Yesterday, the CPI data from the United States relieved the entire risk asset market.

The U.S. CPI year-on-year for June recorded 3.5%, not only lower than the market consensus expectation of 3.8% but also far below the previous value of 4.2%. This unexpected cooling effect almost instantly reversed the tightening panic that had previously clouded the market. Traders quickly adjusted their pricing for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve within the year, the dollar weakened, and both U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies surged simultaneously.

By the close, the Nasdaq index rose by about 0.9%, Bitcoin ** rebounded from around $62,000 to near $65,000, and SK Hynix stocks staged a crazily described "big turnaround"—a single-day surge of 27%, sweeping away the gloom of the previous two days.

A company with a market capitalization exceeding one trillion dollars rose by 27% in a single day. This is not the trend of blue-chip stocks; this is the trend of meme coins. The extreme swings in market sentiment are vividly illustrated by Hynix's candlestick chart.

While the positive data is indeed gratifying, risk assets are likely to get a breather in the short term. However, if we shift our perspective from candlesticks to the dark lines in the options market, the medium to long-term risks may not have been completely eliminated by this CPI report.

1. Federal Reserve's Stance: Single Month Data is Not Enough, "Zero Tolerance" Position Remains Unchanged

Shortly after the CPI data was released, Federal Reserve Chairman Waller made his first public appearance at a congressional hearing. The market paid close attention to every word from this new chairman.

However, the message he conveyed was much harsher than the CPI number itself.

Waller made it clear that the Federal Reserve has a "zero tolerance" for persistently high inflation. He unreservedly defined the inflation being above the 2% target for the past five years as "the Fed's dereliction of duty" and emphasized that it would not change its judgment based on the improvement of a single month's CPI data.

Translation: Even though a 3.5% CPI looks good, there is still a long way to go before the Fed considers the "mission accomplished."

What does this mean? It means that the market's "rate cut euphoria" may have opened the champagne too early. The Federal Reserve's decision-making framework will not fundamentally shift just because of a single month's data cooling. If inflation fluctuates in subsequent months, Waller's hawkish stance could resurface at any time. A 3.5% CPI provides the market with a respite window, but it does not equal a pass that says "the Fed has turned."

2. Inflation Pressure has Not Been Relieved

The cooling of the CPI figure is one thing; whether the underlying driving factors of inflation have truly diminished is another.

First, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has once again heated up. The U.S.-Iran conflict has recently escalated again, and Trump has announced the reclosure of Iranian ports. Any risks involved in the Strait of Hormuz or disruptions to the supply from Middle Eastern oil-producing countries could quickly bring oil prices to higher levels, subsequently influencing global inflation expectations.

Second, crude oil prices have long been at high levels. WTI crude oil is currently maintaining around $80 per barrel. The transmission of oil prices to CPI has a lag effect—the current price of $80 for oil may only gradually show its full impact on inflation in the data over the next one or two months. In other words, the CPI data released in July may look good, but it does not mean that August and September will also be promising.

If geopolitical conflicts further push oil prices up, combined with the waning base effect, the inflation path in the second half of the year still has the potential for fluctuations.

3. What is the Options Market Saying?

The favorable CPI data pushed up stock and cryptocurrency prices, but if you look at the implied volatility structure in the options market, you will find a disturbing divergence.

SK Hynix: Recent IV is Far Higher than Long-term

Hynix's current implied volatility (IV) has surged to around 181%—a number so extreme that it is nearly crazy, typically only seen in highly speculative small-cap stocks or before major events.

More critically, the term structure: the IV of near-term options is significantly higher than that of long-term options. The specific data is as follows:

What does this "near high, far low" term structure mean?

It means that the options market is pricing in a judgment with real money: Hynix is likely to experience some news impact in the short term (within days to a week or two) that will cause significant stock price fluctuations. However, from a medium to long-term perspective, there is a lack of driving force to sustain a continuous rise in stock prices.

The recent high IV reflects "event risk"—which could be earnings reports, macro data, or sudden geopolitical changes. The drop in the longer-term IV indicates that options traders believe these shocks are short-term and non-trending. In the medium to long term, the upward momentum of Hynix's stock price seems to be lacking.

Bitcoin Options: Same Script

The options structure for Bitcoin has shown an almost identical form.

Although favorable CPI data pushed BTC prices from $62,000 to $65,000, the reaction in the options market was quite restrained:

• Recent Option IV: Slightly increased to about 35%

• Long-term Option IV: Maintained at 32%-33%, with hardly any improvement

What does this mean? It means that options traders believe the upward potential for BTC in the short term is catalyzed by the CPI data, but from a medium to long-term perspective, the market does not believe Bitcoin possesses the momentum for significant sustainable breakthroughs. The low performance of long-term IV reflects a lack of strong directional judgment on mid-term trends.

4. In Closing: Short-term Relief, Medium to Long-term Caution

Overall, a 3.5% CPI data indeed provides a release outlet for the currently tense market sentiment. In the short term, U.S. stocks and cryptocurrencies are likely to obtain a relatively tranquil window due to this data.

However, from a medium to long-term perspective, several key variables have not been resolved:

• The Federal Reserve's "zero tolerance" stance has not changed; single-month data is not sufficient to make it relent

• Geopolitical conflicts and high oil prices remain potential catalysts for a resurgence in inflation

• The term structure of the options market indicates high volatility risks in the near term, but insufficient upward drive in the medium to long term

The short-term relief is possible, but medium to long-term risks have not truly ceased.

For investors looking to position in the current environment, the BIT brokerage platform offers a toolbox for two-way operations:

• Financing Long: If you believe the CPI cooling trend will continue and risk assets have room for recovery—BIT offers no-interest intraday financing and overnight financing within a $20,000 limit at no interest.

• Securities Financing Short: If you think market sentiment is overly optimistic, and the rebounds in chip stocks and cryptocurrencies are unsustainable—BIT offers a limited-time $0 commission for short selling (until July 31), allowing you to test the bearish direction at low cost.

While CPI data brings short-term respite, do not forget to leave a backdoor for medium to long-term uncertainties.

Disclaimer: This article is written by an external author and represents the author's personal opinion, not the official position of BIT. BIT has not independently verified the data and analysis in the text, which does not constitute investment advice or solicitation. Financing and securities borrowing involve leverage and short-selling mechanisms, which may lead to losses exceeding the principal and carry the risk of forced liquidation. Promotional rates are limited to the activity period; specifics are subject to what is shown in the BIT App and may be adjusted after the activity ends. U.S. stock investment entry must comply with qualifications and regulations in the relevant jurisdiction. Past performance does not represent future returns; please make prudent decisions after fully understanding the risks.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。