"Jiang Feng Trading Diary" Issue 2
Publicly record my market judgments every day, only sharing real trading logic, welcome everyone to witness together.
Yesterday, the market continued to decline, with Bitcoin dropping to around 61800, and Ethereum reaching a low of around 1748, successfully hitting the first target of the previous short position near 1850. Since the market did not provide an ideal entry point, yesterday’s strategy was not executed, and today I still maintain the original thought process.
In summary today: continue to focus on a bearish outlook, with a key focus on guarding against the sharp fluctuations caused by tonight's CPI data, participate with a light position, and control risks.
Key Levels for BTC
Resistance above:
63300—63600, 64600
Support below:
61800—60500—60000—59600
Key Levels for ETH
Resistance above:
1800—1810, 1850, 1880
Support below:
1750—1680—1640—1530
Today's Market Highlights
Yesterday, Bitcoin ETF switched back to net outflow, with a net outflow of about 425 million dollars in a single day. Meanwhile, the US CPI data will be announced tonight, which is also the biggest risk event in the market today.
The market currently generally bets that the Federal Reserve will take further action in September, and the policy expectations for the coming months have begun to affect market sentiment. Therefore, I believe the recent rebound is more suitable for finding short opportunities rather than blindly chasing highs or cutting losses.
Technical Analysis
From a daily perspective, Bitcoin has broken below the 21-day moving average (around 62900), and the short-term trend remains weak. The EMA55 daily moving average is around 65500, while the 63300—63600 area and the vicinity of 64600 still represent important short-term resistance.
The current price is temporarily operating near the middle track of the Bollinger Bands around 61800, but I believe that this support will soon break. If tonight’s CPI data exceeds market expectations, further declines to the 60500 or even 60000 area cannot be ruled out.
During the announcement of the CPI tonight, market fluctuations may significantly increase, so it is advisable to reduce positions, avoid emotional trading, and strictly implement risk control.
Do you think BTC will break upward or continue to decline after the CPI announcement tonight? Feel free to share your views in the comment section, and we will review and validate together tomorrow.
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