Thursday Market Analysis: The bullish outlook for BTC remains unchanged, ETH is better positioned for low longs, and gold still favors shorting at highs.

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金哲川
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2 hours ago

Hello everyone, I am Lao Jin.

Next, how should the market move? Today we will focus on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and gold.

Bitcoin: 65700 is still the key pressure point determining the direction

The biggest focus on Bitcoin remains the weekly K chart.

If we want to see a beautiful bullish line this week, then 65700 must be effectively broken through.

This is not only an important support level previously but also the strongest pressure zone currently. Both bulls and bears have fought here multiple times, so it will not break easily.

Real upward movement does not happen with just one big bullish line but requires:

  • A strong bullish line with volume to open up space;

  • Then a doji to complete the handover;

  • Followed by another bullish line to confirm.

Only by completing this series of steps does the market qualify to challenge around 70000.

Before that, discussing the return of a bull market is still premature.

Four-hour movement: High shorts still dominate before confirming the pullback

From the 4-hour structure, the current movement still aligns with our judgment.

The big bullish line on July 14 broke the previous range, but after the breakout, it only completed one pullback confirmation near 64000.

One pullback is not enough.

If there is another pullback to:

  • 64000

  • 63500

  • Even around 63000

And can stabilize again, then this breakout will be considered truly effective.

Therefore, before the pullback confirmation is completed, I still lean towards:

Short at resistance levels, consider long at support levels.

Yesterday's short position near 65550 has already realized a profit of 1000 points, and we will continue to monitor:

  • 65700

  • 66000

  • 66300

These levels all have significant pressure and are not arbitrarily given levels, but important resistance zones formed by technical structure.

So the most comfortable trading method for Bitcoin currently remains:

Short at resistance, consider long at support.

Bitcoin trading ideas

Short focus

  • 65700

  • 66000

  • 66300

  • For the aggressive, consider around 67000

Long focus

Wait for price pullback:

  • 64000

  • 63500

  • Around 63000

Confirm the stop loss after stabilization before considering setting long positions.

Better to wait for opportunities than to chase prices.

Ethereum: The movement is clearly stronger than Bitcoin

Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's movement is much more attractive.

Two consecutive strong bullish lines on the 4-hour chart not only broke the consolidation platform but also began to form an upward structure.

It is now clear to see:

  • High points are continuously rising;

  • Low points are continuously rising;

This is a typical:

Higher highs, higher lows.

Indicating that market funds are gradually favoring Ethereum.

Therefore, Ethereum is currently more suitable for:

Long at pullbacks.

And not to chase shorts.

1900 becomes the most crucial support today

Today we will focus on observing around 1900.

If the price can stabilize quickly after pulling back to 1900, without breaking the support, then it will be a very good long opportunity.

At the same time, continue to observe today's 4-hour K chart.

If another strong bullish line appears, then the upward trend can basically be confirmed.

The subsequent target area will continue to focus on:

1990—2000.

The overall movement aligns more with:

Upward → Consolidation → Further upward

This healthy trend structure.

Gold: Bearish views remain unchanged

Gold was emphasized very clearly yesterday.

The overall trend still belongs to:

Pressure and support pulling back and forth. But the larger bearish trend has not changed.

Currently, pressure remains focused on:

4070—4080

If it rebounds to this level, we should prioritize setting short positions.

Whereas if it drops to:

3950—3960

Then short-term low longs can be considered.

Overall still insist on:

High shorts as the main strategy, low longs as a supplement.

Today's strategy summary

BTC:

  • Focus on short opportunities near 65700, 66000, 66300, and around 67000;

  • Consider setting long positions after stabilizing from a pullback at 64000, 63500, or 63000.

ETH:

  • Set long positions after stabilizing around 1900;

  • Focus on the target area of 1990—2000 above.

Gold:

  • Continue to short at 4070—4080;

  • Low longs for short-term at 3950—3960.

The market will never lack opportunities; what is truly important is to wait for your own position.

If it hasn't reached pressure, don't rush to short; if it hasn't reached support, don't rush to long. Patience in waiting for the market to provide answers is more important than frequent trading.

I am Lao Jin, see you in the next market analysis.

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