Cryptocurrency Market Performance
Currently, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is $2.18 trillion, with BTC accounting for 58.4%, which is $1.27 trillion. The market capitalization of stablecoins is $309.5 billion, a decrease of 0.25% in the last seven days, with USDT representing 59.47%.
CoinMarketCap reports that among the top 200 projects, most have seen a decline while a few have risen, including: BTC which dropped by 0.56% over the past week, ETH which increased by 4.7%, SOL which dropped by 4.7% over the week, HYPE down 11.43%, and LDO up 20.03% over the week.
Market Forecast (July 20 - July 26):
The RSI index stands at 42.62 (neutral, down from last week), the Fear and Greed index is at 28 (fear), and the Altcoin Season Index is at 54 (neutral).
BTC: $61,000 - $66,000
ETH: $1,800 - $2,000
SOL: $74 - $85
The current market is in a game period of "macro bullish" versus "policy uncertainty." The cooling of the U.S. CPI and PPI data in June briefly boosted risk assets, but there are still disagreements in the market regarding the Fed's subsequent actions.
Risk Warning:
Regulatory bill voting leads to market volatility.
Escalation of the US-Iran conflict suppresses risk appetite.
"Data blackout period" and derivatives leverage risks.
Current Understanding
Trump Pushes for the CLARITY Act, Key White House Advisor Resigns Due to Military Service
This week, U.S. President Trump publicly called for the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act in memory of the late Senator Lindsey Graham. The bill aims to establish a comprehensive regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market and has received support from industry giants, but is stuck due to strong opposition from the banking sector over the stablecoin yield provisions. At a crucial moment, the White House's top crypto advisor Patrick Witt will resign on July 24 to begin mandatory training with the National Guard JAG, adding uncertainty to the bill's prospects.US and UK Deepen Digital Asset Cooperation, Japan Officially Passes New Crypto Law
The US-UK Transatlantic Task Force issued a joint statement supporting regulated stablecoin innovation and exploring cross-border financing solutions for tokenized assets. Meanwhile, the Japanese Senate voted to pass a revised Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, officially incorporating cryptocurrency assets into financial products, and plans to unify the tax rate from a maximum of 55% to 20% by 2028, paving the way for ETF liberalization.SEC Meets with Hyperliquid and Others to Explore On-Chain Derivatives Regulation
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Crypto Working Group met this week with the decentralized perpetual contract platform Hyperliquid and TradeXYZ to discuss regulatory frameworks for decentralized perpetual markets. HYPE's price increased by about 4.4% on this news, having had similar contacts with the CFTC previously.US Government Transfers Nearly 4,000 Bitcoins to Coinbase Prime, Raising Concerns of Selloff
On-chain data shows that about 3,800 BTC (valued at approximately $288 million) and 30,000 ETH related to U.S. government seizure cases were transferred to Coinbase Prime this week. Although this move could be a custodial adjustment, the market remains highly alert to potential selling pressure.Bitcoin Spot ETF Ends Outflow, Records $181 Million Net Inflow
On July 14, the total net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $181 million, breaking a previous streak of outflows. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT led with a net inflow of $139 million in a single day.Market Sentiment Divergence: XRP, ETH FOMO Hits 5-Week High
Crypto analytics firm Santiment reports that the long-short ratio for XRP and ETH has reached a 5-week high, showing significant FOMO sentiment in the market. In contrast, Bitcoin's market sentiment is milder, with analysts suggesting this actually leaves more room for subsequent increases.JPMorgan: MicroStrategy Boosting Cash Reserves is a "Positive Signal"
MicroStrategy (now Strategy) increased its cash reserves to $3 billion through stock sales to address the unrealized losses on its Bitcoin holdings. JPMorgan analysts believe this move, along with positive capital flows in Bitcoin futures, is an "encouraging signal."Seven Major Projects Including Aave and Jito Face Key Catalysts This Week
Several leading projects have made important progress this week: Jito's perpetual contract platform JTX officially opened on July 14; Aave Labs' high-yield savings app is set to launch soon; Maple Finance initiated buyback voting linked to income; Pump.fun is facing a token unlock of over $100 million (accounting for 20.3% of circulating supply), viewed as a significant downside risk event.First Half of 2026 Sees $8.658 Billion in Crypto Primary Market Financing, with Active M&A
Data shows that total financing in the crypto primary market reached $8.658 billion in the first half of 2026, with 259 financing events. DeFi and infrastructure have been the most active sectors for financing, while the pace of M&A in the industry has accelerated, with 75 M&A events recorded.New Federal Reserve Chair's Congressional Debut and June Inflation Data Released Concurrently
Newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh attended a congressional hearing for the first time this week. The CPI data for June released on the same day showed a cooling inflation rate, with year-on-year growth slowing from 4.2% to 3.8%, and the lower-than-expected PPI data also alleviated market concerns about aggressive rate hikes, boosting sentiment for risk assets including cryptocurrency.
