagine many traders have placed short positions on US stocks on Hyperliquid, yet the index keeps climbing. They are faced with two options: hold on to their losses or close their short positions and exit. Closing shorts itself is a buying force, and when many shorts are focused on covering, the price will naturally be pushed higher.
This means that currently the market isn’t seeing a unified bullish view from on-chain capital, but rather shorts being squeezed out by the market trend.
In such a situation, would you choose to chase the market or wait for a pullback opportunity?
I wouldn’t rashly enter the market based solely on a single day's index surge; I would keep an eye on two signals.
Even though the market continues to rise, the funding rate remains negative, indicating that shorts have not completely exited, and there's still a chance for short squeezes; I'll look for opportunities to take small positions in the short term.
However, if the price becomes stagnant, and the funding rate rapidly returns to normal, it means that shorts have basically retreated while new bullish capital is not following in, and this rebound will likely come to a halt.

Back to the main topic, let's talk about the ever-popular AI and chip sector.
On the Hyperliquid platform, the most active category for trading in US stocks is related to semiconductors.
The trading volume for SK Hynix-related contracts broke 600 million dollars in 24 hours, Sandisk exceeded 430 million dollars, Micron around 340 million dollars, the DRAM index 220 million dollars, and AMD close to 160 million dollars.
Including Nvidia, this pile of chip contracts together surpassed 1.6 billion dollars in trading volume within 24 hours.
The concentration of capital is visually apparent, but many people easily fall into the misconception: seeing explosive trading volumes in a sector makes them assume everyone is wildly bullish. In reality, there is significant internal disagreement within the sector.
For example, comparing Nvidia and AMD reveals a stark difference at a glance.

Nvidia's increase exceeds 4%, with open contracts approximately 179 million dollars, and the funding rate has remained positive in the past 24 hours.
This market logic is easy to understand: prices are rising, and bulls are willing to incur costs to maintain their positions, which indicates proactive bullish aggression.
On the other hand, AMD's situation is quite awkward.
With a trading volume of 160 million dollars in 24 hours, its stock price has fallen by about 4%. What's even more noteworthy is that AMD's funding rate has also remained positive.
Consider what this implies.
Prices have started to drop, yet bulls are still gathering on the ground, continuing to pay the funding rate to shorts.
AMD's current problem is not that there are no optimistic views, but that the bullish chips are overcrowded.
If the stock price fails to rebound quickly, the trapped bulls will eventually choose to reduce their positions. Once they all rush to exit, the original bullish positions will instantly turn into sell pressure.
Though both belong to the AI chip giant sector, Nvidia represents overcrowded bullishness in an upward market, while AMD represents overcrowded bullishness in a downturn. Merging the two sectors under the banner of AI presents a stark difference in trading difficulties.
This is why I do not advise just jumping into one of the stocks because "the AI sector is strong."

At this stage, the battle for funds is based on the substantial performance gaps of various companies, rather than on a vague AI concept; the leaders will ultimately remain leaders.

0x32008fcb6bbd16532afc83ca8b6c920dde22c407

This address is currently the largest Nvidia long on the chain, with a position size of around 43.55 million dollars, at an average cost near 211.79 dollars.

You can add this address to your watchlist, and the movements of on-chain whales can serve as an important reference dimension for the market.

For bearish indications, you can pay attention to this address: 0x3dc908374e11623d8eb9f07dfc7a2e5e803a54b0

When using smart money tools, prioritize focusing on opening price levels; do not immediately look at profit numbers.
Some addresses begin to gradually position themselves before earnings announcements and continue to add after the report is released, reflecting a strategy of advance ambush.
However, there is another category, where after the earnings report is released and the stock price has spiked significantly, they jump in with high leverage to chase, which is essentially speculative following.
Even if you see a profit of 1 million dollars on the books, the value of the two types of trading is not on the same level. Holding steady at a low position with low leverage versus aggressively pushing with 20x leverage after a news announcement is fundamentally different.
The K-line can directly display wallet avatars, allowing you to clearly see large holders' entry timings. By clicking on the avatars, you can view average opening price, position size, profit and loss condition, and liquidation price all at a glance.
In the past, studying large holders could only rely on scattered transaction records, making it difficult to correspond to the market conditions at the time. Now, when directly mapped to the K-line, it's easy to discern whether one is quietly ambushing at low positions or entering at high positions after the market heats up. With the crypto space having been so silent for a while, such functions are indeed worth looking forward to.
Another key point to remember is not to take positive funding rates at face value as a bullish signal.
Always assess it in conjunction with price trends.
When the price rises in tandem and the funding rate gradually turns positive, it reflects a healthy bullish market.
If the price remains stagnant while the funding rate escalates, beware of overheated bullishness.
If the stock price has already fallen but the funding rate remains high, it indicates that there is still a large group of unwilling bulls holding firm.

