Whether it's Bitcoin or Ethereum, since the previous short-term rebound began, it has surged from 64256 to 65752 for Bitcoin and from 1873 to 1982 for Ethereum. In terms of overall volatility, Ethereum has a stronger impact, while the rise of other cryptocurrencies is not significant, which can be considered fluctuations within a range. Rest assured, it will drop soon due to insufficient reserve funds. A brief review, today’s topics to discuss are somewhat excessive, let me think about it a bit. Recently, I have been meeting with friends in the circle frequently, most of whom are seasoned users, and I can feel everyone's confidence is being diminished. Whether from a strategic perspective or due to multiple factors accumulating from the earlier explosion of the tech sector, the crypto circle has not increased but has instead reduced, and this impact can be described as somewhat contrary to the truth. Seeing profits as negative, yet lacking any actual strategic support for the future, the key point is that this drop does not contain any substantial blow. The source is merely a wave of operations by certain platforms, causing all cryptocurrencies to be halved, and there are still no recovery signals at present.

Most friends are obsessed with the present and can only see the short-term market trends without understanding the future planning of cryptocurrencies. In the following sections, I will try to be objective and provide a simple overview of the future definition of cryptocurrencies. Please be patient, this article contains a lot of valuable information. When discussing trends, one must mention Trump's thoughts on the crypto circle, which are merely to consolidate grey market funds to rescue the American economy (this is clearly already bankrupt). Secondly, it’s to reduce the power of the Federal Reserve and reclaim currency pricing power (this seems to have been agreed upon peacefully). These two points were elaborated on extensively previously, with the bankruptcy of the first point leading to subsequent struggles over energy, while the bankruptcy of the second point will promote the progress of cryptocurrency legislation. My confidence mainly comes from the recognition by Americans, including the current expansion of the market which provides a unique channel for some economically underdeveloped countries wishing to bypass the dollar system; the value of this channel is unpredictable.

Secondly, regarding the current trends, many people feel that we are at the end stage of the crypto circle. I do not share this view, as these trends combined with news seem more like the early stages of legalization, akin to the old path of securitization. First is the legislation which defines what can and cannot be done, followed by refinement. This is also why I have always focused on making significant investments in listed cryptocurrencies, as I am very clear that once this path is successfully executed, it will mean a lot for the already listed cryptocurrencies. The future of Bitcoin, Ethereum, SOL, and DOGE will likely resemble an index, with the dependent cryptocurrencies being specific companies. How many securitized companies will be fully digitized in the future? This is the trend of the crypto circle. At the very least, integrating blockchain technology will completely eliminate data falsification issues and make all companies more transparent, which I believe is something both the U.S. and all countries want to see; the current trend also has a shift toward this direction.

However, I have not properly assessed the transformation's painful period and have been overly naïve about some political matters; especially the misjudgment of the situation in Iran has directly postponed the crypto legislation by a year, and there’s even a possibility of a government shutdown in the U.S. this September. This will impose a kind of pressure on interest rate cuts and future crypto strategies, pushing back the timeline. Recently, the data regarding USDC has actually piqued my interest; USDT’s circulating market cap has reached 183.9 billion, while USDC has reached 72.4 billion, which everyone needs to be alert about; unconsciously, USDC’s market share is growing, reaching a certain percentage will sooner or later lead to actions against USDT. The U.S. will not hand over pricing power in the crypto circle to a single company. The path to compliance is essentially a transfer of power, and between this power handover lies capital turnover. From the current volume of funds, frequent turnovers have consistently occurred within the declining range, with the core chip exchange area concentrated around 60000-70000.

The rebound timing of the bull market can currently be estimated within a general range, and my view differs from many friends, so feel free to regard it as an opinion. Most economists predict that the outbreak of a bear market will concentrate around 2027-2029. The support for the bear market viewpoint is the saturation of AI. From the current state of the U.S. AI market, it indeed faces significant issues. The competition between the two is very fierce; recoverable aircraft have directly led to a $500 billion evaporation for Musk, and the subsequent AI model has also caused major losses for the U.S. AI sector and even the semiconductor sector. This has led many people to ponder where these funds should congregate? Unfortunately, Bitcoin inherently has anti-inflation properties. Theoretically, a financial crisis caused by inflation should not spill into the crypto market and may even benefit its applications. However, one must consider that most of the crypto whales currently are still supported by tech companies in the U.S., and BlackRock, MicroStrategy, and Musk himself hold substantial shares in U.S. stocks. Amid a financial crisis, will they withdraw funds from the crypto circle? I believe the answer to this question is very clear.

Even so, my thoughts differ from these voices in the market. The key point is the issue of rate cuts, which is the signal released today. In my understanding, this leans more towards an interest rate hike signal, and the entire bear sentiment will shroud the market for nearly a month. Current confidence is still in a liquidity phase; there are simply issues with expectations that are not insurmountable. Especially recent non-farm payroll data has increased the probability of interest rate cuts, and it would not be fast to end the liquidity phase in the short term. Including signals from within the country are also very clear, having set the tone for continuous monetary easing policies for the next few years since the beginning of the year. I also hope everyone pays attention to other markets; rate hikes in the U.S. will bring gold back into a bull market, and the crypto circle will likely be affected. Once rate hikes begin, everyone can start purchasing gold to hedge against losses in the crypto circle. The market's feedback is also very prompt, first declining and then recovering, but will still head downward subsequently. 

I have many theories that are explained beforehand, and the market movement comes later; this is also true for the exchange rate issues that many of you may not have paid attention to earlier. There is a significant bias against the CNY exchange rate overseas, with the loudest voices coming from the EU and the U.S., both of which are eager for the appreciation of the exchange rate, causing domestic products to lose competitiveness. As long as the current situation can be stabilized, it would be a huge blow to the U.S. and the EU. After trial and error, as long as extreme measures are not taken, capital will still return to the crypto circle, which is also the reason for the recent strong advocacy of stablecoins and will make the stablecoin market expand further. Remember, without any substantial measures, the signals released by the U.S. are likely not to be a market rescue but rather a puncturing of the bubble. Not cutting rates would mean completely giving up the tech sector, while rate cuts would still allow for a possibility to delay the arrival of the bear market. The crypto circle will be linked to market volatility, so don’t hold too much hope; the current trend still leans bearish, and in the coming days, you may encounter the bearish market you want, possibly breaking our previous estimated support at 62000!

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