There is basically no suspense about interest rate cuts this year. Although the old man continuously releases positive statements to stabilize market sentiment, what he truly wants to see is an interest rate cut, not a hasty action now. The Federal Reserve still does not have sufficient reasons to shift to easing before inflation has fully receded.
Yesterday, the market produced a long-awaited big upward move, and many people began to shout “W bottom” and “bull market returns.” However, the old man believes it is still too early to draw conclusions.
A big upward move cannot change the trend; a single rebound cannot reverse the direction.
From the daily and weekly charts, the overall structure is still bearish. The previous waterfall-like decline has disrupted the upward rhythm, and what we see now is more a technical recovery after a decline, rather than the beginning of a new rising phase.
From the candlestick patterns, we are currently in a typical stage of
“waterfall drop + range consolidation + directional selection.”
The market is still waiting for a new directional choice, rather than having completed a reversal.
A true W bottom requires at least three conditions to be met:
① Break through the consolidation zone with increased volume;
② Confirm with a pullback that does not break the previous low;
③ Then confirm the trend with a medium-sized upward candlestick.
Currently, these three conditions have not been fully met.
Looking to the upside, Bitcoin faces immediate resistance at 65000 and 65700, with every rebound encountering stronger selling pressure. If it fails to rally, the bears are likely to take the lead again and retest lower support levels.
The old man still maintains his original viewpoint: rather than blindly chasing highs, it is better to patiently wait for a rebound into the pressure zone and continue to pay attention to BTC short opportunities.
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