1. Today's news summary for July 18
1. Macro: U.S. inflation data came in below expectations, leading to increased market anticipation for a Fed rate cut in September, causing the dollar to weaken and improving sentiment for global risk assets, benefiting the crypto market concurrently.
2. Capital flow: Previously, the short squeeze trend continued, with approximately $281 million worth of short positions liquidated in the past 24 hours across the market, exceeding the amount of long positions liquidated, and short-term short squeeze momentum is still being released.
3. Capital direction: Bitcoin ETF fund flow has fluctuated recently, with the market exhibiting heavy wait-and-see sentiment, and the current spot buying pressure has not formed a sustained synergy, making the rebound highly dependent on leveraged funding.
4. Sector performance: Pi Network led with a daily increase of about 10%, while Layer 2 concepts like Polygon and Arbitrum performed relatively strongly; cryptocurrencies like OriginTrail and Safe saw significant drops, indicating clear market differentiation.
2. Overall market overview
As of around 14:30 Beijing time:
• BTC is priced at approximately $63,900, with a 24-hour slight increase of about 0.1%, fluctuating around the $64,000 mark
• ETH is priced at approximately $1,843, with a 24-hour increase of about 0.5%, showing slightly stronger performance than BTC
• SOL is priced at approximately $75.2, with a 24-hour increase of about 0.2%, in a range-bound consolidation pattern
The overall market is in a narrow fluctuation state, with light trading over the weekend and reduced trading volume, intensifying the competition between bulls and bears at key positions.
3. Daily strategy and entry point reference
1. Bitcoin (BTC)
Market characterization: The 4-hour level maintains a fluctuating upward structure, with $64,000 as the short-term dividing line for bulls and bears; strong buying support is present below, but resistance above is also quite dense.
• Key support:
◦ First support: $63,500 – $63,600 (intraday short-term support)
◦ Strong support: $63,000 – $63,100 (if broken, the short-term trend turns weak)
• Key resistance:
◦ First resistance: $64,200 – $64,300
◦ Strong resistance: $64,800 – $65,000
• Intraday reference strategy:
◦ If it stabilizes in the $63,200–$63,500 range during a pullback, you can trial a long position with a small amount and set a stop loss below $63,000.
◦ If it rebounds to the $64,200–$64,400 range facing resistance, you can short with a stop loss above $64,800.
◦ Target to sell high and buy low within the range, and follow the trend if it breaks through key positions.
2. Ethereum (ETH)
Market characterization: The $1,800 level has turned from resistance to support; the short-term rebound structure remains intact, but the mid-term downtrend line has yet to be effectively broken.
• Key support:
◦ First support: $1,820 – $1,825
◦ Strong support: $1,800 – $1,805 (bull-bear dividing line)
• Key resistance:
◦ First resistance: $1,855 – $1,860
◦ Strong resistance: $1,880 – $1,900
• Intraday reference strategy:
◦ If it stabilizes in the $1,810–$1,820 range during a pullback, you can trial a long position with a small amount and set a stop loss below $1,800.
◦ If it rebounds to the $1,845–$1,855 range facing resistance, you can short with a stop loss above $1,885.
◦ If it effectively stabilizes above $1,860, you can expect it to rise to around $1,900.
3. Solana (SOL)
Market characterization: Strong volatility, fluctuating in the $73–$77 range, with sufficient buying support below and expectations of catch-up, but it requires favorable movement from Bitcoin.
• Key support:
◦ First support: $74.0 – $74.3
◦ Strong support: $73.2 – $73.5
• Key resistance:
◦ First resistance: $75.8 – $76.0
◦ Strong resistance: $76.8 – $77.0
• Intraday reference strategy:
◦ If it stabilizes in the $74.2–$74.6 range during a pullback, you can trial a long position with a small amount and set a stop loss below $73.0.
◦ If it rebounds to the $75.8–$76.2 range facing resistance, you can short with a stop loss above $77.0.
◦ First target is $75.8, with further targets at $76.5–$77 range.
Additional notes:
1. Weekend market liquidity is poor, and needle-like price movements are likely; light position trading and strict stop-loss measures are recommended.
2. Continuous attention should be paid to the capital flow of Bitcoin spot ETFs and the movement of the U.S. dollar index, as these are core variables affecting short-term direction.
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