In the past 48 hours, the crypto market has rarely focused on a token that has not yet landed on top CEX—HYPE. From a warning report by JPMorgan to massive unpledging by top institutions, and the founder Jeff Yan's "0-1 innovation philosophy," Hyperliquid (HL) is in a fierce battle between fundamental revaluation and short-term selling pressure.
As bullish and bearish forces clash at the $60 mark, how should we understand Hyperliquid's true value?
JPMorgan's Warning: The "Prisoner's Dilemma" of Stablecoin Distribution
The most surprising signal comes from traditional Wall Street giants. According to market observers, JPMorgan has recently downgraded its earnings forecast for Circle (CRCL) and Coinbase (COIN), with the core logic being that Hyperliquid's strong rise threatens Circle's USDC economic model.
In traditional understanding, exchanges are merely use cases for stablecoins, but Hyperliquid has completely changed the game rules with a mechanism that shares 90% of profits back to the protocol through AQAv2. This led JPMorgan to believe that stablecoin issuers are caught in a kind of "prisoner's dilemma": to gain liquidity, they must cede the vast majority of interest income to Hyperliquid.
Even more shocking data indicates that starting from August 26, the interest from USDC reserves will bring about $450,000 in passive buying pressure to HYPE daily. Compared to the weekend core trading revenue of about $500,000, this continuous "sleeping income" provides significant support for HYPE's fundamentals. As a well-known KOL said, if you want to be bullish on the stablecoin sector, you must pay attention to the fiercely contested territory of stablecoin distribution channels.
Valuation Rebuild: From "On-chain Contracts" to "Universal Exchange"
In the eyes of institutions, Hyperliquid is no longer just a simple decentralized exchange (DEX) for perpetual contracts.
A month ago, top crypto fund Multicoin Capital released a detailed valuation model for Hyperliquid. They believe the market mistakenly prices HL as a perpetual contract exchange, while it is actually building a "universal exchange." In this model, the benchmark target price for HYPE rises to as much as $319 by 2028, with a bullish scenario reaching as high as $689.
Renowned analysts also expressed optimism. They pointed out that just as Coinbase's contract business, though not as great as Binance's, can still represent exchange assets, Hyperliquid's core trading volume is sufficient to support its fundamentals, possessing very high allocation value below $50.
This confidence that transcends traditional DEXs comes from founder Jeff Yan's obsession with "going from 0 to 1." In a recent interview, Jeff Yan clearly stated that the team "has no interest in imitation" and is solely obsessed with building mechanisms that do not currently exist. Taking HIP-3 (permissionless deployment) as an example, he emphasized that this groundbreaking structure can create interesting synergies for protocols, deployers, and exchanges. In his view, data growth is merely a natural byproduct of innovation, and finding the next "0 to 1" is the most correct path.
Whale Movements: The Game of Fundamentals and Liquidity
However, behind the grand narrative and solid fundamentals, the short-term market's liquidity game is exceptionally brutal.
On-chain data shows that Multicoin Capital, which formerly shouted "319 dollars" in research reports, has just unpledged as many as 19,600 HYPE tokens (valued at approximately $12 million) from three wallets, and these tokens had only been pledged for two months. Coincidentally, just a few days ago, a wallet associated with a16z transferred $28 million of HYPE to exchanges, directly causing the price to plummet by 12%.
The two top funds taking the same action within the same week, while "un-pledging does not equal immediate selling," undoubtedly raised a Damocles sword in the short term.
Insights into Movements, Seizing Opportunities: The Advantages of AiCoin Data Terminal
When the long-term bullish fundamentals ($450,000 daily passive buying pressure, universal exchange narrative) encounter short-term institutional selling pressure ($12 million unpledged), ordinary investors often find themselves confused. In this market full of information asymmetry, those who can capture the flow of funds first can take the initiative in the bullish-bearish game.
This is precisely the core advantage that AiCoin Mobile can bring to you:
1. Smart Money Tracking System: In response to the movements of whales such as a16z and Multicoin, AiCoin’s on-chain data monitoring feature can promptly alert you to large transfer warnings. When will unpledged tokens move to exchanges? When will the selling start? You will know earlier than the news.
2. In-depth Analysis of Bullish and Bearish Data: During HYPE's price volatility, you can clearly see the true market sentiment through AiCoin's monitoring of large orders and long-short holding ratios, without being deceived by surface fluctuations.
3. Ultra-fast Trading Experience: Deeply integrated with major exchanges and on-chain liquidity, whether you want to bottom fish during institutional sell-offs or follow whales to evade risks, AiCoin allows you to perform millisecond-level operations on your mobile device.
In this market that is being monitored by JPMorgan, heavily invested by top institutions, and ruthlessly contested, cognition determines the lower limit, while tools determine the upper limit.
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