Yesterday the market once again staged a typical "roller coaster" performance.

The Asian session saw a continuous decline, while the US session quickly rebounded strongly with the help of the stock market, resulting in back-and-forth liquidation, with volatility noticeably increasing. BTC briefly refreshed its short-term high during the session but eventually pulled back after reaching a peak, closing on the daily chart with a doji candlestick; ETH's overall performance remained weak, recovering some of the losses but showing insufficient rebound strength, with the daily chart still dominated by large bearish candles.

This round of rebound was more driven by external market sentiment.

The significant rise in the US stock market last night provided short-term support for the cryptocurrency market, and an important factor driving the rebound in US stocks was Trump's repeated signals regarding negotiations, which caused a recovery in market risk appetite.

However, this kind of news is more about sentiment catalysis and does not change the core contradictions currently faced by the market.

What truly influences the mid-term trend of the cryptocurrency market is still:

• Whether liquidity improves;

• Whether the macro monetary environment shows signs of turning;

• Whether subsequent negotiations can truly achieve substantial progress.

If there is only news-driven speculation without continuous capital inflow, then the market is more likely to experience peaks and pullbacks, rather than forming a sustained upward trend.

₿ Bitcoin (BTC)

View: Mainly short positions, supported by some long positions, closely monitor if bottom-fishing capital continues to enter.

Although BTC formed a doji yesterday, the information on the chart is worth paying close attention to.

The long lower shadow indicates that there is some buying support below, while the upper shadow reflects that selling pressure at high levels remains significant, with the market still in a phase of intense long versus short battle.

From a higher time frame perspective:

• Daily and 12-hour charts have started showing signs of bottoming, with some capital already entering at low levels;

• Weekly and monthly charts still maintain rebound structures and have not been significantly damaged yet.

However, this round of rebound is more driven by market sentiment, and without new funds continuously following up, the height of the rebound may still be limited.

The real risks to watch out for still come from two aspects:

• Market liquidity continues to tighten;

• Failure of negotiation expectations or the emergence of new negative news.

Therefore, the current operational strategy is still recommended to maintain:

• Rebound approaching pressure zones, with a preference for short positions;

• Buying on dips at key support with signs of stopping declines may be considered with light positions;

• Focus on whether trading volume continues to expand to confirm if funds are genuinely returning.

Key Levels

Support: 63000

Resistance: 64050-64500-65178

⟠ Ethereum (ETH)

View: Overall still weak, mainly short positions, focus on rebound opportunities.

ETH's recent performance continues to be weaker than BTC.

Currently, the large cycle downtrend structure has not changed, and short-term rebounds rely more on BTC's drive rather than gaining strength independently.

From a technical perspective:

• 4-hour chart has failed to effectively break through the area around 1873 after three consecutive attempts, and trading volume is gradually shrinking, indicating that selling pressure above still exists;

• Daily chart has entered a repair phase after a deep drop yesterday, with bullish strength recovering somewhat.

Whether ETH can truly open up upward space depends greatly on whether BTC can break through key resistance zones.

If BTC breaks out with volume, ETH is more likely to see a quick rebound, even completing a brief surge through a spike.

Therefore, it is still recommended to:

• Maintain a preference for short positions, supported by some long positions;

• Focus on the opportunities that arise after BTC breaks through rather than chasing ETH's price increase in advance.

Key Levels

Support: 1840-1850-1800-1820

Resistance: 1876-1895-1920

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