Although I suspect that your account is just an AI diversion, it doesn’t matter, as I think these are probably questions from fellow partners, and I will still answer seriously. However, I really dislike personal attacks whenever there are differing opinions; different opinions are normal. Friendly discussions about who is right or wrong are still uncertain.

First, I stated quite clearly in my original text that even if oil prices rise to 140 dollars, my position can still withstand it. At the same time, I don't believe that WTI can maintain above 100 dollars for a long time. The short-term surge and how long high prices can be sustained are two different issues. The former depends on the strength of the blockade, the actual supply gap, and market panic, while the latter also considers inventory release, demand destruction, production capacity, policy intervention, and economic downturns. Who said that historical peaks can seal oil prices?

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz, even if unprecedented, does not mean that oil prices can escape limitless supply and demand extrapolation. The market ultimately trades on how many barrels of supply decrease daily, how many days the blockade lasts, whether there are alternative transportation plans, how long inventories can sustain, and what actions countries will take. “Unprecedented” can only indicate higher uncertainty; it cannot directly lead to the conclusion that oil prices will definitely rise to 180 dollars or 200 dollars.

You said that no one can accurately predict whether it will be 140, 180, or 200 dollars, and I completely agree with that. So what I do is scenario judgment and risk control; I have not claimed to know the top of the oil price. On the contrary, while you claim there is no crystal ball, you also assert that this situation will inevitably break all historical frameworks, which logically is not more rigorous than mine.

Australia will not sit idly by; saying that high oil prices will force the government and the central bank to take policy actions does not mean it will definitely solve the problem, nor does it have anything to do with the so-called “leftist government.” As for the midterm elections, high oil prices alone certainly cannot determine the election outcome, but they will increase the inflation pressure and political costs for the ruling party. Even if you think losing at least one chamber is unavoidable, it does not mean the government lacks the motivation to lower gasoline prices and control losses.

You can disagree with my judgment and think my short position on oil is wrong. However, distorting probability judgments into price ceilings, saying risk tolerance is pure gambling, and using terms like “small-minded gambler” or “immature” instead of reasoning only indicates you want to vent your emotions without seriously discussing the issue.

The market will ultimately provide the answer, and my position and profits and losses will be borne by me alone.

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