The major currency still maintains the adjustment expectation, patiently waiting for the best opportunity to go long

Let’s first take a look at the major currency.

When the price of the major currency reached this position yesterday, I told everyone to continue expecting it to move down, and it would be best if it could break the previous low. However, it didn’t break this low yesterday; instead, it closed with a bullish candlestick.

With this bullish candlestick appearing, how should the market proceed now? Has the future expectation changed?

My conclusion remains unchanged: In the future, I still expect it to complete an upward rise after an adjustment, this expectation has not changed.

However, the bullish candlestick last night indicates that the market may have the possibility to form a bottom, but it is still not the time to enter long positions; this position is temporarily not suitable for going long.

Wait for a second retest confirmation, then consider entering the market

At this point in the market's development, everyone should be somewhat familiar with this type of trend.

Switching the time frame to 8 hours or 12 hours, we can see that the current adjustment phase is very similar to a historical adjustment phase.

The current position is also very close to that stage after hitting the bottom.

At that time, the market began to gradually strengthen after hitting the bottom, but the truly suitable time to go long was not when the rebound first appeared, but rather to wait for subsequent confirmations.

Why didn’t we position yesterday?

The reason is simple: because the risk at this position remains high and certainty is insufficient; the price still has the potential to continue falling.

Thus, we are truly waiting for another bearish candlestick to appear later.

Focus on the lower right area

Currently, the market needs to focus on the lower right area.

You can draw a box in the lower right area, roughly in this position.

Wait for the price to fall back into this area; as long as it can form lower shadows and stabilize after falling into the box, it will indicate that this wave of decline acted as a bear trap.

Once the market completes the bear trap and stabilizes, only then should we start to enter long positions; this is currently the most prudent trading method.

Therefore, the overall expectation for the major currency remains unchanged, and the specific logic still refers to yesterday.

No consideration of participation in Ethereum for now

As for Ethereum, if you have chosen to trade the major currency for now, there is no need to consider participation in Ethereum.

Although the smaller-level movements are not as strong as the major currency, looking at the larger time frame, Ethereum still belongs to a very strong variety.

SanDisk has high volatility, more suitable for contract trading

Next, let’s take a look at SanDisk.

Recently, SanDisk’s volatility has been very high, which is a clear advantage for contract trading.

Currently, we have already entered a short position on SanDisk around 1300.

From the trend perspective, it has been operating within a descending channel.

Even if this descending channel has not yet fully concluded, it will not be long before adjustments occur.

The adjustment mentioned here refers to upward adjustments.

However, this week I still believe the risks outweigh the opportunities.

Therefore, we choose to position short near the upper boundary of the channel.

Our goal is quite clear, at least to first make up for the previously left pin area, before considering exit.

The stop loss should be set slightly outside the channel, for example, around 1380 or 1390.

Then observe whether it continues to drop to fill further, or further breaks below the previous low, and adjust strategies step by step thereafter.

Why do we believe the adjustment is not far off?

Many people will ask why we judge that the adjustment is not far off?

The reason is that both SanDisk and the AI technology sector have been continuously declining for a long time since their peaks.

A true bottom cannot be completed with just a single bullish candlestick.

The market usually goes through a second retest.

Currently, the certainty of this second retest appearing is quite high.

From the risk-reward ratio perspective, it is also a relatively suitable position, so we choose to participate.

Of course, SanDisk itself is highly volatile, with daily fluctuations reaching tens of percent; therefore, strict risk control is essential.

We also keep our positions very light.

Continue to wait for signals inside the box for the major currency

As for the major currency, currently, the most important thing is still to patiently wait.

The opportunity within this box may appear today, tonight, or tomorrow morning; I believe it is highly probable that we will see it.

After the signals truly appear, then consider entering the market.

It would be best if it could form a bear trap structure like before, and then after stabilizing, we can position long.

According to normal expectations, this wave of upward movement will still maintain the rhythm of "advance three steps, retreat two steps."

Therefore, there is no need to rush into futures.

Especially at the bottom of a bear market or the end of a bear market, the speed of market advancement is generally slow, which requires more patience.

Gold is about to choose a direction

Finally, let's briefly discuss gold.

Gold is currently still operating in a triangle consolidation structure.

This triangle has entered its final phase, and will soon choose a direction.

Personally, I still lean towards a downward direction.

Once that downward movement is completed, there may be a relatively good rebound.

It has been consolidating here for over a month now, with overall small fluctuations and low operability. If not confident, it is advisable to temporarily wait and not participate in trading.

The last high cost-performance opportunity in the bear market

Lastly, I would like to remind everyone of one more point.

This wave of upward rebound is essentially still just a part of the adjustment.

Yesterday I also emphasized that we prefer the price to retest downwards, completing the long without breaking key positions.

If the price can achieve a false breakout of the trendline, that would be even more ideal.

Because after a false breakout of the trendline, re-establishing above it can form a very good confirmation effect.

Then the price can come back to fill the previous gaps.

If we really see such a structure, then these positions are very likely to be the last high cost-performance opportunity for spot positioning in this bear market.

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