Macroeconomics
On July 14, the U.S. June unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate was recorded at 3.5% (previous value 4.2%), with market expectations at 3.8%; the U.S. June seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate recorded at -0.4%, the largest decline since April 2020.
On July 16, the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending July 11 was 208,000, with expectations of 217,000, and the previous value revised from 215,000 to 216,000.
On July 17, according to CME FedWatch data, the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is currently reported at 88.9%, while the probability of a 25 basis points rate hike is 11.1%.
Envisioning the Future
Industry Conferences
Canada Blockchain Week 2026 will be held from July 20 to 26 in Toronto, Canada.
Malaysia Blockchain Week 2026 will be held from July 29 to 30 in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia.
Conviction 2026 will be held from August 14 to 15 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Coinfest Asia 2026 will be held from August 20 to 21 in Bali, Indonesia.
Important Events
The U.S. Senate plans to initiate discussions on the CLARITY Act during the week of July 20.
On July 23 at 20:30, the U.S. will announce the number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending July 18 (in ten thousand).
Project Progress
LTP is set to officially launch the "Liquidity Arena 2026" AI Agent live quantitative trading competition on July 20.
Bitcoin mining company Cango will merge shares at a 10:1 ratio on July 20.
The decentralized contract exchange Grvt's token GRVT will be officially launched on July 21.
World will adjust the WLD token economics; starting July 24, the overall daily unlocking amount of WLD tokens will decrease from approximately 5.1 million to approximately 2.9 million, representing a 43% reduction.
Token Unlocking
Solv Protocol (SOLV) will unlock 398 million tokens on July 17, valued at approximately $1.06 million, accounting for 9.24% of circulating supply.
LayerZero (ZRO) will unlock 25.7 million tokens on July 20, valued at approximately $21 million, accounting for 4.6% of circulating supply.
KAITO (KAITO) will unlock 17.6 million tokens on July 20, valued at approximately $13.36 million, accounting for 4.3% of circulating supply.
aPriori (APR) will unlock 31.88 million tokens on July 23, valued at approximately $6.93 million, accounting for 11.28% of circulating supply.
SOON (SOON) will unlock 20.18 million tokens on July 23, valued at approximately $3.35 million, accounting for 3.91% of circulating supply.
SoSoValue (SOSO) will unlock 23.42 million tokens on July 24, valued at approximately $6.77 million, accounting for 6.78% of circulating supply.
About Us
Hotcoin Research serves as the core research institution of Hotcoin Exchange, committed to transforming professional analysis into your practical tools. We analyze market trends through "Weekly Insights" and "In-Depth Research Reports"; with exclusive columns like "Hotcoin Select" (AI + expert screening), we identify potential assets and reduce trial-and-error costs. Every week, our researchers will also meet with you live through live streaming to interpret hot topics and predict trends. We believe that compassionate companionship and professional guidance can help more investors navigate cycles and seize Web3's value opportunities.
Risk Warning
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and investments carry risks. We strongly advise investors to proceed only after fully understanding these risks and to invest within a strict risk management framework to ensure the safety of funds.
Website: https://www.hotcoin.com/r/Hotcoinresearch
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