The only way yields are going significantly higher from here is with a massive repricing of a persistent acceleration of GDP growth.

The latest rise was due to a return of inflationary pressures, caused entirely by war/energy concerns.

If inflationary pressures from those factors abate, as I suspect they will, then yields should be fairly range-bound or even have a modest decline.

My best bet on yields is sideways.

This is due to my outlook for a resilient and dynamic macro backdrop, with a return of modest disinflation.

My next best bet on yields is down.

My lowest probability outlook for yields is up.

These are 3-6 month forecasts.

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