Good morning, friends. I am Sister Qinglan. Before today's opening, there are two significant pieces of news that are worth paying close attention to. First, the U.S. CPI data was lower than expected, and the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in July has plummeted to 20%. This is a strong signal of liquidity easing, directly benefiting risk assets like BTC. Second, the situation in the Middle East has taken a sharp turn, with Iran expanding its retaliation efforts. The Strait of Hormuz is now uncertain, and geopolitical risks are heightening risk-averse sentiment, bringing uncertainty to the market. With these two opposing forces in play, today’s market is set to be anything but calm.
Current Price and Time
The current time is July 15, 09:11. The latest price for BTC is 64722 USDT. The price has risen 3.67% over the past 24 hours, and market sentiment has rebounded against an extreme fear index of 25, but on-chain data shows a market share of 56.33%, indicating funds are still concentrating on BTC.
Multi-Cycle Overview
Looking at the daily level, MA5=63939.90, MA10=63678.72, MA30=62608.65, and the price is solidly above all moving averages. The MACD bar value is 477.15, with DIF crossing above DEA forming a golden crossover, and RSI=68.79 is close to the neutral strong zone. The daily structure shows a bullish arrangement, but RSI has not yet entered the overbought zone, indicating there is still room for upward movement.
At the 4-hour level, MA5=64384.91, MA10=63429.91, MA30=63753.46, the price is also running above the moving averages. The MACD bar value is 210.42, with DIF=218.14 and DEA=7.72, clearly showing a golden crossover, but the difference between DIF and DEA is considerable, indicating that short-term momentum might face correction. RSI=54.29 is in the neutral zone, suggesting the 4-hour level is not overheated.
At the 1-hour level, MA5=64825.67, MA10=64719.34, MA30=63481.31, the price is above the moving averages, with EMA55=63660.14; the current price of 64722 is far above EMA55. The MACD bar value is 50.57, with DIF=529.20, DEA=478.63, the golden crossover continues, but the bar value is beginning to shorten, indicating a weakening of upward momentum. RSI=80.18 has entered the overbought zone, which is a short-term warning signal.
At the 15-minute level, MA5=64828.08, MA10=64898.69, MA30=64703.54, the price is fluctuating near the moving averages. The MACD bar value is -36.91, with DIF=111.41, DEA=148.31, showing a death cross; RSI=49.48 has returned to neutral. The 15-minute level indicates short-term pullback pressure.
TPV Signal Verification
According to the Qinglan TPV system, we use the 1-hour EMA55=63660.14 as the boundary line between bulls and bears. The current price of 64722 is far above EMA55, and in the past 8 1-hour candles, the closing price was greater than EMA55 8/8 times, with 0 crossings. The absolute margin from EMA55 is 1.67%, which does not meet the fluctuation threshold, indicating that the market is in a clear bullish trend region.
Bullish Condition Verification: First, the price is stable above the 1-hour EMA55, with two consecutive candles closing above EMA55, condition met. Second, in terms of support stabilization, an effective low point rebound has formed near 63600 on the daily level, and there is a long lower shadow structure on the 4-hour level, condition met. Third, in terms of declining momentum exhaustion, the daily MACD bars are continuously expanding, although the 1-hour MACD bars are shortening, they are still in the positive area; RSI has rebounded from below 30 to 80, overall momentum is bullish. In summary, all bullish conditions are met, but the 1-hour RSI overbought warns of short-term risk.
Bearish Condition Verification: The current price is far above EMA55, and bearish conditions are not met.
Fluctuation Market Handling: In the past 8 1-hour candles, the closing price was greater than EMA55 8/8 times, with 0 crossings, margin 1.67%, which does not meet the fluctuation threshold, indicating that the market is in a trend.
On-Chain/Funding Situation
On-chain data shows that the fear and greed index is at 25, in the extreme fear zone, which is often related to market bottom areas. BTC market share is 56.33%, indicating that funds are concentrating on BTC under risk-averse sentiment. In terms of news, AI data center giants have made bulk purchases of 1032 BTC, indicating increased institutional demand, which is a long-term bullish signal. At the same time, the U.S. and U.K. plan to coordinate tokenization and stablecoin regulations, benefiting stablecoins and the overall ecosystem. However, negative factors such as the U.S. freezing Iranian digital assets and the escalation of the Middle East situation may trigger short-term risk-aversion selling pressure.
Key Attack and Defense Levels
The first resistance level above is at the round number of 65000, a psychological resistance level, and also a previous dense trading area. If broken, the next target is at the 66000-66500 area, the upper track of the 4-hour level channel. The first support level below is at 64000, which is the resonance area of the 1-hour MA30 and the 4-hour MA5. If broken, the second support is at 63660's 1-hour EMA55, which serves as the bullish-bearish boundary line; a loss here may indicate a weakening trend.
Trading Ideas
Based on the current bullish trend but with the 1-hour RSI being overbought, Sister Qinglan recommends taking a cautiously bullish strategy, waiting for a pullback to stabilize before entering the market.
Direction: Mainly bullish, but need to wait for pullback confirmation.
Entry Conditions: Wait for the price to pull back to the 64000-64200 range, observe whether the 1-hour candles show long lower shadows or bottom formation structures, while the MACD bars shorten during the pullback, and the RSI stabilizes from 80 to the 50-60 area, meeting the Qinglan TPV system's bullish conditions before entering the market.
Stop Loss Level: Set below 63600, that is, below the 1-hour EMA55; if broken, the bullish trend may end.
Target Levels: First target 65000, second target 66000.
If the price directly breaks through 65000 and stabilizes, you can chase the bullish position, moving the stop loss up to 64500, targeting 66000-66500.
Risk Warning
Geopolitical risks and the escalation of the Middle East situation may trigger sudden selling; be sure to control positions and set strict stop losses.
Follow Qinglan's crypto class to grasp more trading opportunities! Welcome to visit the official website www.qinglan.org
📊 Qinglan TPV Trading Strategy Backtest Reference
🕒 Last Backtest Time 07-15 07:00:01
Total Analysis: 2953 Backtests: 2296 Accuracy Rate: 76.1% (1748/2296)
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
