Yesterday, the market continued the typical **“early session squeeze, all-day drop” trend. Bitcoin opened with a quick rise, completing a round of short squeeze before gradually weakening throughout the day, ultimately closing with a long upper shadow and a large real body bearish candle**, indicating that selling pressure at high positions has significantly increased, and the daily adjustment has officially begun.
From the current structure, this round of adjustment has not yet ended. Even if a rebound occurs today, it is more inclined to be a technical repair rather than a trend reversal. If there is another quick rise during the session, it will likely still face selling pressure above, with a high probability of a pullback after the surge.
Last night's rebound strength also reflected market differentiation:
BTC only recovered to 30-minute level resistance before facing resistance again;
ETH rebounded to the 1-hour resistance area, overall performing slightly stronger than BTC.
The current market is at a critical node for directional choice, with both bulls and bears still vying for initiative. However, from a technical rhythm perspective, the bears temporarily hold a certain advantage.
Additionally, geopolitical risks are still fluctuating, and the upcoming important CPI data release from the U.S. has kept the market cautious. In the context of increasing macro uncertainty, risk assets are prone to suppression, which also provides room for short positions in the short term.
₿ Bitcoin (BTC)
View: Weak rebound, short on the rise.
The overall market is still running with a bearish inclination.
The 4-hour level has formed a relatively clear bearish structure, and it is expected that today will still mainly follow a downward fluctuation. If a surge occurs during the session, it is crucial to pay attention to whether there is a volume increase or stagnation near the resistance level, rather than blindly chasing longs.
It is essential to note that even if the market experiences a unilateral rise, as long as it is not driven by clear major positive news, one should be wary of the potential for fake outs in the current environment.
In terms of cycles:
Cycles below 8 hours have entered relatively low positions, which meet certain technical rebound conditions, and there is also a possibility of forming small-level resonance rebounds;
12-hour and daily levels still maintain a bearish cycle, so short-term rebounds are temporarily more suitable to be defined as repairs rather than trend reversals.
In terms of operating strategy, it is advisable to wait for a rebound to the key resistance area, then look for opportunities based on volume changes; if there is a quick retest of support, observe whether there is a stabilization signal, and avoid frequently chasing orders in the middle area.
Support levels to watch: 61500-62000, 60600-61000
Resistance levels to watch: 62700-63200, 63500-64000
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This article is published by [Huiying Community], representing personal views. Due to a certain delay in information transmission, the content is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. Please judge rationally and operate cautiously.
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