Trump (Hormuz) TACO Index Quantification Tool - Data Shows Trump Most Likely to Shift Around July 26

The Andrew Bishop team of Signum Global Advisors created a "Hormuz TACO Index" to assess at what level of market and economic pressure Trump might ease his stance on Iran.

This index is primarily composed of four data points: Brent crude oil prices, U.S. ten-year Treasury yield, the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the S&P 500 Index. Higher oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields, fewer vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, and greater pressure on U.S. stocks will continue to drive up the index.

After backtesting Trump's policy shifts in recent years, Signum found that when the index deviates from normal levels by 2.3 to 3.4 standard deviations, Trump typically takes action, with the average shift occurring at about 2.9 standard deviations.

According to current data, Trump has not yet reached the point of needing to TACO, but he is getting closer. Signum predicts through linear extrapolation that Trump may shift as early as July 22. If the market environment does not improve significantly, he should take action by July 30 at the latest, with historical patterns indicating July 26 is the most probable time point.

The interesting aspect of this chart is that it turns Trump's potential shift from mere speculation into an observable pressure indicator. Whether Trump is willing to continue escalating the war depends on the composite costs brought by oil prices, inflation, interest rates, stock market, and Hormuz shipping. As long as these pressures continue to rise at the current pace, the probability of renegotiation, pushing for a ceasefire, or reducing the intensity of military actions will increase.

Of course, this is just a model derived from historical data and cannot guarantee that Trump will TACO on July 26. The situation facing the Strait of Hormuz is also more extreme than in the past, and whether historical patterns remain effective will be seen in the near future.

@Gate Crypto, U.S. stocks, Hong Kong stocks, Korean stocks, gold, CFD, one-stop trading for prediction markets

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。