1. Today's Core News Summary

1. Macro Core: Surge in rate hike expectations on the eve of the FOMC meeting puts pressure on risk assets
The Federal Reserve will hold a monetary policy meeting on July 28-29. The market originally expected interest rates to remain unchanged, but institutions like Castle Securities have recently predicted a 25 basis point rate hike, with futures showing that the probability of a rate hike has risen to 30%-35%, and a September rate hike has been fully priced in. The rising expectations of a rate hike directly suppress global risk assets, causing a plunge in Nasdaq futures and a significant setback in the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin hitting an 11-day low.

2. Liquidation Data: Over 160,000 people liquidated in 24 hours, concentrated long positions trample
In the past 24 hours, the total liquidation amount across the market reached $686 million, involving over 160,000 traders, with long positions liquidated at $542 million and short positions at $145 million, showing a typical long liquidation scenario. Bitcoin led the long liquidation scale among individual cryptocurrencies, followed closely by Ethereum. The rapid decline in the early session triggered massive stop-loss orders for leveraged long positions, exacerbating the downward slope.

3. Fund Situation: Continuous outflow from ETFs, with institutional funds showing strong wait-and-see sentiment
The US Bitcoin spot ETF has seen a net outflow for several consecutive days, with a single-day net outflow of about $240 million on July 24; the Ethereum ETF also recorded a net outflow of $70.7 million during the same period, ending the previous continuous inflow trend. The rebound lacks sustained institutional spot fund support, relying more on derivative leverage, which is also a significant reason for the substantial decline.

4. Geopolitics and Sentiment: Middle East situation fluctuates, market panic levels rise
US President Trump stated that if diplomacy fails, military strikes against Iran will resume. Geopolitical uncertainty combined with rate hike expectations double depress risk appetite. The cryptocurrency fear and greed index has fallen back to 24, returning to the "extreme fear" zone, with market risk aversion rapidly increasing.


The total market capitalization of the global cryptocurrency market has fallen back to $2.26 trillion, shrinking by about $50 billion in 24 hours, with significantly increased trading volume, indicating that the market has entered a risk release phase.

3. Mainstream Coin Daily Strategy and Entry Point Reference

1. BTC

Market Qualitative Analysis: The 4-hour level has broken the key support of $64,000, the short-term rebound structure has been disrupted, and $63,000 is the core dividing line for longs and shorts today; if it falls below, further downward space will open up, with the upper $64,000 turning from support to resistance.

• Key Support:
◦ First Support: $62,800 – $63,000 (the lifeline for longs and shorts today, lower edge of the previous oscillation platform)
◦ Strong Support: $61,800 – $62,000 (mid-July low, if broken, mid-term trend weakens)

• Key Resistance:
◦ First Resistance: $63,800 – $64,000 (original support turned resistance, core pressure point for today's rebound)
◦ Strong Resistance: $64,800 – $65,000 (7-day moving average pressure, must stabilize above to alleviate the decline)

• Daily Reference Thoughts:
◦ A rebound can be lightly traded if stabilizing in the $62,800–$63,000 range, with a stop loss placed below $62,500

◦ A short position can be taken if it rebounds to the $63,800–$64,000 range, with a stop loss placed above $64,400

◦ If it effectively drops below $62,800, bottom fishing is not recommended, and look down to around $62,000; focus on defensive strategies before the FOMC

2. ETH

Market Qualitative Analysis: Quickly dropping over $100 from a two-week high of $1,980, breaking the key support of $1,900, and short-term long structure dissolves; however, long-term ETF funds are still favored, and after the decline, there may be a technical repair demand, with overall trends highly correlated to BTC.

• Key Support:
◦ First Support: $1,860 – $1,870 (short-term receiving point for today)
◦ Strong Support: $1,830 – $1,840 (previous oscillation platform, dividing point for longs and shorts)

• Key Resistance:
◦ First Resistance: $1,895 – $1,905 (integer round + original support turned resistance)
◦ Strong Resistance: $1,925 – $1,935 (7-day moving average pressure)

• Daily Reference Thoughts:
◦ A rebound can be lightly traded if stabilizing in the $1,855–$1,865 range, with a stop loss placed below $1,835

◦ A short position can be taken if it rebounds to the $1,895–$1,905 range, with a stop loss placed above $1,920

◦ If it breaks below $1,830, it is advisable to avoid trading and not rush to bottom fish

3. SOL

Market Qualitative Analysis: Falling more than BTC and ETH, highly elastic but weak in decline resistance, with the key support of $74 broken, returning to a weak pattern in the short term; on-chain activity is flat, lacking independent market catalysts, with operations primarily following the overall market.

• Key Support:
◦ First Support: $72.5 – $73.0 (short-term receiving point for today)
◦ Strong Support: $71.0 – $71.5 (mid-July low, if broken, will set a new low)

• Key Resistance:
◦ First Resistance: $74.0 – $74.5 (original support turned resistance)
◦ Strong Resistance: $75.5 – $76.0 (7-day moving average pressure)

• Daily Reference Thoughts:
◦ A rebound can be lightly traded if stabilizing in the $72.3–$72.8 range, with a stop loss placed below $71.5

◦ A short position can be taken if it rebounds to the $74.0–$74.5 range, with a stop loss placed above $75.2

◦ If it breaks below $71, it is advisable to maintain a wait-and-see attitude and not to bottom fish on the left
Operational Supplementary Reminders

1. On the eve of the FOMC interest rate decision, market uncertainty is extremely high, and volatility can easily amplify. It is recommended to reduce positions and set strict stop losses to avoid heavy betting on directions.
2. Core variables to observe today: statements from Federal Reserve officials before the meeting, changes in risk appetite after the US stock market opens, and key levels of $63,000 (BTC) and $1,860 (ETH) gains and losses.
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