In the past, when researching US stocks, we often could only rely on various research reports from brokerages, many of which had a built-in bias towards buying stocks.
On-chain data is different; each operation by large holders is completely transparent, which helps to diminish some of the information asymmetry for ordinary retail investors. Even if you do not use Hyperliquid, you can still use AiCoin to track on-chain capital movements.
Next, let’s review today’s most representative subject, SPCX.
Currently, SPCX's price hovers around 115 dollars, with a 24-hour transaction volume on Hyperliquid reaching 841 million dollars.
This trading scale even exceeds the S&P 500 and technology index contracts.
However, strangely, while the trading volume skyrocketed, the price remained nearly unchanged.
Currently, open contracts are about 184 million dollars. Remember when we tweeted previously, there were still 228 million dollars in open contracts. The trading volume expanded from 226 million to 841 million, yet the position size decreased by over 40 million, with the price remaining stable.
This doesn’t seem like a major influx of new bulls, but more like a fierce back-and-forth between longs and shorts, with old positions continuously retreating.
Who left the market? Let's dig into this address: 0xb37f083bad343a76361cd8f39afe7ecd6a0a66ca
This was the sensational 17 million dollar SPCX long position that made waves in the market.
At the time, it held 147,510 shares at an average opening price of 114.963 dollars, used 20x leverage, with a liquidation price of 105.45 dollars. The entire account was concentrated on this single position.
Many people saw this big position and thought that this whale must have insider info. The market could see it continuously adding positions, even rushing in just before the earnings announcement, with everyone waiting for the earnings report to drop and then shoot up.

​​​​​​​

However, at 4:18 AM on August 5th, when the earnings report was released, it became clear that the so-called whale can also become just another big "sucker!"
It began liquidating continuously, clearing all its SPCX longs.
Ultimately, this trade resulted in a loss of approximately 708,000 dollars, with trading fees of 3,740 dollars. This address no longer holds any SPCX position.
The earnings report disclosed that SPCX's revenue was acceptable, but the expenses in the AI direction were higher, leading the market to panic and sell off, burying this whale.
If we only look at the initial opening screen capture, we might still think it was firmly bullish. But with the address mounted to the K-line, from building positions, adding to positions, to stop losses and exiting, the entire process is clearly laid out. This showcases the practical value of the AiCoin on-chain tool.
The aggressive new bulls have already taken losses and exited, but how are the old bears faring? Are they steadily taking profits?

Address: 0x9e8b1e51c642f4c8b87c6ba11c53d516a218afc4

Currently holding 89,279 shares of SPCX short, position value 10.33 million dollars, average opening 152.29 dollars, with an unrealized gain of 3.27 million dollars.
Originally having only over 70,000 shares short, it not only didn’t take profit and run but continued to add to its short position.
On August 4, when the price dropped to around 115, it added to the short, and when the price subsequently rebounded to 121-123 range, it continued to add to the short.
It's clear that its trading logic is very straightforward: the rebound is not a point for bears to stop losses, but rather an opportunity to increase shorts.
But I remind everyone not to jump in and short just because they see it.
Their cost is at 152 dollars, backing it up with over 3 million in unrealized gains as a cushion. In contrast, if we open a short at 115 now, the cost conditions are completely incomparable.
Moreover, this address is not only betting on SPCX but also holds 19.6 million dollars in oil shorts, which are likewise profitable.
It’s possible they don't have exclusive insider info on SPCX, but has rather a macro-level short combination strategy.

Let's look at another address:

0xf929122994e177079c924631ba13fb280f5cd1f9

Holding 50,008 shares of SPCX short with a position of 5.78 million dollars, average opening at 142.145 dollars, with an unrealized gain of 1.32 million dollars.
Choosing to hold position while also holding a Sandisk short.
When we align these three wallets together, the situation becomes clear:
The aggressive bulls who rushed in to gamble on the earnings are already at a loss and have left the market.
Meanwhile, two batches of veteran bears are still in the game, grasping substantial profits with a great cost advantage and little liquidation risk.
Currently, the initiative in SPCX positions still lies with the veteran bears.
These addresses serve as a warning: don't stubbornly hold to bottom fish against the trend, especially with leveraged trading. Trend-following is the way to go; even whales with huge capital can't escape being harvested when they are wrong about direction.
Seeing this, someone might ask, with the bulls gone and the bears still present, should we directly follow and short?
In my view, chasing a short position right now wouldn’t be comfortable either.
The key still lies in the funding rate.
In the early stage, the funding rate for SPCX was positive, meaning the bulls paid the bears; subsequently, it gradually turned negative, with the bears paying the bulls.
After the 17 million dollar long position exited, the number of new shorts opened in the market has actually increased.
With the earnings data not being recognized by the market, yet prices remain stagnant, the market is now stuck in a sideways fluctuation; participating in it at this stage isn’t very cost-effective.
So how do we make good use of AiCoin’s on-chain tools?
Copy the wallet address, open the AiCoin smart money page, and paste it for inquiry.
First browse its historical trades and current holdings, then add the address to the K-line chart for SPCX.

Next, set alerts for this address.
Whenever a large holder opens positions, adds to, reduces, or entirely closes positions, AiCoin will send you reminders.

This is far more useful than just glancing at a snapshot of holdings.
Just because a major holder is bullish today doesn’t mean they will be tomorrow. The multi-million dollar long position in SPCX is a living example.
If you simply copy their initial opening position, but the big holder has already exited at a loss, following them would leave you stubbornly waiting with your position for a rebound.
Therefore, the real application of smart money tools is not blindly following a whale but rather placing the address on the K-line to observe its opening costs, adding pace, and exit signals. Wait until its entire trading logic is validated by the market before using it as your reference.
If anyone has US stock targets or wallet addresses they want to see, feel free to leave them in the comments, and we can directly mount them to the K-line to discern whether they are accumulating at low positions or chasing high after the market heats up.

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